Confirmed: Joshua Cheptegei WILL go for Komen's legendary 7:20.67 on Wednesday!!

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

Coevett wrote:

The nearest WADA lab is in Nairobi. We know that corruption is endemic in that part of the world and that 'tea money' bribes have been the norm in Kenya for years. No reason to believe that it's different in a neighbouring country with similar levels of corruption. Ask yourself why Uganda has relatively suddenly emerged as a powerhouse just when testing was tightened up in Kenya. Of course his management hypes him up and publicizes his races. Frederico Rosa is there to make money out of him.

It's possible I guess he's not doping, but when Frederico Rosa, a man chased out of Kenya over doping allegations, unearths a Ugandan superstar when that country had no real history of distance success, a superstar capable of breaking the most infamous of the full throttle EPO era records, then you ought to be a tad sceptical. To say he's no more suspicious than Nick Willis is ridiculous.

See Coevett you just make stuff up without facts on your side. Cheptegei is on the NN Running Team and his agent is Jurrie van der Velden Apple. Rosa literally represents one Ugandan, Jacob Kiplimo. Rosa has not been chased out of Kenya he literally represents 25 Kenyans.

This is all available information:

Rosa-

https://www.worldathletics.org/athletes/athlete-representatives/directory/federico-rosa-169284

Cheptegei's Agent and for more Ugandans -

https://www.worldathletics.org/athletes/athlete-representatives/directory/jurrie-van-der-velden-231233

rekrunner wrote:

Armstronglivs wrote:

If you know about "modern training", does that suggest everybody trains the same - because if they don't then they aren't training in a "modern" way? Then can you explain what is Cheptegei's training programme. I assume you know because it explains everything to your satisfaction about his 1500 time. And then explain how you know, when you aren't part of his coaching team.

What I have already explained is that modern training would prescribe and predict a 1500m, this early in the season, as fast as 3:35, and not faster. Take into account 1-2 seconds for altitude, and the reality matches the prediction pretty much spot on.

As further confirmation, modern training suggests a 7:20-7:23-ish attempt at 3000m, about 1 month later, as a logical progression towards extending the established intensity, on the way to 5000m.

Whatever everybody else is doing, and whatever else Cheptegei is doing, modern training offers a highly superior explanation for a 3:37 1500m at altitude in April, and a world record attempt at 3000m in May, in preparation for a 5000m/10000m Olympics this summer.

rekrunner wrote:

Armstronglivs wrote:

So he won't get the record after all? Just top 5 or top 10? I thought so.

So if it is just "endurance" that is required to beat the record, and speed is irrelevant, how is it that no great endurance runner has got near it in 25 years?

You show you have no understanding of the reality of running, that with each distance from the sprints up there is a progressive slowing, and that a given level of performance requires speed as well as endurance. As a 2 minute half miler cannot run a 4 minute mile, a runner who cannot run substantially faster than 3.40 for the 1500 will not run 7.20 for the 3k. An athlete must slow as the distance of the event increases - the splits cannot be anywhere near his best over the distance they measure. As the 5k world record holder Komen showed that sub-3.30 speed over 1500 was necessary to run 7.20 - and he had phenomenal endurance. No one slower than him has got near his record. They would have no chance. That is also Cheptegei.

No one faster than Komen got near his record either.

I wouldn't dismiss a WR completely -- his 5000m WR predicts 7:12-7:16, and his 10000m WR predicts 7:11-7:14.

It will largely depend on pacing, drafting, and how fit he is now, in mid-May.

7:23-7:25 is just a conservative prediction that would still be a huge success towards the goal of the Olympics.

I didn't say speed was irrelevant. I said you don't need 3:29 speed, as you claim is necesary. You need 3:40 endurance. With stronger endurance, like Cheptegei's, you would need less speed.

I have already explained why great runners didn't get near it. The greatest ones didn't really try, because 3000m is not an interesting distance to train for. It is not an Olympic event, nor a World Championship event, nor really a Diamond League event. However, it was run in some of the early years of the Golden League, and in some Diamond League races.

Your model of progressive slowing for longer distances only makes sense when we have maximum efforts to compare. In a modern training context, we do not always have maximum efforts, but constrain our SPECIFIC paces to 95%-105% of target race pace of the desired event.

rekrunner wrote:

Armstronglivs wrote:

So he won't get the record after all? Just top 5 or top 10? I thought so.

So if it is just "endurance" that is required to beat the record, and speed is irrelevant, how is it that no great endurance runner has got near it in 25 years?

You show you have no understanding of the reality of running, that with each distance from the sprints up there is a progressive slowing, and that a given level of performance requires speed as well as endurance. As a 2 minute half miler cannot run a 4 minute mile, a runner who cannot run substantially faster than 3.40 for the 1500 will not run 7.20 for the 3k. An athlete must slow as the distance of the event increases - the splits cannot be anywhere near his best over the distance they measure. As the 5k world record holder Komen showed that sub-3.30 speed over 1500 was necessary to run 7.20 - and he had phenomenal endurance. No one slower than him has got near his record. They would have no chance. That is also Cheptegei.

No one faster than Komen got near his record either.

I wouldn't dismiss a WR completely -- his 5000m WR predicts 7:12-7:16, and his 10000m WR predicts 7:11-7:14.

It will largely depend on pacing, drafting, and how fit he is now, in mid-May.

7:23-7:25 is just a conservative prediction that would still be a huge success towards the goal of the Olympics.

I didn't say speed was irrelevant. I said you don't need 3:29 speed, as you claim is necesary. You need 3:40 endurance. With stronger endurance, like Cheptegei's, you would need less speed.

I have already explained why great runners didn't get near it. The greatest ones didn't really try, because 3000m is not an interesting distance to train for. It is not an Olympic event, nor a World Championship event, nor really a Diamond League event. However, it was run in some of the early years of the Golden League, and in some Diamond League races.

Your model of progressive slowing for longer distances only makes sense when we have maximum efforts to compare. In a modern training context, we do not always have maximum efforts, but constrain our SPECIFIC paces to 95%-105% of target race pace of the desired event.