Down goes the Dow

Every industry has its bad apples. Just because Morgan Stanley investment advisors are bending the rules doesn't mean others are. There are many reputable firms and independent advisors out there.

Due your due diligence. A reputable advisor will be open and transparent, unlike the cover-up and deceptive practices we've seen here.

Fact Checker wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Detector Dude:

Let's discuss these these relevant facts first.

1. Explain how you replicated my handle to make slanderous post that appeared to be from me?

2. Explain why you now post using the handle "Portia"?

We can discuss your guilt and motivations later.

Igy

Gypcee wrote:

Ghost. I really thought that you knew at least something about this. If you had 300 grand to invest, would you put it in cash? Or do you really not know anything about this sort of thing?

Ghost disappeared once he was asked for an answer. Wow....

He didn't disappear. He just started using a different handle. That's what cowards do.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Detector Dude:

Let's discuss these these relevant facts first.

1. Explain how you replicated my handle to make slanderous post that appeared to be from me?

2. Explain why you now post using the handle "Portia"?

We can discuss your guilt and motivations later.

Igy

[/quote][/quote]

Hey guys, what's the opinion among you on what we can expect for interest rates in this administration? No doubt they'll creep up, but is anyone reputable forecast 30yr mortgages getting back into the 6-8% range like was saw in the 90's?

Maserati,

I know you aren't trying to be a dick.

First of all, predicting anything in economics with any kind of certainty is darn near impossible. There are so many variables. In dynamics, for instance, it is easy to predict the future if there are a few forces involved. Add too many forces, and it is near impossible. And so it is in economics. There is also the variable of people's perception of what is going to happen, so that further compounds the problem. If enough people think the market if going to go up, then it probably will, since that means more money will keep flowing into the market.

Why hasn't the bubble burst in the past few years? The simplistic reason is that money keeps moving into the market, because people perceive the market to give a favorable return. One reason I can give is, where else can anyone get a return that exceeds inflation? Rates of more secure investments have been kept depressed by monetary policy, which in turn has contributed to hyper-inflated PE ratios. Another reason, I would guess (and it is a guess), is that a growing number of young investors are following the Jack Bogle/ Warren Buffet plan of just putting money consistently into an S&O indexed fund. I believe this is sound advice. A young person will experience a half dozen or so crashes in their career, but that doesn't really matter. Being in it for the long haul, and not worrying, is a way to earn a decent rate of return.

We can however rule out certain things in economics, however. If you look at the overall valuation of the stock market, I would bet my milk money that the market will not return 10%, year after year, for the next 10 years. There are too many things that have to go right for that to happen. The only choice is for the market to be consistently overvalued to 10 years. That is probably not going to happen. markets always correct at some point.

The previous post using my handle was not mine, which should be obvious due to the clumsy quoting. I'm sure we all know who is behind this handle theft.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Detector Dude:

Let's discuss these these relevant facts first.

1. Explain how you replicated my handle to make slanderous post that appeared to be from me?

2. Explain why you now post using the handle "Portia"?

We can discuss your guilt and motivations later.

Igy

Ghost of 29:

"Speculators often prosper through ignorance; it is a cliché that in a roaring bull market knowledge is superfluous and experience is a handicap. But the typical experience of the speculator is one of temporary profit and ultimate loss."

Benjamin Graham

I agree with that! During the tech bubble everyone was an expert.

Ghost of 29,

World Com and Lucent Technology disappeared, Intel and Cisco were never the same. Barton Biggs famously wrote about his fictional plumber giving him stock tips. Unfortunately in this bubble it is all expensive and blind buying of index funds has magnified the distortion. I find the hubris interesting and typical of the worst bubbles of my career.

Igy

Ghost of 29,

Here is an article from that era, written after the bubble peaked in March of 2000. I guess BTFD didn't turn out so well.

https://article.wn.com/view/2000/05/21/Maybe_Barton_Biggs_should_listen_to_his_plumber_who_buys_dip/

I remember very clearly Biggs warning of corporate financed technology equipment for companies that had no income. Or Simon Flannery going on the record admist much criticism outlining the WorldCom accounting irregularities.

The skeptics today face the same gloom and doomer criticism.

We really do learn very little.

Igy

Igy

I asked you a question. Apparently you are incapable of giving an answer. Why is that little man?

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Detector Dude:

Let's discuss these these relevant facts first.

1. Explain how you replicated my handle to make slanderous post that appeared to be from me?

2. Explain why you now post using the handle "Portia"?

We can discuss your guilt and motivations later.

Igy

Gypcee wrote:

Igy

I asked you a question. Apparently you are incapable of giving an answer. Why is that little man?

Considering the patient's (Detector) past behavior. In my diagnosis an obvious case of psychological projection, exposing severe sexual inadequaces, perhaps impotence. We can try Viagara first or penile implants as a last resort.

Sigmund Freud

Dr Freud wrote:

Gypcee wrote:

Igy

I asked you a question. Apparently you are incapable of giving an answer. Why is that little man?

Considering the patient's (Detector) past behavior. In my diagnosis an obvious case of psychological projection, exposing severe sexual inadequaces, perhaps impotence. We can try Viagara first or penile implants as a last resort.

Sigmund Freud

Are you mentally ill? What the hell are you talking about?

Sounds like Detector, I think Dr Freud nailed it.

Pretty funny.

Investment Advisor wrote:

Sounds like Detector, I think Dr Freud nailed it.

Pretty funny.

I am new to this thread but it appears as if it should be deleted as there are a few posters with tiny cokks and many aliases just screwing around.