How badly is Ossoff going to lose the special election in Georgia's 6th District?

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8 years ago 06/21/2017 6:42am EDT

re: and in a local perspective

and in a local perspective wrote:
I live about a mile outside the district. It's going to be a turnout game. Ossoff got 48% the first time, he'll hold those. Handel got 19% but the Republicans will gather around her so that gives her 52% if she holds all of them (results from the first time around here)
http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/67317/Web02-state/#/
.
Trouble is she's run for a lot of offices in GA and made some enemies of some on the R ticket. I think an automatic conversion of all 52% is improbable. She's probably got a solid 48% of folks who will show up and vote the party line, but there are just enough folks who won't that it's really toss up.
Soft math shows it's basically going to come down to retirees (R) vs soccer moms (D). There's a lot of both in this district, so who shows up to vote.
Its going to rain tomorrow. That typically depresses turnout.
Some polls show a slight edge in in person early voters favoring Democrats (based on party affiliation only). Absentee mail in ballots favor R's - but that is based on mailed out, not total returned...
It's going to be a nail biter, and if any of you have watched GA election results, they don't come in very fast. We should know tomorrow night, bit it may well be a wee-hours of the morning call too.
AJC has a paywall, but here's a quick story on their free site on the early voting turn out:
http://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/unprecedented-early-vote-ahead-georgia-6th-district-runoff-foretells-huge-turnout/9JEzcwhat5jQEAWj7s6OSL/

OK -- you win. Well done.

8 years ago 06/21/2017 7:42am EDT

re: The News with Brian Williams

The News with Brian Williams wrote:
and in a local perspective wrote:
I live about a mile outside the district. It's going to be a turnout game. Ossoff got 48% the first time, he'll hold those. Handel got 19% but the Republicans will gather around her so that gives her 52% if she holds all of them (results from the first time around here)
http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/67317/Web02-state/#/
.
Trouble is she's run for a lot of offices in GA and made some enemies of some on the R ticket. I think an automatic conversion of all 52% is improbable. She's probably got a solid 48% of folks who will show up and vote the party line, but there are just enough folks who won't that it's really toss up.
Soft math shows it's basically going to come down to retirees (R) vs soccer moms (D). There's a lot of both in this district, so who shows up to vote.
Its going to rain tomorrow. That typically depresses turnout.
Some polls show a slight edge in in person early voters favoring Democrats (based on party affiliation only). Absentee mail in ballots favor R's - but that is based on mailed out, not total returned...
It's going to be a nail biter, and if any of you have watched GA election results, they don't come in very fast. We should know tomorrow night, bit it may well be a wee-hours of the morning call too.
AJC has a paywall, but here's a quick story on their free site on the early voting turn out:
http://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/unprecedented-early-vote-ahead-georgia-6th-district-runoff-foretells-huge-turnout/9JEzcwhat5jQEAWj7s6OSL/
OK -- you win. Well done.

Except we knew who won by 8:00PM last night.

8 years ago 06/21/2017 7:46am EDT

re: Few others left to blame

Few others left to blame wrote:
Will the big loser (finally) be Pelosi??

Yep, Pelosi seems to have been the drag that cost Ossoff the victory.

Nancy Pelosi was a huge drag on Ossoff. The most prominent and effective hit on the Democratic candidate was to tie him to the congresswoman from San Francisco.
Republican operatives say that 98 percent of voters in the 6th District already had an impression of Pelosi when they conducted their first internal poll, and she was 35 points underwater. When presented with the choice of whether they wanted a representative who would work with Paul Ryan or Pelosi, six in 10 picked the Speaker and three in 10 picked the minority leader.

The Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC aligned closely with Ryan, spent more than $7 million in Georgia. â€œCLF tied Ossoff to Pelosi and her liberal agenda early and often, echoing the message on television, digital and radio advertising, as well as campaign literature and direct mail,â€ Corry Bliss, executive director of the group, writes in an after-action report that will be widely distributed later today. Other outside groups and Handel also focused on this theme.
Dave Weigel obtained the mailers that the group sent into the district, and Pelosi is dominant in each. Here are three examples of how they used her:

Some Democrats expressed concern last night that Pelosi will be a drag on their hopes of winning the House next year. One liberal writer for Vox suggested last night that it is time for her to go:
Pelosiâ€™s deputy chief of staff fired back:
Right, let's abandon the party's best $ raiser & consensus builder cause Rs don't like a Democratic woman that gets things done

Well, I guess raising money is more important than winning elections for Dems these days?

