The differences between the top guys has become much narrower. Kessler’s quote was interesting - maybe he was slightly overcooked having done too much. We’ve literally watch him grow up as a pro and figure out how to race a little more each season. On this day it just wasn’t quite enough. From the other thread - is there a route for him and Niuguse to get in on points if he races rest of Diamond League? How amazing would it be to have 5 top US at Worlds?
From what I saw Kessler has not looked like himself since indoors. He still has long career ahead and races don't always go as expected. He placed himself in good position on the rail the entire way but tied up at end. Same with Nuguse who is perennial front runner and seemed to have off day though differences are now so small. He also paid price for leading. Hocker likely benefits most from bigger guys ahead of him moving air entire way.
I was impressed by races Gary Martin put together and look forward to seeing him in the future. Ethan Strand was stellar and I underestimated his current ceiling. Koech has definitely found the right event. Great racing and glad no falls. On this day the top three were just a little better when it mattered most.
Only saw your comment because it was replied to because to be honest you like to pick fights but don't really have the knowledge to be doing so. But I'll make an exception this one time.
First of all, Strand has nothing to do with it. This is about comparing Nuguse's workload across his pro seasons and not him to anyone else. Last time I checked, Strand has been a pro for all of 2 months? Nuguse has been a pro for 3 years and those 3 years has undoubtedly contained a lot more training and training at a high intensity which has yielded the results they have (multiple sub 3.30's, a 3.43 mile, a 3.27 1500m, DL wins, world indoor records).
Secondly lets look at the 14 races of Strand this outdoor season because we know what Nuguses were - all extremely high quality races against world and Olympic champions, every single race. Every GST race involved the top 3 from Tokyo, throw in the mix the 800m silver medalist and reigning World Champ in Marco Arop, plus Wanyonyi in Kingston and then the world class field as always at Prefontaine. Not one race where he was by far the dominant guy and could just maybe coast along for 2/3 of a race, work on his final lap finish etc - every race at maximum focus and effort (and include his indoors with that too). When I look at Strand I see 13/14 races in the college ranks and not all of them NCAA final level. We really comparing racing Olympic and World champions in pro races to the ACC outdoors or the Duke Twilight? A number of his races are even NCAA prelim level races.
So how do I "explain" Strand? 1) Has been a pro about 36 months less than Yared 2) Has had nowhere near the same level of competition day in day out as Yared 3) Isn't Yared Nuguse.
Try and use a little more thought and diligence. You can respond but I won't be seeing it.
Strand actually has a lot to do with it because he’s one of the runners who got a world championship team spot over Nuguse today. Strand (and J. Koech) leveling up this year is a much more relevant factor for Nuguse finishing 5th today than Nuguse running a series of 3:34-3:35 races and 800m races in the spring.
The biggest reasons for Nuguse finishing 5th today are:
The Big 3 of USA 1500m running has become a Big 5. Last year, 3:31.53 was good enough for 3rd at the U.S. championships. Nuguse ran faster than that today and got 5th.
Nuguse ran significantly harder in his semifinal this year than he did in either of his semis at the U.S. championships the past two years.
Nuguse ran a bit too hard his first 1200m in the final today, particularly in light of how hard he ran his semi. He split 56.23-58.36-55.95 today compared to 56.32-58.99-56.03 last year. Every lap was faster this year, with significantly less of a “break” on the second lap.
Nuguse’s last GST race was June 1st. He had just one race between then and the start of these championships, a span of nearly two months. I’m not buying the notion that he came into these championships tired from racing.
Meanwhile, a collegian who completed three consecutive racing seasons while juggling training with an academic course load shined today.
Re: your comment about me being someone who “likes to pick fights,” I think it’s more accurate to say you’re someone who unfairly attacks athletes on here, and I’m someone who defends athletes from unfair attacks. One recent example: you created a thread on the “curious case of Quincy Hall” in which you cast aspersions on Hall’s 400m progression, and I factually explained that he was primarily a hurdler until 2023 and had only run the 400m once outdoors from 2020-2022.
It sounds like you’ve decided to block me on here, which is a rather weak way to respond to someone who has differing opinions than you. Perhaps if you were more open to different perspectives, you might realize you’re not the know-it-all you think you are.
You’ve done essentially the same thing as him. You’re both right with different reasons. This namecalling is tiresome
While they are the real deal I think Josh Kerr is about to win gold #3 with no yared or Jakob to worry about
Why don´t you think that Kerr doesn´t need to worry about Jakob?
