I would answer this if you were a genuine person earnestly asking, but you are a disinformation troll. You have no interest in the accuracy of information.
I would answer this if you were a genuine person earnestly asking, but you are a disinformation troll. You have no interest in the accuracy of information.
real info wrote:
arnold palmer wrote:
How is he wrong with a prediction of 61,000 deaths and the actual being 60-100k? That’s what we golfers call an eagle. That’s teeing it up from 550 yards and dropping it 2 feet pin high. A hell of a lot closer than anyone else I’ve heard.
61,000 wasn't his prediction. 61,000 was a number he thought was so outrageously unlikely that he would shut up and admit defeat if we got there. Which won't be long now, unfortunately.
While data wonks were predicting 23000000 million infections and 2.2 million deaths, facts matters said he would be surprised to see deaths above 1819 Flu season. Which so far hasn’t happened. Which means as of right now his estimates have been light years closer. Guess what, he hasn’t had to adjust his models once.
All the people pointing at this number he provided as a reference and who are salivating as we approach it are all coming off as very desperate, you must like not working.
sreipe111 wrote:
real info wrote:
61,000 wasn't his prediction. 61,000 was a number he thought was so outrageously unlikely that he would shut up and admit defeat if we got there. Which won't be long now, unfortunately.
While data wonks were predicting 23000000 million infections and 2.2 million deaths, facts matters said he would be surprised to see deaths above 1819 Flu season. Which so far hasn’t happened. Which means as of right now his estimates have been light years closer. Guess what, he hasn’t had to adjust his models once.
All the people pointing at this number he provided as a reference and who are salivating as we approach it are all coming off as very desperate, you must like not working.
typed out the last one wrong, so reposting:
lol he did not.
his first post was about how like 500 people had died of covid and 24,000 had died of flu. he said that showed that it was a FACT that more people die of the flue can covid19. even when 1,000+ started dying per day he continued to cite the 24,000 number as PROOF that this was no worse (and indeed, better) than the flu.
the experts estimated between 480,000 - 2.2 million deaths if there was no social distancing whatsoever. obviously the range was large because they had to hypothesize about how many people would be infected and the mortality rate. considering with all the stay at home orders and social distancing, we're still looking at maybe 100,000 deaths shows that at least the lower end of that range was probably correct. despite severely cutting down transmission rates, we're still gonna see 20% of damage. would have been much worse if every american city overloaded its medical system like madrid, nyc, italy, etc.--that was part of the basis for the high estimates.
facts matter is a dummy. this is undeniable.
Social distancing? Where do you live. In Washington social distancing means waiting in line at target or Home Depot. It also means packed crowded walking trails. It also means order every meal and have it delivered by a perfect stranger.
Things are so bad yet we are relaxing restrictions in coming weeks.
My homeless brethren are doing just fine, ask them what social distancing is.
This on top of the fact that our government lies to us routinely I just find it hard to believe that this Pandemic is what they say.
One death is a tragedy, a thousand deaths is a statistic. Despite the fact that dead people vote and numbers are cooked all the time people still want to believe our death toll tally. That’s fine.
But when other people question a government that lies routinely either by omission or fabrication don’t call them conspiracy theorist. You sound like wooly fascist clicking your heels and shouting Hail!
Despite everyone knowing nothing about this virus, both sides take an unequivocal stance, I guess its human nature to settle for the appearance of control
I however will listen to a certified retard over msm anchors any day of the week
sreipe111 wrote:
I however will listen to a certified retard over msm anchors any day of the week
well i think i spotted your problem!
Nope sorry.
You're forgetting one thing- conservatives believe that feelings are far more important than facts, and so far conservatives don't FEEL like coronavirus is a real threat.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/nearly-150-people-without-symptoms-test-positive-for-coronavirus-at-homeless-shelterFact Smatter . wrote:
You're forgetting one thing- conservatives believe that feelings are far more important than facts, and so far conservatives don't FEEL like coronavirus is a real threat.
"Of nearly 400 people tested at the Pine Street Inn earlier this month, 146 people tested positive for the virus. None of those who tested positive showed symptoms".
How do you explain this?
146 homeless people out of about 400 is only a 36.5% infection rate.
Homeless people are not known to practice personal hygiene or to follow the rules like social distancing compared to the average person.
And then all 146 homeless people have no symptoms with a 0% death rate.
This seems to suggest that the hysteria over COVID-19 is overblown and exaggerated when you have 0 deaths among a large homeless population.
Didya read the article, or just the headline?
facts and reason wrote:
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/nearly-150-people-without-symptoms-test-positive-for-coronavirus-at-homeless-shelterFact Smatter . wrote:
You're forgetting one thing- conservatives believe that feelings are far more important than facts, and so far conservatives don't FEEL like coronavirus is a real threat.
"Of nearly 400 people tested at the Pine Street Inn earlier this month, 146 people tested positive for the virus. None of those who tested positive showed symptoms".
How do you explain this?
146 homeless people out of about 400 is only a 36.5% infection rate.
Homeless people are not known to practice personal hygiene or to follow the rules like social distancing compared to the average person.