They also blame Ossoff trying to appeal too much to moderates.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/daily-202/2017/06/21/daily-202-democrats-despondent-trump-emboldened-after-gop-victory-in-georgia-special-election/59497f2fe9b69b2fb981ddc6/

8 years ago 06/21/2017 7:49am EDT

re: Runningart2004

Runningart2004 wrote:
The fact that this is even a story and is within 5% is a big deal.
Handel wasn't going to lose this race. She's a career politician in a district which has been Republican since before Wejo was born. But a 30 yr old noob nobody made her sweat and made this a news story.
It's not about GOP vs DEM though....it's about a stand against the old guard. Nothing is safe anymore.
Alan

As predicted in my post below prior to the election, let the Dem spinning begin!

Georgia is a Red State!!!!! wrote:
Well, it looks like Handle is going to get a close win now as she inexplicably has decided to not assault anyone which would've guaranteed a Yuge win for her and the GOP. Instead, we'll get a win by < 5 points which will be interpreted by the fake news outlets as 1) a harbinger of things to come in future elections (the GOP is doomed!!!) 2) that Trump is unpopular (LOL!!! Still has 80%+ support in GOP polls) 3) as somehow a win for the Dems (I guess a close loss is a win if you're a serial loser like the libs).
#MAGA

This is not the f*%cking USTAFs or the Olympics, there is no medal for second. A loss is a loss. Deal with it DemonRATS! #MAGA

BTW, Alan thank you for your service. How's the weather down there in Texas today?

8 years ago 06/21/2017 7:51am EDT

re: Georgia is a red state!!!!!

This is not the f*%cking USTAFs or the Olympics, there is no medal for second.

No, but it still pays well, with the leftovers from the campaign war chest.

8 years ago 06/21/2017 7:56am EDT

re: And (re)counting votes is art

And (re)counting votes is art wrote:
Now under 10000 and 4%. The mail-in is trending heavily Ossoff. He may be able to demand a recount yet.
Karen Handel (Republican) 51.9% 134,595
Jon Ossoff (Democratic) 48.1% 124,893

So he spent $22 million for 125K votes?

8 years ago 06/21/2017 7:57am EDT

re: Mr. Obvious

Mr. Obvious wrote:
Flagpole wrote:
What polls are some of you looking at? The ones I see all have Ossoff winning. Seems pollsters need to tweak things a bit though these days, but I'm not sure anyone can be confident of a Handel win just yet.
Don't weigh in on elections.
Will you never learn?

plus 1

8 years ago 06/21/2017 7:59am EDT

re: EZ PZ

EZ PZ wrote:
The News with Brian Williams wrote:
OK -- you win. Well done.
Except we knew who won by 8:00PM last night.

Sorry I wasn't clear enough for you. The original post was submitted Monday at 6:50 PM. He/She correctly predicted the outcome and percentages.

8 years ago 06/21/2017 7:59am EDT

re: Post-mortem analysis

Post-mortem analysis wrote:
They also blame Ossoff trying to appeal too much to moderates.

And that he was to civil to the loathsome Trump.

â€œI guess youâ€™ve got to be true to yourself, but sometimes Iâ€™d like him and the Democrats to get down and dirtier,

But Republicans countered with a message that should cause great concern for Democrats â€” returning to their effort to tie Democrats to House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.). One senior Republican involved in the overall effort said that the more the race became national in tone, through the media and the way the voters perceived it here, the easier it was to turn Ossoff into a conventional Democrat.
Pelosiâ€™s image appeared in almost every ad run by Handel, the National Republican Congressional Committee and its affiliated super PAC, the Congressional Leadership Fund. It was reminiscent of the 2010 campaign, when she was House speaker, and her advisers estimated that more than $50 million worth of negative ads ran citing her. That year, Democrats lost 63 seats along with the majority.
Seven years later, Pelosi remains a polarizing enough figure that she never appears publicly in a highly contested House race, instead focusing all her energy on raising tens of millions of dollars for the DCCC and its candidates.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/ossoff-chose-civility-and-it-didnt-work-how-do-democrats-beat-trump/2017/06/20/b1faa294-55ba-11e7-b38e-35fd8e0c288f_story.html

8 years ago 06/21/2017 8:14am EDT

re: laughing my Ossoff

I guess Dems can't convert anyone to their thinking, so they have to find (maybe from Venezuela?) others who have been pre-indoctrinated into their thinking, and get them voting rights somehow.

https://twitter.com/JoyAnnReid/status/877364783279988736

8 years ago 06/21/2017 8:16am EDT

re: laughing my Ossoff

The sagacious Rahm Emanuel (2006 impresario) has weighed in too.

