To say no runner in history could defeat Hocker in a championship 5k is completely delusional. Do yourself a favor and study up on Jakob Ingebrigtsen, Mo Farah, Kenenisa Bekele, Bernard Lagat, Hicham El Guerrouj, and Eliud Kipchoge for starters. Apparently you aren’t familiar with any of them.
Why didn’t 12:36 Hocker win in Stockholm when Almgren could only run 12:44? Is he stupid?
First of all, I said "the Hocker we just saw." The entire premise of this conversation is that runners are not always at their best.
None of the runners you listed has ever had a kick like Hocker's. Heck, El Guerrouj closed the 1500 in Athens in 51.91, but he was in the lead at the bell, ran every step in lane one, and it was off a pedestrian pace. Farah ran 50.89 once, which people lost their minds about at the time, but that was in a 14-something race where it was clearly a stunt to see what he could do. Again, lane one the whole way, no traffic, just running one lap as fast as he could.
I think you're getting carried away by the history attached to these names. We've watched them, idolized them, talked about them for decades, so they're larger than life. Hocker was just another decent American until recently, so it sounds absurd to say none of those guys could beat him. But if you actually look at their body of work, there is nothing to indicate that any of them would've had much of a chance in a sub-13 race against a guy who can close in 52 seconds from lane 2.
It's interesting to speculate about training differences between eras. There is so much more emphasis these days on true sprint training (including plyos and weights) for distance runners. Perhaps the great milers of my era could've had better kicks with modern training. Farah (and Salazar) really showed people the benefits of that kind of work, but Farah never had to do it off of the kind of paces that people are running today.
As for Diamond League races, they really don't have anything to do with this discussion. I acknowledged that peak Jakob could probably run away from Hocker with pacers. But at sub-13 pace, the energy cost of leading is over one second per lap, so Jakob can't run away in a championship. (It seems like people never want to admit this.) The question then becomes whether there is a kicking distance that would work for him. Given what Hocker can do in the last lap, even in a sub 13 or sub 3:30 race, I don't think there is any strategy that would give Jakob a win. (Again, against Hocker on this day.)
Peak Jakob's only hope would be if someone else acted as a rabbit and made it a 12:3X race.
I like Hocker just as much as the next guy and agree with you that Jakob would lose to this version of Cole more times than not.
However, I’d still pick Bernard Lagat in a kick over Hocker right now. 51.7 for a 12:59 in a random-ish 5k mid season.
Also, he and El G finished a 1500m in 1:46 with 51.x last lap.
The OP stated, "For me, his 5k win has an asterisk. I can't crown him as the best unless he beats Peak Jakob." Sounds like discrediting to me.
The OP got ratioed for discrediting Hocker, so you’re crying about nothing. If anything, Jakob is the one being disrespected. He’s on the level of Bekele and Farah and people are questioning if he could’ve won this year. You even tried to give Hocker credit for beating him when he’s a shell of himself, which is about as dumb as giving Nader credit for beating Kerr.
Imagine if someone started a thread asking if El G could’ve beaten Nader, and several posters argued in the negative because we never saw him close a 3:34 in 51 or 12.2 or whatever. That’s the level of stupid you guys are approaching.
Get real. Hocker has been disrespected on this board ever since he won in Paris. There've been people saying he got lucky and calling him a one-hit wonder. This thread, along with the other threads accusing of him doping, is a continuation of a year-long campaign to discredit him.
Bekele, Farah, and El Guerrouj all got beat in championship races, so the point you're trying to make isn't as good as you think it is.
Yes, I gave Hocker credit for winning gold because he earned it. So did Nader.
I'm just saying it's disingenuous to call someone a 3:27 guy when they can't come within two seconds of that time because they ran it in the best scenario you can possibly get.
And yes, Jakob has beaten much better 5000 runners than Hocker using that strategy, what has Hocker shown that supposedly makes him a 12:36 guy? Him finishing 4 seconds ahead of Jakob who hasn't been able to train properly until a few weeks before the race?
then it's also disingenuous to call Jakob a 3:26 guy when his non-paced PR is 3:28
Curious_Cat wrote: because no human can close a 5k in 52.6 on outer lane (which would be faster than his 800 PR), if he isn't already in far better shape than the time indicates. 13:05 pace has to be very comfortable for him, so comfortable, he could toy with the field like that.
