Down goes the Dow

Why are you talking to yourself?

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

How do you explain?

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Things are just marvelous.....

Latest forecast: 0.9 percent — March 15, 2017

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2017 is 0.9 percent on March 15, down from 1.2 percent on March 8. The GDP growth forecast declined 0.3 percentage points on Friday when the February estimate of the model's latent dynamic factor used to forecast yet-to-be released GDP source data declined after the employment situation release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The forecast for first-quarter real consumer spending growth inched down from 1.6 percent to 1.5 percent after this morning's retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Consumer Price Index release from the BLS.

I think you just answered your own question with that quote about growth in GDP and consumer spending.

Vai wrote:

The economy is cruising right along and getting stronger. A rate increase was a no-brainer.

Latest forecast: 0.9 percent — March 16, 2017

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2017 is 0.9 percent on March 16, unchanged from March 15. The forecast for first-quarter real residential investment growth inched down from 14.3 percent to 14.2 percent after this morning's new residential construction report from the U.S. Census Bureau.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

agip,

Kathleen Hayes of Bloomberg, one of the more thoughtful financial reporters asked the Chair how to square raising rates when hard data and GDP was declining. Chair Yellen response was, to paraphrase, "a lot of noise in GDP" and "committe would monitor incoming data."

My view is that any data that is presumed to be neutral will be Bullish for stocks. Bonds on the other hand continue to trade between deflation and inflation.

How's the running?

I am over my Achilles injury, back to a weekly routine of tempo, repetions/intervals and a long run. I have added two days of free weights/core on easy days.

Igy

I agree that there is a lot of noise in the GDP numbers - seems right.

good to hear that you are healthy and training well.

I'm not sure where I am. I had one good race, one so-so race, some good workouts and some disaster workouts.

I think my body is tired and needs a long break - hence the inconsistency.

But ready or not I'm heading into my peak season - two races the first half of April. I really don't know what to expect. I honestly would not be surprised if I kill it or if I am killed. Depends which day my legs show up on.

So right now I'm trying to do some workouts that are tough but doable, to get my confidence up and get used to strong efforts.

Then after mid April I will take an extended break from hard training.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Vai wrote:

The economy is cruising right along and getting stronger. A rate increase was a no-brainer.

Latest forecast: 0.9 percent — March 16, 2017

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2017 is 0.9 percent on March 16, unchanged from March 15. The forecast for first-quarter real residential investment growth inched down from 14.3 percent to 14.2 percent after this morning's new residential construction report from the U.S. Census Bureau.

Growth is good!

agip,

I do not know if this is true for others, but my experience has been with age comes more unpredictability. Seems like a somewhat neutral physical activity may set off a chain of bad outcomes. The only defense for me is more cautious loading and generous rest. One of my masters fiends says she "needs to schedule yard work as a hard day."

Best with the races. I am probably another month out.

Igy

I will bite my tongue on the concept of a "noisy GDP".

As a former engineer and filter network designer, I just hurl when I hear Yellen say something like that.

Let's talk distortion, or signal processing.

The published GDP number is a political tool, and a political tool only. It doesn't reflect any particular or consistent economic condition or activity, it represents a statement of policy direction, and that is ALL it represents.

It burns me that everything has shifted from investment to speculation. I'm right at the point in life where I want precisely the opposite. I will play along, for a bit, because there have been some gains to be made, but I am already looking to take the recent gains out of the country and ultimately beyond US jurisdiction.

I will be honest, the whole market situation scares the crap out of me. I have seen what is going on, and I have articulated some of my speculative reasons for the recent activity--but my reasons may not be correct at all, and activity can change rather quickly.

I'm nearly at the point where I would just dump the majority into conservative holdings--one of those "wealth preservers" I have been talking about. Nearly, but not quite, which pisses me off.

This will be a year where I will "sell in May and go away". While I'm confident that many others are confident, I will admit that I personally am scared.

No surprise. Typical behavior for IPOs.

Ah ya.

I'm interested in this GOOS IPO today - that brand is incredibly popular in NYC...not sure if it has made inroads elsewhere.

$900 jackets, and people snap them up.

crazy high valuation of course.

Andrew Ross Sorkin said he bought his Goose coat when it wasn't cool. Reminds me of Barbra Mandell, she "was country, when country wasn't cool."

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Andrew Ross Sorkin said he bought his Goose coat when it wasn't cool. Reminds me of Barbra Mandell, she "was country, when country wasn't cool."

And Igy, you were "down on the Dow" when it wasn't cool...or even warranted, but we know you will get the last laugh. Please tell us again that you will...

I remember readin' Grantham and Hussman

Even when they weren't in style

I remember surfin' Zero Hedge

When the market was really wild

And I was listenin' to Peter Schiff

When all of my colleagues were buyin'

FANG and Pharma

'Cause I was Bearish, when Bearish wasn't cool.

My apologies to Barbara Mandell....

Igy

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

I remember readin' Grantham and Hussman

Even when they weren't in style

I remember surfin' Zero Hedge

When the market was really wild

And I was listenin' to Peter Schiff

When all of my colleagues were buyin'

FANG and Pharma

'Cause I was Bearish, when Bearish wasn't cool.

My apologies to Barbara Mandell....

Igy

Your apologies go to your clients...just kidding...I know you have done great by them....please tell us again.

Ah, yah. His clients have mostly bailed.

Your portfolio will need an IV:

I was buying Snap at thiry-two

Even when they lost a half a billion

I remember surfin' Jim Cramer

When the market was really wild

And I was listenin' to Bob Pisani

When I should of been shortin'

FANG and Pharma

'Cause I was Bullish, when Bulish was cool.

My apologies to your future portfolio...

You should be apologizing to your clients. You've cost them a bundle.

Ben Dover wrote:

You should be apologizing to your clients. You've cost them a bundle.

There is no need to apologize for being prudent when others are foolhardy.

Of course you don't realize your foolishness because you have little experience.

Best wishes though.