Winning hotly contested swing seats, however, requires candidates who closely match their districtsâ€”even if they donâ€™t perfectly align with the national partyâ€™s activist base. In 2006, the Democratic base was energized and angry, but then as now, capturing a majority required winning some tough races in red and purple states across the heartland. As leaders in that 2006 effort, we recruited a football player in North Carolina, a businessman in Florida, an Iraq veteran in Pennsylvania, and a sheriff in Indiana. The Democratic Party won twice as many seats as it needed to gain control.

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/06/riding-the-2018-wave/530952/

8 years ago 06/21/2017 8:21am EDT

re: SAW 777

SAW 777 wrote:
Infowars horseshit.

Bill Clinton is a rapist.

8 years ago 06/21/2017 9:04am EDT

re: laughing my Ossoff

laughing my Ossoff wrote:
So Fagpole predicted another win and went humiliated beyond belief.

I did not predict he would win.

8 years ago 06/21/2017 9:11am EDT

re: Georgia is a Red State!!!!!

It's interesting that anyone actually considers this to have been anything like a fair election, given how many minority voter registration forms were destroyed. Georgia, I wish you joy of your Jim Crow.

8 years ago 06/21/2017 9:50am EDT

re: Runningart2004

This. A lot of this.

8 years ago 06/21/2017 10:07am EDT

re: Hurl

The 6th District in Georgia is very white and wealthy northern suburb of Atlanta. It should be the "shooting fish in a barrel" race for Republicans thanks to gerrymandering. Same for the other special elections to fill vacancies brought about by cabinet appointments. Every president always fills his cabinet with people from very safe congressional seats. Trump did the same.

The fact that Democrats are now becoming competitive in what should be heavily gerrymandered Republican districts should be scaring the pants off of Republicans. Trump's white nationalism means that Republicans will have no chance of turning any district that leans Democratic. That means Republicans will have everything to lose and nothing to gain in the 2018 midterms.

8 years ago 06/21/2017 10:50am EDT

re: Precious Roy

Precious Roy wrote:
The 6th District in Georgia is very white and wealthy northern suburb of Atlanta. It should be the "shooting fish in a barrel" race for Republicans thanks to gerrymandering. Same for the other special elections to fill vacancies brought about by cabinet appointments. Every president always fills his cabinet with people from very safe congressional seats. Trump did the same.
The fact that Democrats are now becoming competitive in what should be heavily gerrymandered Republican districts should be scaring the pants off of Republicans. Trump's white nationalism means that Republicans will have no chance of turning any district that leans Democratic. That means Republicans will have everything to lose and nothing to gain in the 2018 midterms.

Aside from the fact that Trump flipped something like 350 counties that voted for Obama at least once, then I guess you have a... wait- what? LOL.

8 years ago 06/21/2017 11:06am EDT

re: Hockey stick

Hockey stick wrote:
Precious Roy wrote:
The 6th District in Georgia is very white and wealthy northern suburb of Atlanta. It should be the "shooting fish in a barrel" race for Republicans thanks to gerrymandering. Same for the other special elections to fill vacancies brought about by cabinet appointments. Every president always fills his cabinet with people from very safe congressional seats. Trump did the same.
The fact that Democrats are now becoming competitive in what should be heavily gerrymandered Republican districts should be scaring the pants off of Republicans. Trump's white nationalism means that Republicans will have no chance of turning any district that leans Democratic. That means Republicans will have everything to lose and nothing to gain in the 2018 midterms.
Aside from the fact that Trump flipped something like 350 counties that voted for Obama at least once, then I guess you have a... wait- what? LOL.

Yeah but Trump isn't on the ballot in 2018

8 years ago 06/21/2017 11:10am EDT

re: Count Chocula

Numbers of white nationalists are dropping by the day. Trump nailed the demographic to win the presidency, but his BS and the fact that the demographic is shrinking doesn't help the Republican future.

Oh, wait, I forgot. Republicans will win every single election from now on forever, because Dems are Trannies. Yeah, that's it.

8 years ago 06/21/2017 11:49am EDT

re: Different percentile

Different percentile wrote:So it fact, this is really actually a toss-up district.

Yeah, but "on the ground" Atlanta's 6th district has voted heavily Republican to Congress since the 1980s. So, a Democratic loss was likely.

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