"These Speed Ratings are being posted as an example of what I consider as MOSTLY WORTHLESS SPEED RATINGS. The race times are SLOW ... More importantly, the "rate of slow-ness" increases at various points in the finish positions which skews the speed ratings to yield lower than normal values. This can occur on very difficult courses ... SO I IGNORE MOSTOF THE SPEED RATINGS. The speed ratings for the top finishers MAY be in the right "ballpark" because that's how I fitted them ... I fitted the ratings base on a standard race profile for this type of meet in the early season plus individual runner speed ratings from last year."
If they are healthy and run a full squad, I'm calling Centennial wins it, Timberline 2nd, Rocky 3rd (no Heemeyer? If Heemeyer runs, I think they take 2nd to a healthy Centennial squad), Eagle 4th, BK 5th. I don't think MV runs a varsity squad as they have Soda Springs this week. If Centennial races the same squad as last week and Heemeyer is out, I'm calling Timberline, Rocky, Eagle, Centennial, BK.
For girls, Timberline wins, Rocky 2nd, Eagle 3rd, Owyhee 4th, Capital 5th. The only thing that changes the order IMO is if Eagle has fit girls or not. They ran 5 runners at Bogus and it looks like at least 2 of them are not varsity. If Eagle doesn't have girls in shape, they are probably 4th or 5th. I also wouldn't be shocked to see Rocky win the girls. Caldwell is a great course for the girls they have and I think Rocky will race smarter than they did last week.
I love Centennial, but no way their boys take it. They had 5 guys break 18 at a course that's known to be quite quick. Caldwell is a similar speed course, and so I expect each of their athletes to run 20ish seconds faster than last week on average.
Boys:
Rocky - 20ish (with Heemeyer. 40 pts without Heemeyer)
I love Centennial, but no way their boys take it. They had 5 guys break 18 at a course that's known to be quite quick. Caldwell is a similar speed course, and so I expect each of their athletes to run 20ish seconds faster than last week on average.
Boys:
Rocky - 20ish (with Heemeyer. 40 pts without Heemeyer)
Centennial was missing 4 of their top 5 returners from track at Jimmy Driscoll.
Rocky isn’t averaging 8 points per scorer at this meet without Heemeyer. Blaser, Ringert, Stockett, Stadtlander alone make that not realistic. Add in Ihmels and Antonnen and it’s basically impossible. Absolutely no way they score 20 with those guys there and Heemeyer. Jimmy Driscoll also isn’t that fast. Look at the speed rating for Blaser running 16:21. Caldwell is way faster.
I love Centennial, but no way their boys take it. They had 5 guys break 18 at a course that's known to be quite quick. Caldwell is a similar speed course, and so I expect each of their athletes to run 20ish seconds faster than last week on average.
Boys:
Rocky - 20ish (with Heemeyer. 40 pts without Heemeyer)
Centennial was missing 4 of their top 5 returners from track at Jimmy Driscoll.
Rocky isn’t averaging 8 points per scorer at this meet without Heemeyer. Blaser, Ringert, Stockett, Stadtlander alone make that not realistic. Add in Ihmels and Antonnen and it’s basically impossible. Absolutely no way they score 20 with those guys there and Heemeyer. Jimmy Driscoll also isn’t that fast. Look at the speed rating for Blaser running 16:21. Caldwell is way faster.
Also way too big a meet for that low of scores. Someone scores 40-55. Someone scores 60-80. Everyone else over 100. By 6th you are pushing 200.
Centennial was missing 4 of their top 5 returners from track at Jimmy Driscoll.
Rocky isn’t averaging 8 points per scorer at this meet without Heemeyer. Blaser, Ringert, Stockett, Stadtlander alone make that not realistic. Add in Ihmels and Antonnen and it’s basically impossible. Absolutely no way they score 20 with those guys there and Heemeyer. Jimmy Driscoll also isn’t that fast. Look at the speed rating for Blaser running 16:21. Caldwell is way faster.
Also way too big a meet for that low of scores. Someone scores 40-55. Someone scores 60-80. Everyone else over 100. By 6th you are pushing 200.
It's some real smooth brained math there.
With Heemeyer, Rocky averages 4 points per scorer, meaning they have to go 1, 2, and at worst 5, 6, 7. Without Heemeyer, they have to score 8 points per scorer.
Centennial has to score 8-10 points per scorer.
Timberline has to score 12-14 points per scorer
BK has to score 12-14 points per scorer
MV has to score 15-17 points per scorer
Eagle has to score 20 points per scorer.
To sum it up, 30 runners have to average in the top 20, and 20 runners have to average 12 in the top 12.
Like above, the presence of just a few of the top guys puts Rocky at best scoring 3 points with Lucas and Heemeyer, and going 8, 9, 10 to score 30. Rocky couldn't even do that in a much smaller field last week. If Rocky were to do that, at best Centennial or Timberline could score 3 points with Blaser or Ihmels, and then would have to go 11, 12, 13, 14. That's 53 points. If Timberline and Centennial were to trade spots, they would score 3, 12, 14, 16, 18 and 4, 11, 13, 15, 17. That's 60 to 63 for those 2. There is no way that any other team could score under 85 points in that scenario. There are 465 points in the top 30 spots. That would be all 6 of those teams placing every runner in the top 30. OP's math adds up to 355 to 415 total points.
At least the girls are a little more reasonable. There are 325 points in the top 25 spots. OP has 315 to 325 points. Still a ridiculous ask that those 5 schools will take every spot.
Also worth noting that had Rocky ran Heemeyer, Sainsbury, and Hill, they would have scored about 30 points last year. That's with a much better team than this team.
Gimme Nampa Christian and Victory Charter with a tie for the win at 101 points…..monster upsets over Rocky, Centennial, and Timberline (all 3 of these schools score between 110-140)
Girls side, Timberline scores 25 points and puts the entire state on notice. No other team under 75 points.
- No Heemeyer - Centennial isn't racing their varsity boys - MV isn't racing their varsity
Still a good matchup on the boys side between Lucas, Ringert, Stockett, Stadtlander. Does Timberline's big summer of training pay off and they take down a weakened Rocky?
On the girls, Timberline and Rocky will be squaring off. Paisley Taylor for Meridian is making her season debut, Rocky Mountain looks to be racing a complete team, Faith Johnson of Owyhee is racing, and Ihmels is racing. I think there's going to be carnage off the front pack and the chase pack in the girls race and the third place and fourth place teams are closer than people will think. If the race goes out conservatively, Timberline and Rocky should be comfortably ahead of the other teams.
Head to head with full lineups, I think CDA still beats Rocky, but it would be closer than expected.
Closer than expected by whom? It is playing out so far exactly as expected. Rocky has a big team with an apparently solid culture so you are seeing solid improvement. But CDA still has what looks like a probable slight edge, as expected unless the Rocky improvements at 3-4 match CDA’s 3 and 4.
Do we see CDA v any Boise area schools before State?
