There is 1% of chance they run 3:27.
3:28 high or 3:29 low would be more plausible.
There is 1% of chance they run 3:27.
3:28 high or 3:29 low would be more plausible.
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THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:
bike moit wrote:
You're talking about threading a needle here. Also,Nerves? The guy who's never been in a big race is going to manage his nerves and all the proven contenders are going to be nervous and slow the pace way down, makes sense?
Yes, everyone agrees winning a medal is going to be tough with two 3:28 guys who have the tools to thrive.
Nerves can affect anyone. See Grant Holloway. It's not even that Cole isn't nervous it's just if Tim/Jakob don't do what's expected, does Stewart definitely blast it or is there a lap that lags as everyone finds their bearings. There's a bunch of variables, and a slower than we expect final can transpire as much as Jakob, Tim and McSweyn expect a fast one.
The problem for those hoping for a slow race is that you have two front runners (Tim and McSweyn) plus someone who prefer a high tempo (Jakob). What are the odds all three fail to race in the way that they have raced EVERY single race they have ever run as professionals? This is still going to be a tactical race, but it will be fast and tactical. But honestly, if Hocker does go 3:28/29 and wins a medal, I don't want to hear another word about Katir's progression on these boards, because going from 3:35 to 3:28/29 in six months is suspicious as hell
THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:
scrags wrote:
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/athletics-betting-3988current odds on the betfair (uk) exchange, for those interested.
Why is Kerr 3:1 to win Gold while Wightman is 14:1?
he's not, it's the numbers in blue you need to pay attention to.
The 3/1 would just be someone trying to lay him at that price (for peanuts) hoping someone will be mug enough to take the bet
KAV wrote:
THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:
Link? That is an outlandish claim for a guy who ran 3:31 with a race perfectly paced through 900 meters.
I think Rojo mentioned it in one of the recaps
3:31, winning by a mile, 9 weeks before the race he's actually been preparing for all year. he'll be fitter than at the start of june. but then again, he might have travelled badly, he might be nervous, he might be sick.
3:27 low won't have come out of thin air; he'll have done some special workouts. but as we know, the "intrinsic value" nonsense that our old pal ventolin used to come out with means nothing. you have to go out and actually run the times in a race or it's all hot air.
Cole Hocker is a great competitor, but he has to be in a better position with a lap to go. He usually gives himself too much work to do in the final 100.
Len wrote:
Cole Hocker is a great competitor, but he has to be in a better position with a lap to go. He usually gives himself too much work to do in the final 100.
He's obsessed with running in lane 1.
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Passant wrote:
Phil Ken Sebben wrote:
Can we be LetsRun arch nemeses? I hate dirty Moroccans, North Afs in general, and miraculous out-of-nowhere Spaniards, in particular.
You hate anglos and Semites while simultaneously defiling the boards with victim complex BS all under this and other handles.
Where are your proofs about this?
Do you know that Jews lives in Morocco since 2000 years and they are well integrated in the society. Even the exode to Israel was not triggered by Moroccan authorities
You are just an immature fanboy.
I'll take that as a yes.
Where do you think Hocker will finish on Saturday?
High hopes wrote:
THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:
Yes, everyone agrees winning a medal is going to be tough with two 3:28 guys who have the tools to thrive.
Nerves can affect anyone. See Grant Holloway. It's not even that Cole isn't nervous it's just if Tim/Jakob don't do what's expected, does Stewart definitely blast it or is there a lap that lags as everyone finds their bearings. There's a bunch of variables, and a slower than we expect final can transpire as much as Jakob, Tim and McSweyn expect a fast one.
The problem for those hoping for a slow race is that you have two front runners (Tim and McSweyn) plus someone who prefer a high tempo (Jakob). What are the odds all three fail to race in the way that they have raced EVERY single race they have ever run as professionals? This is still going to be a tactical race, but it will be fast and tactical. But honestly, if Hocker does go 3:28/29 and wins a medal, I don't want to hear another word about Katir's progression on these boards, because going from 3:35 to 3:28/29 in six months is suspicious as hell
Didn't hocker go from 3:58 down to 3:50 in a year? That is sus as all get out, but they are all doing it so may the best pharmacy win.
He likes to run in the lane that winners usually run in. I wouldn't call it an obsession. It's served him well so far at every level.
Off the Grid wrote:
joed|rt wrote:
Or maybe he just trusts actual data on the zero benefit game (and increased incidence of adverse reactions) of vaccinating those with previous COVID:
https://www.news-medical.net/news/20210608/No-point-vaccinating-those-whoe28099ve-had-COVID-19-Findings-of-Cleveland-Clinic-study.aspxYou must be one of those people that still uses condoms when your wife is already pregnant.
pre-print. Nothing conclusive.
Why would Hocker want to help anyone? It is not the American way.....
Who would he be helping by getting vaccinated for a disease he already has antibodies to (he had COVID)? There is no additional benefit to the vaccine (other than he will likely be floored for a couple of days as his body mounts the immune response it already has for the virus). People who have already had COVID once are about as people who are fully vaxxed to have a breakthrough infection.
shtfatamericanssay wrote:
Lmao everyone in the 2nd heat ran faster than Hocker is even capable of. He's lucky he was in the loser heat or he wouldn't even be in the finals.
