Down goes the Dow

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

folks like you lost 50% of their equity value twice in the last eighteen years.

Why would make up something like this? You have no idea what my investments, or anybody else's (except your own) have done over the last 18 years. And then you wonder why people call BS on everything you say.

Moderator #3 wrote:

Here is the point of the thread. Markets go up and down. You have no idea when.

No! That's not the point of the thread.

Read the OP from almost 4 years ago. It predicts a drop to 13,000. That has never happened yet.

Detector Dude you make assumptions about me almost daily.

Detector Dude falls in-line:

JPM's punchline:

"This apparent unwillingness by institutional investors to raise their equity exposures YTD reinforces the argument that it is retail rather than institutional investors that most likely drove this year’s strong inflows into equity ETFs and as a result this year’s equity rally."

mellon wrote:

Moderator #3 wrote:

Here is the point of the thread. Markets go up and down. You have no idea when.

No! That's not the point of the thread.

Read the OP from almost 4 years ago. It predicts a drop to 13,000. That has never happened yet.

You can't read.

It was not a prediction. It was a fear and I was letting you know that I got out of the marker after a four year run-up.

In hindsight it was not the right move at that time.

But a crash is coming. And it may make 2008-09 look tame.

As is everyone's -- unless you are big enuff or influential enuff to move the market. Or have inside info.

Investment advice is worthless.

Igy: "The market was roughly at the same level on 11/7/2016 as when I first posted 3/2/2015, I hardly think anything fundamental has really changed."

agip: "saying nothing fundamental has changed is grossly unfair - earnings are surging, oil has stabilized, inflation is rising, wages are rising, manufacturing is rising strongly, the governmetn is talking large stimulus again...."

Supporting my view is the following:

1) At the close of Q4 2016 (12/31/2016) S&P 500 non-GAAP EPS was projected to come in at $30.48. At this point 92.4% of companies have reported for Q4 2016, and non-GAAP is projected at $28.37, and has been falling throughout the earnings season. So any belief that EPS is surging does not line-up with the data.

2) I am not seeing inflation rising to the degree you are. For example, automobile manufacturers are offering incentives not seen in years. High end properties are being discounted to attract buyers. Rents in high growth areas have been in decline, most notably Silicon Valley, San Francisco and Miami.

3) I will give you wages and a push on manufacturer. Wage growth is a late business cycle trend.

4) Trump administration talking infrastructure and defense spending is different than action. We will see how that talk meets reality.

Igy

One cannot judge anything about the broader "art market" by one sale. To wit:

http://www.cnn.com/2017/03/02/arts/sothebys-impressionist-modern-surrealist-sales/index.html

And it's not just Klimt. "Sales overall totaled at $240.8m (£194.7m) -- an increase of 108% on the equivalent sale last year, marking a buoyant return to form for the global art market, after a difficult 2016."

The art market is very particular, by artist, by piece, by collector, by history, by provenance, etc. etc. You really have to know what you are doing, and put in the required work. We did very well, and still have a few pieces that we will never sell because we like them, they are on our walls.

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I agree that nothing substantive has changed for the better--for instance raw wages might have increased, but household disposable income has dropped. BUT I do believe that perceptions have changed, voluntarily or not. Even institutions are capitulating to the monolithic market...and when everybody is on the same page, retail and institutional, then there really is ONLY one page at all.

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re: Fed rate hike. Fed raises rates to keep inflation in check, but its measure of inflation is a price measure (PCE), and the PCE numbers we see are not correlated with economic growth. It's even worse than it appears, because the GDP numbers are increasingly positive-bias fudged.

Are increased rates effective at curbing price inflation? No. They can decrease GDP growth by decreasing the velocity of money, but won't necessarily affect prices in the desired direction--and GDP growth is already meager, below their target, I think.

So is the Fed's stated goal their actual goal, since their response won't produce the stated desired effect? I doubt it. If they really wanted to decrease PCE they would do things like lobby for more Chinese crap at the consumer level, and decrease the money supply. They have no incentive to reign in non-existent rampant economic growth. "Cooling off overheated growth", lol. More like throwing cold water on glowing embers.

It is more likely that they want to re-normalize, so that political problems like pension fund insolvency can be addressed with new bond regimes.