McRunnin wrote: Those 4 seconds all came on the final lap.
No, it's not disingenuous to call Jakob a 3:26 guy because he didn't get paced for 1400 meters and is actually able to run both 3:27 and 3:28, multiple times.
And if the argument is that Hocker is a 12:36 guy because he ran a 52 last 400 in a sub 13 race? Does that make Robinson, Gressier and Kimeli 12:40 guys because they were only barely slower over the last 400?
Disappointing response, snowflakes. If you're so confident that 2024 Jakob would have won the race in Tokyo the way it was run, you should be able to explain exactly how. Maybe you can sleep on it and then come back to tell us how the race played out in your dreams.
I had to come back and comment on how embarrassing it is that you edited that last sentence in 14 minutes later LOL.
then it's also disingenuous to call Jakob a 3:26 guy when his non-paced PR is 3:28
Curious_Cat wrote: because no human can close a 5k in 52.6 on outer lane (which would be faster than his 800 PR), if he isn't already in far better shape than the time indicates. 13:05 pace has to be very comfortable for him, so comfortable, he could toy with the field like that.
McRunnin wrote: Those 4 seconds all came on the final lap.
No, it's not disingenuous to call Jakob a 3:26 guy because he didn't get paced for 1400 meters and is actually able to run both 3:27 and 3:28, multiple times.
And if the argument is that Hocker is a 12:36 guy because he ran a 52 last 400 in a sub 13 race? Does that make Robinson, Gressier and Kimeli 12:40 guys because they were only barely slower over the last 400?
it's disingenuous to call him a 3:26 guy for the exact same reason - he got paced for 1100 meters.
El g also ran 3:26 multiple times, but no, he wasn't suddenly a 3:25 guy.
Why don't you just check the splits on WA before posting? The second fastest last lap was from Kimeli (54.06 or 54.07), that's a full sec slower than Hocker's, despite running a clean lane the whole time.
Disappointing response, snowflakes. If you're so confident that 2024 Jakob would have won the race in Tokyo the way it was run, you should be able to explain exactly how. Maybe you can sleep on it and then come back to tell us how the race played out in your dreams.
I had to come back and comment on how embarrassing it is that you edited that last sentence in 14 minutes later LOL.
No, it's not disingenuous to call Jakob a 3:26 guy because he didn't get paced for 1400 meters and is actually able to run both 3:27 and 3:28, multiple times.
And if the argument is that Hocker is a 12:36 guy because he ran a 52 last 400 in a sub 13 race? Does that make Robinson, Gressier and Kimeli 12:40 guys because they were only barely slower over the last 400?
it's disingenuous to call him a 3:26 guy for the exact same reason - he got paced for 1100 meters.
El g also ran 3:26 multiple times, but no, he wasn't suddenly a 3:25 guy.
Why don't you just check the splits on WA before posting? The second fastest last lap was from Kimeli (54.06 or 54.07), that's a full sec slower than Hocker's, despite running a clean lane the whole time.
No, because 1100 isn't 1400 and he isn't more than 2 seconds slower when he doesn't get the ideal conditions to set a PB in.
Yes, a full second, something you said barely makes a difference a few posts back. Is a one second slower last 400 the difference between being a 12:36 guy and being a full 20 seconds slower, like Kimelis PB of 12:56?
it's disingenuous to call him a 3:26 guy for the exact same reason - he got paced for 1100 meters.
El g also ran 3:26 multiple times, but no, he wasn't suddenly a 3:25 guy.
Why don't you just check the splits on WA before posting? The second fastest last lap was from Kimeli (54.06 or 54.07), that's a full sec slower than Hocker's, despite running a clean lane the whole time.
No, because 1100 isn't 1400 and he isn't more than 2 seconds slower when he doesn't get the ideal conditions to set a PB in.
Yes, a full second, something you said barely makes a difference a few posts back. Is a one second slower last 400 the difference between being a 12:36 guy and being a full 20 seconds slower, like Kimelis PB of 12:56?
bold: you cannot be serious man....you canNOT be serious! Damn, I really lol-ed literally
Curious_Cat wrote: btw, wouldn't be surprised at all Gressier and Kimeli can drop a low-mid 12:40.