And then all 146 homeless people have no symptoms with a 0% death rate.
This seems to suggest that the hysteria over COVID-19 is overblown and exaggerated when you have 0 deaths among a large homeless population.
I have no idea what these results mean. I can't find anymore info beyond one news article with sparse details, so I can't scientifically appraise them. One possible explanation is that the cases were presymptomatic, but barring more details I can't say.
In any case, we have larger samples from several different sources, including several counties in New York State and Italy, that point to an IFR between 0.5 and 1%. Furthermore, we have a fundamental floor of IFR based on the population of NYC of 0.1%.
You are such a liar and you keep repeating the same lie. First of all, I didn't start with 24,000, when I first started, the CURRENT flu season deaths were at 20,000 and the first number I quoted were 2018/2019 deaths of 34,200. I already explained directly to you what those numbers represent and what my point was in using them so now you are just making things up. It's a shame people are really so stupid that they cannot follow more than one idea at a time.
Here it is for the last time. Those that have an IQ above 60 will understand. Those with low IQs will spout some ridiculous crap about goalpost moving or whatever they can think of because the facts are undeniable.
First of all, your not telling the truth. The flu season is October through March and the majority of flu deaths happen in February every year since 1982. To state that the coronavirus killed in 1/7th the amount of time is factually incorrect.
Peak Month of Flu Activity1982-1983 through 2017-2018
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/images/flu-peak-activity-updated.jpgBut that's not the point anyway. Please pay attention.
1) The flu has killed 24,000, which is more than 14,200 and no one is panicking about the flu
2) The flu killed 61,000 people during the 2017/2018 flu season, the coronavirus will not kill that many.
3) 162 children ages 0-4 have died from the flu and no one cares
Let's take them 1 at a time so you can understand.
1) You are making my point right now by asking what I will do when it hits 24,000. If 24,000 is such a huge number of deaths, that the coronavirus is working so hard to get to, why don't you care about that number RIGHT NOW as it pertains to the flu? That's the point. You keep telling me how many people the coronavirus is killing daily and weekly, yet it STILL has not caught up. Look how hard it is to get to that many deaths. Why no lockdowns when the flu numbers start peaking in February each year? Why wasn't there a lockdown when the flu hit 10,000 or 15,000? Why didn't you care about 20,000 flu deaths last month? The point of the 24,000 is not that it's some magic number, it's that there is NO PANIC from flu deaths and there is major hysteria over COVID-19 deaths. That fact will not change even if COVID-19 hits 24,000. If the COVID-19 deaths equal the flu deaths for this season, unless we suddenly start a panic over the flu deaths, it does nothing to change the point being made. No one panics over the flu, even when it's killing more people than the coronavirus. Which it still true this very second and you still don't care.
2) Pretty self explanatory, if the coronavirus is more deadly than the flu, it has to kill more people than the flu. I have maintained this even during the "millions of death" models and projections. When I was asked what will it take for me to admit I was wrong, I very clearly said 61,001 coronavirus deaths, which is 1 more than the CDC reported for the 2017/2018 flu season.
https://imgur.com/9tbsGKs3) This one is the most pathetic. One infant dies from something, possibly COVID-19 related and there is media hysteria and sensationalism. 162 infants dead from the flu and you can hear a pin drop. Children's hospitals are getting hit HARD from pediatric flu admissions this season. Younger adults are also getting affected by the flu, unlike COVID-19. According to the CDC, laboratory confirmed influenza-associated hospitalization rates for children 0-4 years and adults 18-49 years are the highest CDC has on record for these age groups, surpassing rates reported during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. Yet, no one cares! They further state: "162 influenza-associated deaths in children have been reported so far this season. This number is higher than recorded at the same time in every season since reporting began in 2004-05, except for the 2009 pandemic.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htmMy argument is about the response to COVID-19 in comparison to the response to the flu. Every single day, for almost 2 1/2 months since I first posted, the flu has more deaths than the coronavirus, including today and no one cares. 24,000 deaths doesn't really bother anyone, or people would have rushed to get a flu shot and encouraged others to do the same. They would be talking about flu safety and how to keep infants protected. None of this is happening. All you are doing is waiting around, watching the death meter and hoping it gets to 24,000 so you can rush to post "I told you so." Unfortunately for you, you're going to have to really crank up the ghoulish death watch a while longer because, in order for your dream scenario to come true, the coronavirus has to kill more people than the flu has and that's 61,001 people. If you want to prove me wrong about point #1, go back in time and start panicking over the flu when the numbers started going up.
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At that's left is for the reasonable people to sit back and laugh at how wrong you are.
Facts Matter? wrote:
First of all, your not telling the truth. The flu season is October through March and the majority of flu deaths happen in February every year since 1982. To state that the coronavirus killed in 1/7th the amount of time is factually incorrect.
blah, blah blah.
But I do hope you remind your fellow travelers who are claiming it is a conspiracy that flu deaths have dropped precipitously in April that this is what they do every single year. They've been trotting that out a lot lately.
