Hocker vs Ingebrigtsen in Tokyo

Finance Bro wrote:

Armstronglivs wrote:

If Hocker was a Ryun, or a Wottle, I would rate his Olympic chances highly. But he isn't.

Can you be specific as to what you mean by this? How is Hocker not "a Ryun" or "a Wottle" ?

It doesn't make sense to compare Hocker to guys who competed 50 years ago. A better comparison would be Hocker vs. 2011 Matthew Centrowitz. I see a lot of similarities, and just like Centro I like Hocker's chances to make it onto the podium in Tokyo.

Ryun was the reigning world record holder before Mexico (but was defeated by mono and altitude). A monster talent. Wottle was the co-equal world record holder for the 800 in '72 and one of the fastest in the mile. They had to be favoured in their events. However promising, Hocker has shown none of that kind of class. Unless it's a lottery, the best tend to win. He isnt.

If Jakob isn't gapping the field with 300 to go, he will pay dearly. Nothing indicates he has ever been able to handle 12.xx for the final 100. It will be like Farah 2011 in Daegu against Jeilan.

I thought we were discussing the men's events - at the Olympics, not the world champs. My point still stands - the US didn't produce an Olympic md champion from Wottle in '72 till Centro in 2016, (which I regard as a bit of a fluke). But if minor placings and women's events rock your boat - by all means.

A Brazilian wrote:

It is faster than 13.4. You cant see precisely because of the camara but if you freeze at 3:20.0 the leader hasn't passed the 100m mark and Barega is well behind. So your correction is actually incorrect.

My correction is 100% correct. If you freeze the race at approximately 3:20.7 Barega is right at 100 meters to go. If you freeze the race as his body crosses the finish line it is at 3:34.1. Approximately 13.4 seconds. Do the math. You notice that Barega is barely beating Bethwell Birgen in this video and you wonder why. Let's compare Birgen's medal collection to Centro's buddy.

Armstronglivs wrote:

I thought I clarified that I meant counting not the N Africans of this era, but the 80's and 90's, when I said the Africans have dominated these events. I tend to think its Ingebrigtsen who's most likely going to change that domination this year. But Hocker - I doubt it - and I would be surprised if Centro is in contention again.

You're on some weird history lesson here, when the relevant information is of the last 10 years. Yes, pre-EPO test and biological passport when Morocco had the greatest 1500m runner ever and a rampant state-run doping program, I'd give the best American 1500m runner less of a chance. No...that hasn't been the case for many years, so it doesn't matter.

In this current era the mid-distance powers have been Kenya and the USA, yet we should discount the Trials champion because of the 1990s era and before?

Yes, I will give it to you. You're right. More like 13.3 but you are correct on that one.

Still, closing 1s slower than Hocker in a race that's also 1s faster and indoors show that Hocker is a superior 1500m runner? I am sorry, i won't give this one to you. If he proves it in Tokyo, yes. But not on the trials race only, no.

And i would bet my money on a prime Mo Farah against him on a 1500m as well. No doubt.

I am far from a Mo Farah fan. But he was a 3 28 runner, that shows some speed endurance. And in terms of kick, theres a 5k race where he closes in 50. Yes that was a slow race but still, he averaged 12.7 or so per 100m. What was his fastest 100m segment in that race, i am not sure, but certainly close to 12.2

the race against Jeilan was mentioned, ok, but he was still a runner improving back then.

My "weird history lesson" is that taking the longer view the US has had a relatively poor record in these events. But discounting history if you wish and looking more at the situation as it stands today I would see the winner of these US Olympic trials as an absolute outsider. I doubt that he's Billy Mills.

A Brazilian wrote:

And i would bet my money on a prime Mo Farah against him on a 1500m as well. No doubt.

I am far from a Mo Farah fan. But he was a 3 28 runner, that shows some speed endurance. And in terms of kick, theres a 5k race where he closes in 50. Yes that was a slow race but still, he averaged 12.7 or so per 100m. What was his fastest 100m segment in that race, i am not sure, but certainly close to 12.2

I said against Centro for Farah. And no Mo Farah would not beat Centro in a tactical 1500 championship race.

AP5000 wrote:

What global final has Hocker medaled in?

What global final has Jakob medaled in?

Armstronglivs wrote:

My "weird history lesson" is that taking the longer view the US has had a relatively poor record in these events. But discounting history if you wish and looking more at the situation as it stands today I would see the winner of these US Olympic trials as an absolute outsider.

It is weird to worry about results from many decades ago that have little to no relevance. Should I be expecting the distance races to be dominated by Finnish athletes like in the 70s? Or the Moroccans to dominate the 5K and 10K like in the 90s? Of course not.