No, because 1100 isn't 1400 and he isn't more than 2 seconds slower when he doesn't get the ideal conditions to set a PB in.
Yes, a full second, something you said barely makes a difference a few posts back. Is a one second slower last 400 the difference between being a 12:36 guy and being a full 20 seconds slower, like Kimelis PB of 12:56?
bold: you cannot be serious man....you canNOT be serious! Damn, I really lol-ed literally
Curious_Cat wrote: btw, wouldn't be surprised at all Gressier and Kimeli can drop a low-mid 12:40.
Do you understand the difference between being drafted in a straight line and being drafted in a bend?
btw, wouldn't be surprised at all Gressier and Kimeli can drop a low-mid 12:40.
You wouldn't be surprised if Kimeli, who set his 5000 PB of 12:56 last year, could drop 15 seconds off his PB at age 31?
Considering how much better he seemed to get near the end of this season he clearly is a different runner. Low 12:40s is optimistic but something like a 12:48? Completely reasonable.
We're at the point now where you can't be considered a legit medal contender at a global championship 5000 without at least sub 12:50 TT ability and a good kick. It's been that way for the past 4 years.
In my mind Jakob in 7:17 shape was capable of 12:32-12:33, Hocker is probably a 12:45-6 guy right now. If you look at the kind of shape El G and Kipchoge were, and the close they produced in 2003 it lines up.
This post was edited 9 minutes after it was posted.
Disappointing response, snowflakes. If you're so confident that 2024 Jakob would have won the race in Tokyo the way it was run, you should be able to explain exactly how. Maybe you can sleep on it and then come back to tell us how the race played out in your dreams.
I had to come back and comment on how embarrassing it is that you edited that last sentence in 14 minutes later LOL.
There's nothing embarrassing about editing a post whether it's 14 seconds later or 14 minutes later. I regularly edit my posts if I notice a mistake or if I want to add or rephrase something. That's why we have the function.
The only thing that's embarrassing is you not being able to support your claim that Peak Jakob would have won by explaining in detail how he would have defeated Hocker in Tokyo. You spent all that time citing incomparable races from the past, but you couldn't articulate exactly how Jakob would have won the Tokyo race in the way that it was run. I guess you're not so confident after all.
Gotta agree with this. Even if Jakob has 10s over Cole in a pure TT 5000 it's still no guarantee he wins in a championship scenario if he doesn't execute properly.
And this is coming from someone who thought he would be completely invincible in the 5000 for the foreseeable future. If Cole did what he did in a 13:20 race today it probably wouldn't have changed the narrative, but this is at the same level of what he did in Paris.
I should clarify my comment by saying that I don't believe Hocker is favored against a peak Jakob.
I simply meant that he's reached a level where Jakob actually has to treat him as a potential serious threat rather than messing around doing whatever he wants until the last lap and still winning by 20 meters against the rest of the field.
The other guy who said 7-3 odds Jakob to Hocker sounds about right. If he gets boxed in badly like in Paris and isn't able to respond to a move immediately, or if he's sick like he was in Budapest, he can certainly lose. IMO Hocker is clearly a better 1500-5k runner than Katir was in 2023.
This post was edited 4 minutes after it was posted.
You wouldn't be surprised if Kimeli, who set his 5000 PB of 12:56 last year, could drop 15 seconds off his PB at age 31?
Considering how much better he seemed to get near the end of this season he clearly is a different runner. Low 12:40s is optimistic but something like a 12:48? Completely reasonable.
We're at the point now where you can't be considered a legit medal contender at a global championship 5000 without at least sub 12:50 TT ability and a good kick. It's been that way for the past 4 years.
In my mind Jakob in 7:17 shape was capable of 12:32-12:33, Hocker is probably a 12:45-6 guy right now. If you look at the kind of shape El G and Kipchoge were, and the close they produced in 2003 it lines up.
Well I simply don't believe that there are so many people out there who supposedly have all this sub 12:50 speed without ever running it in a race. If they did they'd run it.
And I also don't think you have to have that kind of speed to be a medal threat, because there are tons of guys out there who are time trialers and don't have the racing skills required for global medals.