Pleazse wrote:

But a crash is coming. And it may make 2008-09 look tame.

Wow! Genius

And the time frame? Let me guess, between now and 2080.

mellon wrote:

Pleazse wrote:

But a crash is coming. And it may make 2008-09 look tame.

Wow! Genius

And the time frame? Let me guess, between now and 2080.

I take it you agree that a major crash is on the horizon.

Obviously I don't know exactly when. I am not like you guys who think people can actually give fact based advice on investing.

I just know it is coming. My guess? Tough one. Maybe in the fall of 2019?

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Sure, good point, but does it really matter if a year from now the Dow is at 9,500?

Is that your call then? Dow 9500 within a year? Be bold. Own it. Any fool can claim doom and gloom and then claim victory when a disaster eventually strikes. That is all pessimists have going for them.

Only have to be right once in a million times because sooner or later something bad will happen.

Sad life.

Pleazse wrote:

mellon wrote:

Wow! Genius

And the time frame? Let me guess, between now and 2080.

I take it you agree that a major crash is on the horizon.

Obviously I don't know exactly when. I am not like you guys who think people can actually give fact based advice on investing.

I just know it is coming. My guess? Tough one. Maybe in the fall of 2019?

Easy to say a major market crash is coming. Perhaps if you could say why you believe that it would be easier to nail down a time prediction.

What has changed recently in a drastic way? Unless you can give reasons for your beliefs it is hard to see you as anything else but just another doomsday prophet who regrets they missed the ride up.

Let me guess, you don't live in CA for fear of the eventual big earthquake.

Pleazse wrote:

mellon wrote:

Wow! Genius

And the time frame? Let me guess, between now and 2080.

I take it you agree that a major crash is on the horizon.

Obviously I don't know exactly when. I am not like you guys who think people can actually give fact based advice on investing.

I just know it is coming. My guess? Tough one. Maybe in the fall of 2019?

Easy to say a major market crash is coming. Perhaps if you could say why you believe that it would be easier to nail down a time prediction.

What has changed recently in a drastic way? Unless you can give reasons for your beliefs it is hard to see you as anything else but just another doomsday prophet who regrets they missed the ride up.

Let me guess, you don't live in CA for fear of the eventual big earthquake.

Detector Dude, you sound angry today. Is it because the market is down?

re; earnings surging - from factset, suggesting a 4.6% jump in earnings y/y. You are proving a different claim - that earnigns have fallen below some estimates. That's a different issue, and in no way means earnings aren't rising.

(And factset suggests that by their measure, earnings came in better than expected, not worse)

"The blended (combines actual results for companies that have reported and estimated results for companies that have

yet to report) year-over-year earnings growth rate for Q4 2016 is 4.6% today, which is above the estimated earnings

growth rate of 3.1% on December 31. "

Inflation: I'm just going by CPI, PPI...each shows rising inflation. Much more meaningful than your anecdotal evidence, no?

Dow 9500? wrote:

Pleazse wrote:

Wow! Genius

And the time frame? Let me guess, between now and 2080.

I take it you agree that a major crash is on the horizon.

Obviously I don't know exactly when. I am not like you guys who think people can actually give fact based advice on investing.

I just know it is coming. My guess? Tough one. Maybe in the fall of 2019?

Easy to say a major market crash is coming. Perhaps if you could say why you believe that it would be easier to nail down a time prediction.

Why? Because it has happened twice in the past 17 years and not a thing has been done to address the underlying problems. In fact,Wall Street has been emboldened to continue in ever more risky behavior seeing as how it knows it will be bailed out when it blows up the economy.

My God. Do you people even pay attention to what goes on? Or just to what the "experts" tell you?

I'm thikning of cutting back on small caps - they are getting killed day after day. Year to day they are behind big caps by 300 bps.

this is hard for me because I am usually overweight the little guys. But just seems to me the big guys are moving now.

I wish I had more data behind that. but I can't fall to far behind the indices, and the poor performance in small caps is hurting me.

probably this is an emotional call rather than data driven. Maybe I should do mroe research first...

agip wrote:

the people who have done the best have bought the us stock market index, added regularly, never tried to be cute or clever, and never opened their statemetns.

How do they know that you opened your statement? I'm new to investing and trying pick the right stocks.