And..........don´t you think Kerr needs to worry about
Habz
P Koech
Mills
Nillesen
Nader
Laros
Myers
T Cheruiyot
R Cheruiyot
J Koech
Strand
Hocker
And................ I argued in another thread that Kerr is around 2 sec from his level in the Bowerman Mile last year. His mile time last year 3:45.34 equals on paper to 3:28.60 in the 1500m but considering that he frontran the last 600m his time converts to 3:27 mid in the 1500m (this time he could have achieved in the Bowerman Mile 2024 if he had been able to draft all the way as he did in the recent DL London 1500m AND in the OG final in Paris last year).
So I don´t see Kerr as one of the foremost favorites in Tokyo.
Jakob:
Kerr has Jakob's number right now injury or no injury and Jakob is coimng off of an injury. Not saying h won't be a factor but I don't belive in him to win the whole thing.
Cole hasn't shown anything this year to concern Josh who beats him a large majority of the time. Sure he has his kick and he has now run 3:30 but Cole isn't a dominant type of runner hes just killer. Ironically Yared is very dominant but probably no where near as killer.
The field will always be an x-factor but from the last group of major players Josh who has a bye doesn't have much to worry about. Our US champ was working out 5 days a week lol. That is insanity. Just don't gt injured and I say he at LEAST gets a medal and like when he was in the NCAA he seems to always get a medal.
Lots of people have been saying it was a dumb idea for Yared to lead from the front and there's no way that was going to work.
It seems like we're applying some hindsight bias here, especially since this exact tactic actually worked at the Trials last year. There are differences around the margins - being a second quicker last year, worse conditions today, but overall it was the same strategy, and had worked in the past.
Biggest difference today is just that the top of the field was better/deeper
Yep, I don't think Nuguse had bad tactics at all. I think what he did would've been good enough to win (or get top 3) at USAs most of the time. I think he just faced great competition AND he may not have have had his A game yesterday. It happens.
Kessler looked like he would have been happy to lead. Nuguse is good, but he should know he’s not good enough to break Hocker, Kessler and strand (especially since Jakob failed to break Hocker last year). I think he needs a coaching change
I'm guessing the argument is that Strand doesn't train at the same level of intensity or volume as Yared. But it's a great counterpoint. It doesn't feel like racing volume to me. Maybe Pre and the way he ran it was a little ambitious, but he's had time to bounce back..
It feels like leading from the front (challenging) and then there's a huge discrepancy between Strand and Koech's prelims and Yared's. Kinda absurd in retrospect.
Yeah, in addition to the ridiculous prelim, it wasn’t a good day to try to go gun to tape. Corrigan and Wayment both got crushed trying to do essentially the same thing, even if the comparison isn’t perfect because of how much better Yared is than those two right now. But the 1500 field is also much stronger than either steeple. Yared probably figured running like that was the best way to ensure top 3, regardless of whether he held Cole and maybe Hobbs off, but he (reasonably, imo) didn’t account for Strand and Koech being able to light him up like that in a 3:30 race. Idk how much the conditions played into it, but a hot, windy day takes more out of the leader—final nail in his coffin, at least.
Based on pre-race knowledge, I really don't think that Yared's strategy was all that bad. Winning is nice, but remember that the real goal here is to just secure top 3. While we know in the past few years that this strategy is fairly unlikely to win, he probably thought that he could pretty easily secure top 3 by front running to take out most of the field. He obviously just didn't have it today and probably would not have had it with any other race strategy, but it really wasn't a bad tactic to try and secure top 3.
12.49, 12.69, 12.54. Those are the last 100 splits of the top 3. It’s a gear that Kessler/Nuguse have never unlocked as far as I know. The race despite being 3;30 wasn’t fast enough to break the top 3 and their kicks’ top-end speed are just overwhelming for even guys as fast in a time trial as Yared/Hobbs.
Kessler doesn't have those gears? The Kessler who made the Olympic 800m team?
Case in point Kiprop had a 1:43 PR, but he's definitely not known for his kick.
Not a 1500m, but Komen had much better 1500/3k PBs than Geb, but Geb used to outkick him routinely.
Shorter distances PBs rarely have anything to do with kick at the end of a race.
Based on pre-race knowledge, I really don't think that Yared's strategy was all that bad. Winning is nice, but remember that the real goal here is to just secure top 3. While we know in the past few years that this strategy is fairly unlikely to win, he probably thought that he could pretty easily secure top 3 by front running to take out most of the field. He obviously just didn't have it today and probably would not have had it with any other race strategy, but it really wasn't a bad tactic to try and secure top 3.
yeah, the strategy was sound, it's just that the field has improved way too fast.