I don't laugh. I recoil in horror at someone who acts smuggly superior about a rising number of children dying of flu. I thought even trolls on the Kremlin's payroll wouldn't go there.
Facts Matter? wrote:
First of all, your not telling the truth. The flu season is October through March and the majority of flu deaths happen in February every year since 1982. To state that the coronavirus killed in 1/7th the amount of time is factually incorrect.
Peak Month of Flu Activity1982-1983 through 2017-2018
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/images/flu-peak-activity-updated.jpg
I'm not convinced this chart means what you think it means.
It doesn't say that the majority of flu deaths have happened in February every year since 1982, it says that February is the month which most often has had the most flu deaths.
The months that are not registering on this chart don't indicate they never have any flu deaths, just that they've never been the peak month.
Fact Smatter . wrote:
At that's left is for the reasonable people to sit back and laugh at how wrong you are.
And by "reasonable" you mean sheep, right? ?
Everyone is coming to realize that the coronavirus has been around a lot longer than thought. Since January in California and something I said in February. That's a 2 month head start, but social distancing is the reason the death toll is so low.
Yeah right, got it.
Antibody testing is showing infection is far more widespread than thought, something I said in January. Even at 2% that's 2 out of every 100 people walking around in Walmart, touching things and spreading the virus. Standing 6 feet apart is a joke.
Yeah, right, got it.
A woman leaves her house one time and gets COVID-19 from the credit card reader pad in the pharmacy and you all believe standing 6 feet away from someone is going to affect how the virus transmits.
Don't wear a mask, wear a a mask.
Don't go outside but stand in line outside
Only get groceries when you need them but check the stores every day for toilet paper and hand sanitizer.
I may ultimately be proven wrong that it will not kill more people than the 2017/2018 flu, but what I am NOT wrong about is the unnecessary panic and overreach, which is STILL the point. I am not wrong about the media causing panic and feeding a false narrative. What I am not wrong about is the BS cover story for why the death toll is so low, as I predicted it would be 3 months ago. And I am still not wrong about the coronavirus not being that deadly and if you still believe the social distancing nonsense, you are a fool. If you still believe the lockdown measures were appropriate to the threat, you are a bigger fool.
And finally, thanks for the thread in honor of me. In case you have not noticed, I love attention. I created 4 threads that all have over 200 posts, some over 300 and one over 1100, It's obvious you all love hearing from me and love the content I provide. I will for sure continue doing that because this isn't over. ?New testing will reveal exactly how right I was from the beginning. ? The Brojos should thank me for the content. I know I have changed the minds of MANY people on this site and I'm glad they are smart enough to get it. Those that want to live with blinders on are a lost cause. We are not at 61,001 yet and everything I said months ago has happened and you are just buttsore because you were wrong. The millions of death people were wrong. The healthcare system crash people were wrong. The 20% death rate people were wrong. The 3% death rate people were wrong. Were are those people now? I'm pretty sure they are the same cowards now posting under a new alias and hoping people die so they can feel good about themselves.
1)The CDC conveniently stopped posting flu numbers on April 6 so I don't know how many people have died from the flu so far, but whatever number it is, NO ONE is or was panicking over it.
2) 61,000 is still more than 51,000 and even RIGHT NOW, no one cares about the 61,000.
3) Now, 169 children ages 0-4 have died from the flu. Hospitalizations of pediatric patients are through the roof. Not one word from the media.
All still true, all still relevant. All still the point!
Thank you!
what a sad, sad man
trollism wrote:
Facts Matter? wrote:
First of all, your not telling the truth. The flu season is October through March and the majority of flu deaths happen in February every year since 1982. To state that the coronavirus killed in 1/7th the amount of time is factually incorrect.
Peak Month of Flu Activity1982-1983 through 2017-2018
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/images/flu-peak-activity-updated.jpgI'm not convinced this chart means what you think it means.
It doesn't say that the majority of flu deaths have happened in February every year since 1982, it says that February is the month which most often has had the most flu deaths.
The months that are not registering on this chart don't indicate they never have any flu deaths, just that they've never been the peak month.
It doesn't matter. Any fact is malleable if bending it enough will prove a point.
But it's the social distancing bro!!!!!
"It was here well before New York City reported its "first" case on March 1, possibly as early as late January, researchers from Northeastern University say. They gave their model data to The New York Times, which reported nearly 11,000 may have been infected in the city by the time Gov. Andrew Cuomo and Mayor Bill de Blasio jointly announced our "patient zero."
"The horse had already left the barn" by the time the nation shut down, Cuomo said Friday. He cited research on the number of flights (13,000, carrying over 2 million people) from Europe, the globe's second hot zone after China, to New York and New Jersey between January and March."
By the way Facts Matter...
You can argue that the lock down is unwarranted without resorting to fake news, false equivalencies, logical fallacies, etc. Reasonable people have done this from the beginning. Notice that I have NEVER advocated for one policy position over the other, I have simply provided analysis and fact checking regarding epidemiology.
Reasonable people want innovative solutions that will strike a balance between safety and economics.
This is my favorite twitter follow so far: