What a mess. Iran is launching missiles at every Gulf nation except for Oman. So far, oil infrastructure has not been targeted. But Houthis have promised to resume Red Sea attacks. No moves yet by Iran on the Straits of Hormuz.
US Naval support base in Bahrain has been hit pretty hard. Bases in Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi and Emirates are under attack. Israel has also been hit. Iran was ready to respond and the US/Israeli first strike focused on taking out regime leadership instead of hitting Iran’s missile systems.
Oil prices are spiking. Would expect to see $80+ by Monday and equities lose 10% or more next week. If oil infrastructure is targeted and the Straits of Hormuz blockaded, Oil will break $100. Trump can order a halt to US oil exports which would freeze US oil prices. But the oil companies would lose billions. So that won’t happen.
This needs to be a very short military campaign or else we will be stuck in another forever war. Iran’s regime falling may not end the conflict as remnants of the regime could keep firing missiles as an internal civil war unfolds. Iran’s regime has prepared for this with 4 deep lines of succession for all major leadership positions.
Trump is going to fracture his base on this if there is a prolonged conflict. A lot of ride or die M#GA are Gulf War vets and their families who support Trump’s America First because they reject the neoconservative wars. They got addicted to Oxy after coming home with lost limbs and PTSD. Then many overdosed on fentanyl when they couldn’t get Oxy. They do not want to see US casualties pile up again over another war on the other side of the globe.
And if the economy tanks as a result of this, Trump could even see a loss of control of congress and his war defunded if this is still going on in November.