Well I hope he gets back over to Europe and just has some fun being a pro runner, a dream for so many. At the end of the day, Kessler needs to realize he has acheived a huge feat, making an Olympic team in two events and finishing fifth in the Olympics. No matter what else happens with his career it has been a success and he will forever be an Olympian. From here on out don't put so much pressure on yourself. Yes, somedays he could finish top 3 in the world, many times he could be top 3 in the U.S. and sometimes it will be a dissapointment. He needs to just focus on training to be the best he can be and just have fun on race day playing a kids game and living the dream.
Didn't he run away from Hocker and Kessler with the same approach on July 5, 2025?
No. Go re watch. He followed rabbits who followed wave lights. Had neither of those today, plus much more pressure.
Totally different scenario.
Watch as many times as you like, Nuguse absolutely ran away from Hocker and Kessler in that race. Only Habz stuck with him and Laros ran a storming last 100m and caught the fading Nuguse
If you asked every single person in the world who had enough knowledge to predicr this USA 1500m team six months ago i believe zero would have guessed correctly. Maybe one or two would have got 2 out of 3 but that’s generous.
Reminder that Kessler is 6 months younger than Strand. Ran a great race and lost, but he had a WC indoor medal, a 5th at the Olympics, a 3:46 mile and a sub 3:30 1500 and he is 22.
Based on pre-race knowledge, I really don't think that Yared's strategy was all that bad. Winning is nice, but remember that the real goal here is to just secure top 3. While we know in the past few years that this strategy is fairly unlikely to win, he probably thought that he could pretty easily secure top 3 by front running to take out most of the field. He obviously just didn't have it today and probably would not have had it with any other race strategy, but it really wasn't a bad tactic to try and secure top 3.
Disagree. The strategy was clearly not effective and it almost never is. The data suggests that you have to be 5% stronger to win from the front. The gap has closed and he clearly is not 5% stronger. Everyone knew that before the race. Throw in the wind and the heat and it was a very predictable recipe for failure. Occasionally, coaches revolutionize a sport by thinking a little differently. Guardiola did this in football (soccer) by conceptualizing the passing game differently. The coaching in distance, from a tactical race perspective, seems very underdeveloped. Having Nuguse front run was a coaching error. If he had had a specific, thoughtful approach where he is running splits that were tailored to his strengths there was a very high likelihood that he would have qualified. As I posted earlier, why are the options: 1. run from the front, and 2. run in the pack and sit and kick. This is where the sport is from a tactical perspective? I am no coaching guru but there has to be a third option that can be practiced, visualized and implemented for these precise scenarios that continue to bedevil the aerobically strong but not super elite kickers.
No. Go re watch. He followed rabbits who followed wave lights. Had neither of those today, plus much more pressure.
Totally different scenario.
Watch as many times as you like, Nuguse absolutely ran away from Hocker and Kessler in that race. Only Habz stuck with him and Laros ran a storming last 100m and caught the fading Nuguse
Sure did. But that’s not what I was responding to.
No. Go re watch. He followed rabbits who followed wave lights. Had neither of those today, plus much more pressure.
Totally different scenario.
Watch as many times as you like, Nuguse absolutely ran away from Hocker and Kessler in that race. Only Habz stuck with him and Laros ran a storming last 100m and caught the fading Nuguse
Disagree. The strategy was clearly not effective and it almost never is. The data suggests that you have to be 5% stronger to win from the front. The gap has closed and he clearly is not 5% stronger. Everyone knew that before the race. Throw in the wind and the heat and it was a very predictable recipe for failure. Occasionally, coaches revolutionize a sport by thinking a little differently. Guardiola did this in football (soccer) by conceptualizing the passing game differently. The coaching in distance, from a tactical race perspective, seems very underdeveloped. Having Nuguse front run was a coaching error. If he had had a specific, thoughtful approach where he is running splits that were tailored to his strengths there was a very high likelihood that he would have qualified. As I posted earlier, why are the options: 1. run from the front, and 2. run in the pack and sit and kick. This is where the sport is from a tactical perspective? I am no coaching guru but there has to be a third option that can be practiced, visualized and implemented for these precise scenarios that continue to bedevil the aerobically strong but not super elite kickers.
I’ve never heard the 5% thing before, can you cite sources?
Also, he mirrored last year’s OT run, which worked, and also likely felt he was much stronger than everyone via feedback from Pre. So not sure I’m buying the “everyone knew that before the race” part,