Freese is a big threat in both, but she didn't make it to Nationals last yr and her soph year she had a DNF in the 10K. So, not much experience at the Big Dance. Therefore, I'm taking Perleberg in the 5K and Scherer in the 10K... both seniors with Nationals experience.
seriously?2 wrote:
I don't know where you are getting your info, but it's wrong. Hany A. and Ian R.N. both ran faster than 29:59 in 2008
The real simple answer is that its not...
2008 - 1st, 10th and 20th fastest times = 29:59, 30:30, 30:29
2009 - 1st, 10th and 20th fastest times = 29:38, 30:26, 30:43
2010 - 1st, 10th and 20th fastest times = 29:45, 30:29, 30:51 (but the 19th fastest time is 30:42)
[/quote]
Sorry another typo. Should read 29:50 instead of 29:59. The point still stands though, this year is just as fast in the 10k as in the past.
freese was abroad last year...
That still means she wasn't at the NCAA meet now doesn't it? Point being that she doesn't have experience there...
Fields are up on raceberry, and holy shit! Among many things that jump out at me is that it took 9:10 (!!!) to make it in the men's staple cheese.
I'm not sure the steeplechase is wide open. Chris Wirtz from UWEC ran an 8:56 and is seeded to win by nine seconds. If anybody else wins, it'll be an upset.
be proud blugold brother, but show some humility. i think our boy can win (hope he does), but there are other guys in the field who can run sub-9 in the right race. you have to show more respect for the opposition than that. there are some guys who got their times in april who are probably capable of going faster -but haven't been chasing it the last few weeks.
UWEC wrote:
I'm not sure the steeplechase is wide open. Chris Wirtz from UWEC ran an 8:56 and is seeded to win by nine seconds. If anybody else wins, it'll be an upset.
What happened to NCC's Benton? He hasn't run since Drake, near as I can tell.
are there any dark horses in any of the distance races that might take it? or are the favorites merely going to run away?
also, which region will perform the best? obviously, new england is well represented in the middle distances especially, but could the midwest or atlantic show their stuff and suprise people?
other than bofa and borner in the 800, i don't think there are any clear cut favorites.
Completely agree about Kamm. Given the decision not to run the 1500, I'm changing to Berube, Kamm, Marker. The one difference with Markee is that he already had his 5k time whereas Murner was presumably still trying to qualify. Then again, he closed in 62 at Oneonta so maybe he's just been trying to stay sharp for the 10k.
The Flynn comment was just a reference to the negative hype he managed to stir up before and after xc nats. Warranted or not, he seems to have taken up the Abdallah mantle this year.
http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?board=1&id=3347884&thread=3347884
I don't think Borner is a clear cut favorite in the 800. She's never even run it at Nationals before. Don't count the indoor champ, Schudrowitz out of it! Her teammate Graybill won indoor & outdoor last year... wouldn't be surprised if she does it again, plus Borner is doubling up!
Wow, no Ty Griffin in the 1500. This may be a dumb question, but why do the men have less entries in each event than the women? For example, the women have 22 entries in the 100 compared to 16 for men.
Wow, Pavlus' absence certainly throws a wrench into things. In Scherer, you have consistency, experience, and steady improvement. In Freese, you have the relative newcomer with big times and a kick to go with it. Perleberg looks rock-solid with the experience and fast times. Lawton has the blazing 5k but remains unproven in a fast 10k. Reich brings the miler threat but won't be fresh. Rawls is the precocious freshman thrown into the fire. Spelts, Sieve, Surtees, Childs-Walker, O'grady could be wildcards.
I'm sticking with Freese, Lawton, Scherer in the 10k and Reich, Perleberg, Sieve in the 5k.
Interestingly, Freese and Pavlus finished one spot apart at XC nats a year ago...
because more women double. The same number of athletes (250-300ish) get into the national meet on both genders. As more people double/triple, the field sizes get larger, but the total # of people at nationals stays the same.
run4fun247365 wrote:
I don't think Borner is a clear cut favorite in the 800. She's never even run it at Nationals before. Don't count the indoor champ, Schudrowitz out of it! Her teammate Graybill won indoor & outdoor last year... wouldn't be surprised if she does it again, plus Borner is doubling up!
fair enough. 3 secs clear of the field is a lot in the 800 though.
yeah, I agree 3 seconds is a lot, but I just think with Borner never having doubled before anything can definitely happen!
That being said, with the way Borner has run this year, I could very much see her as the 1,500 and 800 champ.
Saw that Allison Chamberlain from Keene State (2nd in the 800 indoors, auto'd in both the 800 & 1,500 outdoors) didn't declare. Must be hurt? Guess it goes to show you really can't take being healthy for granted, ever!
Was looking at how many athletes who are seniors this year have made it to Nationals all 4 years... it is very few and far between. LOTS of athletes there as freshman and sophomores that you really haven't heard of since. Pretty crazy the way it all unfolds.
Distance Predictions:
800
1.David Litsheim Stevens Point
2.Peter Najem Keene State
3.Emmanuel Bofa Whitworth
1500
1.Nick Guarino Fredonia
2.Yermie Cohen MIT
3.Matt Turlip NYU
Steeple
1.Nick Karwoski Dickinson
2.Chris Wirtz Eau Claire
3.Sean Carlson North Central
5000
1.Ricky Flynn Lynchburg
2.Mike Spain North Central
3.Connor Kamm Williams
10,000
1.Kyle Brady North Central
2.Mike Spain North Central
3.Daniel Murner Amherst
what do people think about D3's system for national selection? Having 15 people in multiple men's distance events, does that seem fair and the way to run a national meet?
1111111 wrote:
what do people think about D3's system for national selection? Having 15 people in multiple men's distance events, does that seem fair and the way to run a national meet?
i think the selection process is great, i just wish they would up the total number of athletes to the point where they could at least fill the track in each event. running a 1500 heat with only seven guys seems a bit silly. especially when the top four qualify for the finals regardless of time.