Down goes the Dow

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

mellon wrote:

I'm sure your cash has made you and your clients a lot of money over the past (2) years.

Unfortunately, this maybe mellon's future.

When the Bear Market comes, it starts with a 10% decline, most here will be waiting for the bounce. They will breathe a sigh of relief on the first bounce, thinking it will be like August/September 2015 or January/February 2016. The following decline will be real Bear Market territory. Down 30%, many will feel it is too late to sell. Here is the punch line. Lastly, another notch lower, if we are lucky is stops down 50%, this thread will be quiet. In disgust, the Down Goes the Dow passive investors hit the sell button.

Unfortunately, this maybe mellon's future.

Finally, a comment that makes sense.

You should preface all of your comments with a "Maybe" instead of acting like you know what what's going to happen.

That is why you should buy Thursday's dip with idiot investor.

mellon wrote:

Unfortunately, this maybe mellon's future.

Finally, a comment that makes sense.

You should preface all of your comments with a "Maybe" instead of acting like you know what what's going to happen.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Your overused cliché is your intelligence marker.

Where's Irony Mann when you need him

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Helloooooo? wrote:

In other words, when things are high, they're going to eventually go down. Please tell us something we don't already know, Chicken Little.

Unfortunately, this maybe Helloooooo?'s future.

When the Bear Market comes, it starts with a 10% decline, most here will be waiting for the bounce. They will breathe a sigh of relief on the first bounce, thinking it will be like August/September 2015 or January/February 2016. The following decline will be real Bear Market territory. Down 30%, many will feel it is too late to sell. Here is the punch line. Lastly, another notch lower, if we are lucky is stops down 50%, this thread will be quiet. In disgust, the Down Goes the Dow passive investors hit the sell button.

You continue to underestimate the intelligence of "most here". We're not like your Muppet clients.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Gruntz wrote:

"Most here are destined to make the same mistake."

I think you severely underestimate the intelligence of most here.

"The market is way overpriced. It's not as intellectual as people would think, or as economists would have you believe."

--Robert Shiller, March 14, 2017

Unfortunately, this may be Igy's future.

Igy, on Memorial Day: Winter is coming, put on your jackets.

Igy's clients: Yeah, but it is nice now. Why should we?

Igy: Trust me, it will get cold. It always does, and the fool is left shivering.

Clients: You sure? OK, We will put on our coats.

Igy on the 4th of July: See, you are prepared for the cold.

Clients: Yeah, but we are sweating and dehydrating here.

Igy: Don't play the fool. You are prepared for the cold.

Clients: OK, but....

Clients rendered silent due to listening to Igy's fatal advice, but at least they won't be shivering.

My reply.

Here is what Jeremiahwabj is thinking, also known as Jere:

Jere today: I know Igy was kidding about buying on a Thursday dip, but lord knows I hope we get it.

Jere next week: I missed the getting in last week, so I will get in now. One hundred percent, that Igy was something else. How could someone with that much experience be so stupid?

Jere 1 month, 3 months, 6 months or one year, really doesn't matter: Gosh, that Igy may have been on to something, but I think we will come back. Besides I am only down 30%, but if only I had some CASH!

Jere, 6 months later: Now I am down 50%. I am out. This game is not for me. I am going to the bank and get a one year CD. I hear they are paying 3%. Better than losing my @$$. That IGY!

Igy

The truth is I got out on January 10th. Not necessarily the perfect time, bit I would guess not the worst time, either. I agree with much of what your view, but you do appear arrogant at times. You mock people who simply disagree with some of your views. Let us all admit that timing the market is only likely to occur generally, not with great precision.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

"The market is way overpriced. It's not as intellectual as people would think, or as economists would have you believe."

--Robert Shiller, March 14, 2017

I'm guessing that you don't realize that this supports my point and undermines yours.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Maserati,

OK, I think your opinion represents the consensus view, for the most part.

However, stock market performance, consumer confidence and peak employment are all lagging economic indicators.

Igy

My view is my view only, and I have articulated it here and given my reasons.

Again, one key aspect of my view is that "economic" conditions do play a role in pricing, but one must understand that there are business economies, social economies, personal economies, and institutional economies, all of which have different dimensions, and all of which guide the investment decisions of a particular entity, be that entity an individual, a fund, an institution, a sovereign, etc.

When assessing price levels, it's useless to reduce "economic conditions" to a global "national economic conditions" metric.

Consider effective market participants and their economies: nation-states, sovereign wealth funds, hedge funds, pension funds, investment banks, central banks, etc. For the past while their "economic conditions" have dictated a ceding of control to algos. Price levels are now controlled by this factor, and by their economies--not by the mom-and-pop household economy, not by the GM auto-industry economy, etc.--and they have clearly indicated that algo trading best represents their economic interests at this time.

The buy-in is nearly universal, if not actually universal, among those whose decisions make any identifiable impact on aggregate markets.

"Lagging indicators", indeed. By how long are they lagging, Igy? By 9 years?

You can't just throw around terms like "economic conditions" without specifying what you mean, or they will be just as likely to be used in opposition to your position, as has just been shown.

Jeremiahwabf,

OK, fair enough. Many of the comments to me are in mocking tone. Like your post for example. Perhaps that is a generational thing and perhaps not your intention.

Furthermore, there is some history here. "Some" who disagree is a certain troll who uses a variety of handles, and has done some really nasty things to me. That person does not deserve a level of respect that is not given. I could never imagine doing the things he has done. The Moderators have taken action to curb his activities.

Lastly, in respect to market timing I have no real particular view, other than to say a Bear Market is long overdue. Fed policy has encouraged another bout of speculation similar to the Technology and Housing Bubbles. Excessive valuation leading to more excessive valuation only means the reversion to mean will be greater. On November 7, 2016 the market was roughly at the same level when I first posted here March 2, 2015. So unless one has concrete evidence that the move since that date is sustainable, it means nothing unless you book your gains.

Igy

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

1 month, 3 months, 6 months, one year, or by the end of the century, really doesn't matter: Gosh, that Igy may on to something

Maserati,

OK, I understand your point.

I feel those that control institutional trading believe as you do. The passive retail investor is just liquidity to the system. Most institutional investors fall into the same trap.

When I think of the algorithmic trading, keyed-in on words in Fed or Trump statements. Equity positioning based on what others are doing. Risk parity funds, low volatility of the Vix. "Thirty somethings" with no fear or experience running trading desks. Reminds me of Long Term Capital Management, more arrogance than process.

In regards to your theory, the only way the Ponzi is maintained is that everyone believes that "their" investments can be sold to a higher bidder. Since someone has to hold each share of stock, surely you must see the fragility of this game.

I believe where you are wrong is the confidence you have that the game is sustainable.

Very seriously, I trust that this is something you are playing with, and not betting on an outcome.

Igy

Have you ever had an original thought, or do you just constantly mimic the talking points of those permabears whose altars you kneel at?

And which carnival barker's potion are you buying.

Certainly not yours, Igy.

Your Kool-Aide is just a different flavor.

Detector Dude wrote:

That was actually Igy who stole your handle. He's become the thread's primary troll.

The real Igy left the thread months ago.

From 6/21/16...

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Big,

Done with you insinuations and accusations.

Done with the host of people that can't handle anything other than "the market is going up."

Done with Down With The Dow.

Igy