Speed ratings
tullyrunners.com/XC2024/Ratings_Sept14.htm#Tiger
Rocky boys at 180, 173, 172, 167, 164, 162.
Mountain View at 164, 163, 158, 157, 145.
Timberline girls at 111, 109, 104, 96, 89.
Rocky girls that ran in the seeded race at 108, 102, 100, 99, 96.
Playing around with speed ratings...
Using season's best (and Rocky's Tiger/Grizz results since it's been rated before in the past), and then guessing at Willow Lane by holding scores equal to Jackson Porter's Jimmy Driscoll, a 6 team meet between Rocky, CDA, Boise, Eagle, Mountain View, and Timberline would look like this:
Rocky- 35
CDA- 48
Boise- 84
Eagle- 104
Mountain View- 109
Timberline- 117
Obviously a huge guess bc Boise doesn't actually have speed ratings yet, but I think probably pretty close to the way it would play out. After Woodbridge and Vallivue, every program should have speed ratings on record and every team but Boise will have at least a couple. Whatever teams fill in the additional spots to state will have a big impact on this. Stadtlander and Meridian would narrow the spread between Rocky and CDA by 3 points, for example.
I'll update again after next week.
Predictions for this week between Woodbridge and Vallivue Scramble?
I'm guessing Max CS is top 10, Zach CS is around 30th, and CDA finishes around 7th-8th.
CDA girls are in the gold race and I think they win it or are in contention to.
Rietze isn't racing for them as he isn't on the entries.
Eagle girls ran much better at Woodbridge last year, so I bet they get around 7th-10th in the rated race this year.
Eagle boys finish middle of the pack in the rated race.
Rocky, Boise, Mountain View, Timberline in that order at the Vallivue Scramble for the boys.
Boise, Timberline, Rocky, Capital, Mountain View in that order for the girls.
Stadtlander, Sheesley, Lucas in that order.
Taylor, Orme, Sullivan in that order.
dual meet wrote:
Predictions for this week between Woodbridge and Vallivue Scramble?
I'm guessing Max CS is top 10, Zach CS is around 30th, and CDA finishes around 7th-8th.
CDA girls are in the gold race and I think they win it or are in contention to.
Rietze isn't racing for them as he isn't on the entries.Eagle girls ran much better at Woodbridge last year, so I bet they get around 7th-10th in the rated race this year.
Eagle boys finish middle of the pack in the rated race.Rocky, Boise, Mountain View, Timberline in that order at the Vallivue Scramble for the boys.
Boise, Timberline, Rocky, Capital, Mountain View in that order for the girls.
Stadtlander, Sheesley, Lucas in that order.
Taylor, Orme, Sullivan in that order.
I'll guess that the Cervi-Skinners finish pretty close together, but around 20th.
CDA boys for 5th. I don't know enough about the CDA girls, but I have a hard time seeing them winning the gold race since they aren't really a factor at the Idaho level.
No guesses for Eagle.
Vallivue scramble boys: Rocky, Boise, Timberline, Mountain View.
Sheesley wins it, Lucas then Stadtlander.
Girls goes: Timberline, Rocky, Boise, Mountain View, Capitol.
Taylor, Orme, Sullivan is a good guess on top 3.
Rocky Mountain wins. Mountain View and Boise not far behind.
Cody Lucas 15:13
https://live.snakerivertiming.com/meets/40411/events/xc/1504268
Boise missing one of their top 5 as well. Timberline’s #2 had a rough day.
Until this year, Tuft was better than everyone who is still on Rocky except for Lucas
Rockstars wrote:
Until this year, Tuft was better than everyone who is still on Rocky except for Lucas
I think Tuft still is. Everyone else on Rocky ran within 10-15 seconds of their Jerome time, Hyrum Tuft was over 45 seconds off. Looks like a majorly bad day for him.
Cody Lucas vs Maximus Cervi Skinner will be interesting, do they meet anywhere aside from state and NXR?
