Jeff Wigand wrote:
I'm not sure you can draw a straight line from one to the other.
Best times per year in this decade:
Great, thanks for the numbers. What straight line are you talking about, Jeff?
Rekrunner will scold us for going off-topic in this (lack of) sub-12:50 thread, but since you started it:
1. The 800 is mid-distance, and likely benefits more greatly from steroids than the long distances. When the last world record there was set in 2012, the ABP didn’t include the steroid module yet. And Kenya had even worse OOC testing than now. Plus, it was under Diack.
2. The half and the full marathon are road races; that’s where allegedly the talents went. Plus, blood doping may be less important, for they are a lot slower than vVO2max. Yet, the last world record in the full marathon was under Diack, and the last one in the half doesn’t even show up in your list, for it’s too old. The fastest half in this decade was in 2011.
Somewhat strange, that there were no improvements in those road races after 2014, what with all the talents leaving the track for the marathon, or even going straight to it. All hopes for a WR seem to rest on the oldies Kipchoge and Kipsang and Bekele, who will soon run out of time.
In any case, the 800 show pretty much the same decay like the 5000 after the scandal, and the road races have the same tendency (if nothing else happens this year), albeit to smaller extents according to your numbers.
800 m: average 11 – 14: 1:41.77; average 15 – 18: 1:42.53 (+0.7%); fastest in 2012.
5000 m: average 11 – 14: 12:51.52; average 15 – 18: 12:57.40 (+0.8%); fastest in 2012.
Half: average 11 – 14: 58:45; average 15 – 18: 58:49 (+0.1%); fastest in 2011.
Full: average 11 – 14: 2:03:33; average 15 – 18: 2:03:39 (+0.1%); fastest in 2014.