You’re the type of person who said he wouldn’t make it past the prelim.
AP5000 wrote:
the macdaddy og wrote:
Kerr and McSweyn? Have you watched the heats/semis?
They were 3rd and 4th in betting odds going into the games. Odds are offline for now, but I bet they are 6th/7th when they come back up.
They are no longer medal contenders. They’ve looked like garbage thus far.
Huh? Did they not just both run their SF over a second faster than Hocker? What race did you watch? Did you seriously just quote betting odds just try and justify something? Oh boy... 9 guys ran faster than Hocker in that SF.
I’m using betting odds to show that myself - along with those in charge of the money - believe McSweyn and Kerr have looked terrible through two rounds.
I watched McSweyn try to gap the field and get swallowed up the final 150. He was laboring. He’s got no kick. He’s not a medal contender.
I also watched Kerr barely made the semi-final (looking awful) and then doing nothing to impress in the semi.
You believe whatever you want, but I saw one guy run 3:33, closing hard while looking smooth and relaxed. Then, I saw two guys getting smoked, fading backwards while running an all out 3:31.
You think they’re going to improve on their positions with additional world class runners in the final? Ha.
A semi-final is a semi-final. Hocker beating Cheruyiot obviously doesn't mean he has a realistic chance of beating him in the final. Guys in a different semi-final running faster than Hocker doesn't mean they will beat him in the finals. Right now on Betonline I see Hocker at +4000 (40/1). Clearly he's not expected to contend for the win, but he's definitely represented himself well through the semis.
AP5000 wrote:
Len wrote:
Cole Hocker is a great competitor, but he has to be in a better position with a lap to go. He usually gives himself too much work to do in the final 100.
He's obsessed with running in lane 1.
There is that old saying. If it works, don’t fix it. Centro said he fiddled with what worked. And now has to watch the final. If Hocker makes the top 50% in the final that’s a huge success. But people are commenting about this like many do about records. Records are records for a reason (not easy picking) and so are Olympic Finals. The 800m (for men anyway) showed the cards are reshuffled before the final starts. :-)
High hopes wrote:
The problem for those hoping for a slow race is that you have two front runners (Tim and McSweyn) plus someone who prefer a high tempo (Jakob). What are the odds all three fail to race in the way that they have raced EVERY single race they have ever run as professionals? This is still going to be a tactical race, but it will be fast and tactical.
Jakob has run plenty of races (especially championship races) more in the 3:35 range. Sure he loves to run 56+ rhythm, but if the pace isn't set that way he has often done his own thing. I was in fact a bit surprised to see him take out Semi #2 for a bit.
Yes, Tim loves a fast pace and in Doha we saw he's willing to do it in a championship setting. However since then he's worked on his final 100 and 300 winding it up and keeping guys at bay. The competition has gotten much faster and deeper. He's shown he's been effective in winning 3:30-31 races as well using these tactics. A measured 3:30-3:31 would be a different scenario than what most are expecting.
Also, it seems like him and Jakob are anticipating that if they lead briefly that McSweyn will be happy to take it on...but when will that move come? Is there a scenario where Tim/Jakob take it out in 54-56 but the pace lags til about 800 or 700 to go as they wait for him to go but he lurks without a move. He knows his kick is a weakness but there's a good history of a drive from 800 out burning off kickers.
High hopes wrote:
kokoko wrote:
I'm surprised he didn't react when Wightman went past him. Look kinda flat.
Hocker couldn't react, he was gassed off the sub-3:35 pace. Some perspective: he's come to his first Olympics, made the final, and run a PB. He's already "won", you can't expect more than that from a rookie. The final is him playing with house money
What are you talking about? I saw a guy close a 3:33 in 52.8, just doing what he needed to advance, and you’re telling me he was “gassed off the sub-3:35 pace” and “couldn’t react.” Did we watch the same race?
I agree he’s already “won” but come on. If you can’t see he has more in the tank you don’t understand this sport.
THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:
It is somewhat crazily true:
“I wanted him in shape to be able to run 3:27,” Mackey says. “And I think he is. I think he’s able to run 3:27-low.”
Just a reminder: only five men in history have run 3:27.
I'm not really sure who Danny Mackey has coached though to make such a claim. If Kerr is in 3:27 fitness, that heat is going to be some weird sort of footnote like Tim's Kenyan Trials race. The facts are his fastest run so far is a 3:31-mid with 900m of pacing at 3:30 pace and then a slowdown... And I'm not that impressed by the 800m workout either that looks completely inapplicable to the type of race we're going to see as well.
https://www.letsrun.com/news/2021/07/2020-olympic-mens-1500-preview-timothy-cheruiyot-is-the-man-to-beat-but-will-we-get-another-olympic-upset/
He's coached Athlete MF Special!
I don't think Kerr looked bad in the semi, but I don't see him as a medal threat tbh.
I don't think Hocker can get a medal in a sub 3:30 race, but I think he'll surprise a lot of people if the finishing time ends up being 3:30+
Len wrote:
Cole Hocker is a great competitor, but he has to be in a better position with a lap to go. He usually gives himself too much work to do in the final 100.
Chill out bro, it was a semi. I thought he was nicely placed to guarantee himself a Q, and he did better, he got 2nd.