Meanwhile, you ignore the actual recent trends of the 800 and 1500, which show Kenya and the USA as two consistent forces no matter how obscure to you the names may be at first blush ~ be it Kitum, Murphy, Manzano, Manangoi, Centrowitz, Brazier, Symmonds, Rotich, Cheruiyot, Hoppel, Kiplagat, Kiprop ** or Solomon.

A Brazilian wrote:

Yes, I will give it to you. You're right. More like 13.3 but you are correct on that one.

Still, closing 1s slower than Hocker in a race that's also 1s faster and indoors show that Hocker is a superior 1500m runner? I am sorry, i won't give this one to you. If he proves it in Tokyo, yes. But not on the trials race only, no.

Indoors is just as fast as outdoors pretty much. If it's not Hocker ran a 3:50 mile indoors. Now you're in a pretzel good luck with that being worth something faster than Barega's PB.

A second in the last 100 of a 1500 is a lot. Hocker's closing 300 was waaay faster than Barega's. If Barega puts up a comparable performance to that random indoor meet you showed me he probably finishes with Engels or Henry Wynne.

You sidestepped my last point about Hocker. He is a complete outsider when it comes to considering an Olympic title. So how do you seriously rate his chances?

pay attention wrote:

AP5000 wrote:

What global final has Hocker medaled in?

What global final has Jakob medaled in?

Not a lot happened in 2020, but there was a big meet that showed Tim and J.I. can pretty much frontrun almost four laps. Fast, too.

Armstronglivs wrote:

Finance Bro wrote:

Can you be specific as to what you mean by this? How is Hocker not "a Ryun" or "a Wottle" ?

It doesn't make sense to compare Hocker to guys who competed 50 years ago. A better comparison would be Hocker vs. 2011 Matthew Centrowitz. I see a lot of similarities, and just like Centro I like Hocker's chances to make it onto the podium in Tokyo.

Ryun was the reigning world record holder before Mexico (but was defeated by mono and altitude). A monster talent. Wottle was the co-equal world record holder for the 800 in '72 and one of the fastest in the mile. They had to be favoured in their events. However promising, Hocker has shown none of that kind of class. Unless it's a lottery, the best tend to win. He isnt.

Hocker hasn't shown that kind of class, but he also hasn't been in a position or had a chance to show that kind of class. It wouldn't be unreasonable to think Hocker is in 3:31 or so 1500m shape right now in a time trial type of race. With that kind of fitness and with the devastating finishing speed he's shown already, in a 3:34 - 3:38 type of race at the Olympics he could very well end up on the podium. Not saying he's a favorite to medal, but I like his odds as much as anyone not named Ingebrigtsen.

Here are Olympic medal count by country in the men’s 800 and 1500 since 1992.

Kenya - 13

Algeria - 5

Morocco, USA - 4

South Africa - 3

Denmark, New Zealand, Spain - 2

France, Qatar, Botswana, Sudan, Germany, Russia, Norway - 1

Not super applicable to the convo at this point but felt like smashing this together.

Armstronglivs wrote:

You sidestepped my last point about Hocker. He is a complete outsider when it comes to considering an Olympic title. So how do you seriously rate his chances?

As a USA champion who ran very competitive splits against a 2-time WC medalist and Olympic champion in Centrowitz, I give him a very good shot. After Jakob, it's a wide-open field. Certainly on credentials Manzano would've been at best 10th-15th in the world coming of the 2012 trials. But then he outkicked the previous year's bronze medalist. Yet aside from Makhloufi who came out of nowhere Manzano beat every single person in the field.

The last of my concerns for Hocker is his PB, or his raw ability. He's going to need to get his positioning right to make noise in deep fields. That is very much a WIP as you saw in the 1500 finals he needed a little bit of positioning luck to win that race. I think he going to make the top 3 no matter what.

Ingebrigtsen is not known for 25 second closing 200s. Hocker hasn't proved himself in a fast paced race.

Centro for the win.

(Unless Tim is there, healthy.)

highhoppingworm wrote:

Here are Olympic medal count by country in the men’s 800 and 1500 since 1992.

Kenya - 13

Algeria - 5

Morocco, USA - 4

South Africa - 3

Denmark, New Zealand, Spain - 2

France, Qatar, Botswana, Sudan, Germany, Russia, Norway - 1

Not super applicable to the convo at this point but felt like smashing this together.

Yep and some good depth from the Americans especially in the last two cycles. No medals but 4th and 5th from Symmonds and Solomon in the 2012 Olympics 800m. Centrowitz 4th in 2012. Blankenship 8th in 2016 with Berian a finalist in the 800m.

To clarify, I do think the Brits are trending up. Their 2019 WC performance was an improvement, but we've seen it from the USA and Kenya pretty consistently, so not sure why a very strong 1500 and 800 contingent this year would be counted out.