The four fastest men of all time don't have a global gold medal between them, guys like Mills, Kuma, Mehary and Kipkorir are in the top 15 all time and are barely sniffing any medals in global finals.
Considering how much better he seemed to get near the end of this season he clearly is a different runner. Low 12:40s is optimistic but something like a 12:48? Completely reasonable.
We're at the point now where you can't be considered a legit medal contender at a global championship 5000 without at least sub 12:50 TT ability and a good kick. It's been that way for the past 4 years.
In my mind Jakob in 7:17 shape was capable of 12:32-12:33, Hocker is probably a 12:45-6 guy right now. If you look at the kind of shape El G and Kipchoge were, and the close they produced in 2003 it lines up.
Well I simply don't believe that there are so many people out there who supposedly have all this sub 12:50 speed without ever running it in a race. If they did they'd run it.
And I also don't think you have to have that kind of speed to be a medal threat, because there are tons of guys out there who are time trialers and don't have the racing skills required for global medals.
The four fastest men of all time don't have a global gold medal between them, guys like Mills, Kuma, Mehary and Kipkorir are in the top 15 all time and are barely sniffing any medals in global finals.
Do you also believe that Mo Farah was maxed out at 12:53 because that was his PB? I never liked the guy but the idea that people are only as good as their PBs is simply ridiculous. I mean the same logic applies to Jakob and his 12:48.
People were shocked that Hocker went from being "only a 3:30.mid guy" to running 3:27 in Paris but if you look at how he closed at the US trials he was already showing signs of being in 3:28 shape (Nick Willis thought so too).
This post was edited 12 minutes after it was posted.
Considering it's a 5k race, we should look at more than just how they closed. In the two championship races that Jakob closed in 1:50, his 3k splits were 8:14 and 8:18. Hocker's 3k split this weekend was 7:52. Would 2024 Jakob have had the same close he had in Paris if he came through 3k about 26 seconds faster?
Let´s compare 2 races where Hocker and Jakob ran on more equal terms:
Hocker´s Millrose PB 3000m and Jakob´s Silesia WR 3000m.
Hocker got drafting for about for 2400m and Jakob for about 1950m so slight advantage to Hocker.
Hocker ran the first 2000m in 4:58.27; Jakob ran in 4:55.21 so about 3 sec faster.
So if Hocker should be the faster runner he should be significantly faster on the last 1000m but as you possibly already know?...... Hocker ran 2:24.91 whereas Jakob ran 2:22.34.
Jakob in peak shape can - on equal terms - run a faster last 1000m and possibly also a faster last 1600m than anyone in history, of course including Hocker.
And that is what "snowflakes" in vain has tried to point out in several posts on this thread.
Hey man, we get your point that Jakob’s 3K WR is way better than Cole’s Melrose performance. But you’re missing the forest for the trees if you’re saying that Melrose was Cole’s peak, just like we wouldn’t say that Jakob’s excellent indoor performances are his peak.
//
I think Jakob still has the advantage, but damn that would be a fun race to watch. Like Bekele in the 2008 Olympics, going to the front and trying to grind down Lagat. Lagat won in 2007, Bekele won 2008 and 2009. I think it’s a similar split.
Also, last year we were asking if Jakob is basically unbeatable at 5000m. Now we’re have a legitimate challenger. How crazy is sport?
Gotta agree with this. Even if Jakob has 10s over Cole in a pure TT 5000 it's still no guarantee he wins in a championship scenario if he doesn't execute properly.
And this is coming from someone who thought he would be completely invincible in the 5000 for the foreseeable future. If Cole did what he did in a 13:20 race today it probably wouldn't have changed the narrative, but this is at the same level of what he did in Paris.
I should clarify my comment by saying that I don't believe Hocker is favored against a peak Jakob.
I simply meant that he's reached a level where Jakob actually has to treat him as a potential serious threat rather than messing around doing whatever he wants until the last lap and still winning by 20 meters against the rest of the field.
The other guy who said 7-3 odds Jakob to Hocker sounds about right. If he gets boxed in badly like in Paris and isn't able to respond to a move immediately, or if he's sick like he was in Budapest, he can certainly lose. IMO Hocker is clearly a better 1500-5k runner than Katir was in 2023.
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