OFFICIAL LRC President Donald Trump SECOND TERM Thread

You think Trump would bring back a citizen? Why? He's already said the case should be appealed to president Bukele so presumably he'll do the same for a citizen accidentally deported.

1. President Trump did indeed win. Not a landslide, but a solid win in both the popular vote and the Electoral College.

2. The Dow did indeed drop a ton in 2022. It was not a correction but a reflection of--among other things--persistent inflation and central banks' raising rates in response.

3. The overvalued Dow almost certainly has been ripe for a correction for some time now. The current decline, however, is not that. It is a reflection of the very real uncertainty and conflict that President Trump has introduced, entirely unnecessarily, into the American and world economies.

There's nothing unnecessary about what Trump is trying to do. You can disagree with his method but calling it unnecessary is just ignorant.

The ends justify the means.

troll

It’s always both! Trump is always lying AND he is ignorant.

And for once, I agree with this statement. Trump's strategy is perfectly coherent. He wants to negotiate deals with other countries and, to do this, he needs cards in his hand to negotiate from a position of strength. The tariffs are just cards in his hand. They do not have to make sense, they have to be painful so that the leaders of the world will come begging at his door to remove them, and then he will be able to negotiate a good deal.

It is the strategy of a not very smart 3rd grader bully, but it is a completely coherent strategy, and it may even work in some cases.

There are a number of problems related to the U.S. and world economy. To whatever extent he correctly identifies and prioritizes the problems, then what he is “trying to do” can be deemed necessary. And I disagree with his methods.

But to the extent that he also conjures problems up out if his own mind (for example, his simple-minded view of every trade deficit in the world: “to me, a deficit is a loss”), then “what he is trying to do” is part of the problem.

(I disagree with what he’s doing in spite of your likely “no one knows how this is going to play out,” and my acknowledgement that I can’t read his mind about any plans for negotiation, I’ve heard him speak enough over the years and I’ve read enough to form a vague probability in my head about whether he and Navarro are the guys to figure out a better path that just escaped the notice of a large number of very bright people — which is not the same, you may know, as the classic cases of a lot of bright people being proven wrong by an iconoclastic thinker)

except.....trump needs the revenue from the tariffs to pay for his income tax cuts.

if we went to a free trade system without tariff income, there's really no way he could cut income taxes.

so that's not coherent at all. what is he negotiating *for* exactly? No one knows, not even trump.

The economy was going in the right direction: full employment, dropping inflation rates, retirement accounts gaining value. This is a genuine question and not an argument: Why was it necessary for President Trump to upend that?

“Many people are saying” the reason Trump is fighting tooth and nail to not return this immigrant that they admitted they wrongfully deported is because they can’t perform resurrections.

It would make sense.

But then againTrump and Stephen Milker may have too much integrity to work corruptly with El Salvador to make people permanently disappear that have damning information on how these deportations went down.

Trump is a perfect Machiavellian leader. He’s feared by the rest of the world. So he always comes from a position of strength.

You are trying too hard to find reasons and logic. The deal is the point. The substance of the deal does not matter, as long as it can be sold as a good one where we win and they lose. The point is to look bold and strong and be praised by the MAGA base (and maybe get a Trump Hotel here and a golf course here and there). If that drives the Libs nuts, that is extra bonus points. If it benefits America, that would be nice, but it is kind of irrelevant.

It’s based on flawed math and incorrect information.

that’s not necessary, ijiot

so your point is that trump IS negotiating for a deal.

Not necessarily a sensical, helpful deal. Just a deal that he can say 'look what I did, dad! A deal!'

in this sense 'a good deal' doesn't' mean a deal that helps anyone but himself. 'good' just means 'good for trump.'

yeah ok I suppose that fits his pattern.

You could see potential indications of a correction in market reactions to Mag7 earnings after big run-ups (beat on earnings, solid but not exciting guidance, market drop). That seems more in line with a correction in an overheated market that was also overreliant on Mag7 (and consider what had been happening with interest rates, currency, gold). But that doesn’t necessarily point to a correction as heavy as others we’ve seen in recent years. And the current “correction” has been n steep, and we’re far from assured that it’s near its end — as Fidelity’s head of macro said, “the knife is falling fast.”

Yes, the current drop is in response to a very specific action, and the correction is not going to be reversed quickly if chaos, mistrust, and uncertainty remain (obviously, unusual levels of mistrust and uncertainty) — or if the looming threat of these guides decision-making.

Actually, we do know trump's goal: eliminating trade deficits. That's it.

No trade deal will fix that, really. Hard to force other nations to buy more american stuff.

So if we're looking for coherence...I think Trump wants to keep the tariffs on, not take them off. He's not looking for free trade. He wants to make it so expensive for you and me to buy foreign products that we start making t shirts and shoes here.

Which is obviously not really possible and will cause enormous disruption and higher inflation on that road to nowhere.

I don't really see the offramp for trump, since the goal is eliminating trade deficits.

Maybe if the dollar crashes and we can't afford to buy imported products then the trade deficit will shrink. But that's a catastrophe of course.

Or maybe the 'deal' will be if they concoct some mechanism for foreign nations to be forced to buy more American stuff.

Stock indices are up BIGLY this morning! The crash is over, right Baghdad?