Down goes the Dow

I changed my mind. I think Igy is on to something.

I am going to buy on Thursday's dip.

I don't want to be left behind either. To get along you go along.

Yippee!

I will be in for a buy Thursday at $2360!

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Sure, whatever you say Mr. Idiot. Buy Thursday on the dip with Blind Mellon.

Well you obviously wrote that, the posts are there as proof. Why would you say that and then try to ignore it? Did you mean it or not?

Don't expect an honest answer. Igy makes a lot of mistakes, but he lacks the personal character to admit them. Instead you can expect more cryptic posts and avoidance of taking responsibility. It's his modus operandi.

I think I was off by a couple of days.

idiot investor wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Sure, whatever you say Mr. Idiot. Buy Thursday on the dip with Blind Mellon.

Well you obviously wrote that, the posts are there as proof. Why would you say that and then try to ignore it? Did you mean it or not?

How can a prediction for the coming year be "off by a couple of days?"

more inflation news -

producer price index plus 2.2% y/y

that, and compressed junk spreads and high stocks...market is telling us good things are coming.

bull markets do not die of old age - they need a crisis to kill them off.

The stock market dies from excessive valuation.

Bump

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

POTO,

How about double or nothing and we extend out bet six months to March 13, 2017? New President and Administration? Could be interesting?

Igy

Sorry, Igy, but you're wrong again. Your record hasn't been very stellar.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

The stock market dies from excessive valuation.

the dotcom burst is the only one that makes any real sense for...and even then it only makes partial sense.

otherwise for a bear market you need a shock to the system. A recession, an oil embargo, a massive spike in interest rates, a national disaster etc.

stocks dont' fall sharply just because of a highly valued market.

10 year returns will be poorer starting at high valuations tho

agip wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

The stock market dies from excessive valuation.

the dotcom burst is the only one that makes any real sense for...and even then it only makes partial sense.

otherwise for a bear market you need a shock to the system. A recession, an oil embargo, a massive spike in interest rates, a national disaster etc.

stocks dont' fall sharply just because of a highly valued market.

10 year returns will be poorer starting at high valuations tho

As far as I'm concerned, the above is all correct. I would add that a new type of shock could come from the failure of trading infrastructure--power outages, communication interruptions, viruses, some combination of those factors, etc.

Also, Wed will probably be the small dip, if there is one. This rate hike is already largely priced in.

Everything is bullish. Rate hike = inflation = economic growth = earnings growth and price inflation.

This is how things are perceived, and it is perception that matters more than substance.

I notice that nobody opined on Bitcoin or other cryptos. While considering Bitcoin I got my feet wet in Ethereum, and put in a thousand bucks, for fun...and profit. I might take it out and buy Bitcoin with it, just for fun...and profit.

Mellon wrote:

Detector Dude is a moron, make your own decision on whether to pay attention to any of his posts. Under numerous handles I might add.

Oh the irony!

Detector: Thanks for calling him out! He stole my handle for this one.

That was actually Igy who stole your handle. He's become the thread's primary troll.

POTO,

OK, quadruple or nothing. How about 9/13/2017?

Igy

idiot investor wrote:

How can a prediction for the coming year be "off by a couple of days?"

Bump

The consensus view is that Bear Markets are caused by an event trigger, could be a recession or some other excuse to sell. That trigger is only "discovered" after the fact, but the overvaluation, or the reason stocks were not a good investment was there. The event accelerates the decline. Technology stocks in 1997 and houses in 2005 were poor investments. You did not have to wait until 2002 or 2010 to figure it out. Most here are destined to make the same mistake. All you are doing is picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. If you can sell to a greater fool, then good for you. But someone must hold each share of stock thru the full market cycle.

Unfortunately, this maybe the future.When the Bear Market comes, it starts with a 10% decline, most here will be waiting for the bounce. They will breathe a sigh of relief on the first bounce, thinking it will be like August/September 2015 or January/February 2016. The following decline will be real Bear Market territory. Down 30%, many will feel it is too late to sell. Here is the punch line. Lastly, another notch lower, if we are lucky is stops down 50%, this thread will be quiet. In disgust, the Down Goes the Dow passive investors hit the sell button.

Igy

"Most here are destined to make the same mistake."

I think you severely underestimate the intelligence of most here.

Gruntz wrote:

"Most here are destined to make the same mistake."

I think you severely underestimate the intelligence of most here.

"The market is way overpriced. It's not as intellectual as people would think, or as economists would have you believe."

--Robert Shiller, March 14, 2017