Also the future continues to look bright for Rocky - Freshman Sophomore class PR's so far are already:
16:59/16:59/17:22/17:31/17:34/17:48/17:49/17:51
And this is despite the fact that the Rocky boys tend to have their biggest progression their Junior and Senior years.
Based off of the first 5 strava's I found, the Vallivue Scramble was a bit long.
3.17, 3.19, 3.21, 3.17, 3.2
Take it how you want, but I think that's worth 10-15 seconds depending on the runner.
We already knew that Sheesley, Stadtlander, and Lucas were going to be big dogs in the region, but I'm really liking the possibility of 4-5 Idaho boys in the top 12 come NXR.
A strong, albeit unsurprising performance by Rocky, perhaps a touch underwhelming in the team score, but the times are fantastic considering the length of the course.
Boise had a strong lineup, and did solid.
Mountain View really came to play. I think it's been mentioned earlier on this thread, but a good showing from Mountain View at NXR could mean 5-8th at NXR which would be huge.
Using the 3.17 distance, the extra 0.05 is worth 15 seconds at 5 flat pace.
Assuming a 15 second discrepancy, the actual 5k results for the boys would look something like (times under 17:30 for the top 5 teams):
Rocky - 14:58, 15:40, 15:41, 15:44, 16:08, 16:12, 16:28, 16:29, 16:44, 16:44, 17:07, 17:17, 17:17, 17:20
Boise - 15:01, 15:38, 16:03, 16:08, 16:27, 16:37, 16:44, 17:16, 17:26
Mountain View - 15:29, 15:35, 16:00, 16:03, 16:18, 17:10, 17:18, 17:19, 17:25
Timberline - 15:41, 16:21, 16:30, 16:39, 16:39, 16:41, 17:00, 17:09
Meridian - 15:11, 16:55, 16:57, 16:59, 17:08, 17:14, 17:14, 17:29
Coeur D'Alene girls take 2nd in the Gold Varsity. It's the 4th "best" race which isn't bad for the squad.
There are about 100 teams that got into the more competitive races, but I bet they are better than half the teams in the blue, a quarter of the teams in the rated, and maybe 1-2 teams in the sweeps.
If it was all one big race they would probably be somewhere between 50th and 75th
Cervi Skinners with the race of their life!
Max in 3rd!!!! 13:37
Zack in 11th, 13:58!!!
Owen Powell headed to Wisconsin next year.
Data Nerd wrote:
Cervi Skinners with the race of their life!
Max in 3rd!!!! 13:37
Zack in 11th, 13:58!!!
Freshman Morgenstern with a race of his life too. 4th on the team, beating Heule.
Eagle girls 7th in rated. Results all over the place. 18:08 average.
Boys 23rd. Sophomore John Culpepper goes 15:00. Their #2 from their opener still missing. 15:29 average.
WOODBRIDGE PREVIOUS COURSE RECORD - 13:38 Leo Young
(Nico ran 13:39 in 2019)
1.Powell, Owen 12 Mercer Island 13:30.3 (Wisconsin Badgers)
2 Tostenson, Josiah 12 Crater 13:30.5 (UW Huskies)
3 Cervi-Skinner, Maximus 12 Coeur D'Alene 13:37.0.
NO CALIFORNIA TEAM PLACES IN TOP 7
NW is dominant. Crater is the team to beat but CDA had Rowan Henry hurt, Reitze out & Heule running average.
NXR will be a barn burner
Best speed rating for CDA/Rocky athletes. Both teams have only had two meets speed trated, Woodbridge and Farragut for CDA, Jerome and Tiger Grizz for Rocky.
CDA
193, 185, 183, 163, 163, 156, 155
Rocky
180, 176, 173, 169, 164, 162, 155
Hopefully Vallivue gets speed rated. Mt View will have 2, Rocky 3 with one pretty uncertain, Boise will have one and Timberline will have 2.