Sunday Mail Has More Details on Paula's Blood Values and Off Scores + News She'll Put up £1m for an MRI lie detector

To live. What's the question?

Location South wrote:

Rekrunner,

Just curious, if you were forced to do the gun to the head test what would be your choice?

Shobukhova's 14:23 PB in the 5000 from 2008 translates to a 2:18:05 marathon. All of her race results were annulled from 2009 to 2014, which probably just means we was already doping in 2008 but paying the officials to not be reported. Paula's 14:29 5k, 30:01 10k, and 1:05:40 half all translate to a 2:18 marathon.So apparently she really dialed in her blood values for that magical day in 2003 when she went 2:15:25

Rushkie wrote:

Shobukhova actually was amongst the best before moving to the marathon, take a look at her pb's. Indeed Paula 'doped' must be a 2.11/12 runner, or still 5 minutes better than anyone else... Who doped. Remarkable.

interesting enough wrote:

Paula's 14:29 5k, 30:01 10k, and 1:05:40 half all translate to a 2:18 marathon.

So apparently she really dialed in her blood values for that magical day in 2003 when she went 2:15:25

One of the interesting tidbits here is that she had a huge jump in performance in literally all long distances around 2001/2, i.e. at age 28. Before that, she was trying to catch athletes like Jo Pavey. Such a jump rather late... Really strange, comparable with drug cheat Baumann and drug cheat Shobukhova and doorbell Farah. In Farah's case, officially it was situps, in Paula's, mileage increase. Makes sense, as both are extremely important criteria for 5000 m runners.

In any case, if anyone here really thinks that Paula might have been clean (and isn't just trolling around here), consider this:

3 minutes faster than the next best person in 2016? Paula's 2:15 in 2003 would be paralleled by, say, Baldini having run a 1:59 in 2003. Only very few people (mostly Italians then) would have believed in such a performance.

Good example. Lance developed a doping strategy not quite replicated before, during or after.

Fill in the blanks wrote:

Did Lance discover a doping strategy, or secret substance, that no one else in Tour de France history was able to duplicate?

Or does doping play a much smaller role than "it's thought".

rekrunner wrote:

Did Paula discover a doping strategy, or secret substance, that no one else in female marathon history was able to duplicate?

Or does doping play a much smaller role than "it's thought".

rekrunner wrote:

Good example. Lance developed a doping strategy not quite replicated before, during or after.

Something like that. According to Tygart, it was the most daring, sophisticated and encompassing doping program that ever existed. Including the whole team. It skyrocketed Armstrong from something like place 35 to place 1, seven times.

That's different from Paula's case, imo. I don't think she was the most extreme doper; she was simply the best, and a great responder, during that dirty time, when one could use blood transfusions and EPO all year long, almost without risk. But maybe I am just too much of a fan, and she was the worst steroid user on top of everything.

In any case, it will probably take a few more decades until training, nutrition and shoes have improved that much, that a clean woman can match that performance - probably about the same time a man will break 2 hours.

casual obsever wrote:

In any case, it will probably take a few more decades until training, nutrition and shoes have improved that much, that a clean woman can match that performance - probably about the same time a man will break 2 hours.

What do you think the reactions (from the press, fans, Paula, the IAAF) would be if a woman breaks her mark in the next couple of years?

And would the woman's nationality influence the reactions?

interesting enough wrote:

What do you think the reactions (from the press, fans, Paula, the IAAF) would be if a woman breaks her mark in the next couple of years?

And would the woman's nationality influence the reactions?

Good questions. If someone would run 2:14 in Berlin (faster course than London) with male pacers this year, none of Paula's supporters could act surprised. ;-)

If that'd be a Russian or Kenyan or Ethiopian, well then of course it had to be a doper. A Brit, German, or American? Coe would again (have to) say: nothing to see here.

The rest of the world would chuckle, and know she was a doper.

Different question for those who think Paula might have been clean, and 2:15 is actually a feasible time for a woman: how much would you bet that a Brit, German, or American will break Paula's world record in this decade? We could easily offer you 10 : 1 odds.

Rjm33, also if you are a bit too "heavy" with all your coincidences, and I don't share almost anything of your suspicions, you seem a nice person, maybe too much obsessed by the idea of conspiracies (why don't you try to write some spy story ?), so now that I came back Italy (Yesterday) and I have some time, I honestly answer your questions.

1) Moses Mosop and Florence Kiplagat were not officially married, but lived together (kenyan system "come and stay") from 2007 till the end of 2011.

Moses started his career with me in 2002, and was Always managed by Gianni Demadonna. Florence started in 2006 under coach Joseph Chelimo, collaborator of Patrick Sang, managed by Global Communication of Jos Hermens. When they knew each other and decided to stay together, Moses was already a top runner (bronze medal in WCh 2005 in 10000m, and silver medalò in WCCCh 2007), while Florence had in her palmarèe the silver medal in WJCH 2006 in 5000 only. They had a girl, Aisha, and, when Florence started training again after the motherhood, I became her coach. After the Birth of Aisha (March 2008), Florence decided to follow Moses in his management too, and for 2009 she sent to Gianni Demadonna. In 2009, she won WCCCh in Amman, and bettered the Kenyan Record of 10000m on track (still existing) with 30'11"53, but faced some problem with the manager, so decided to go back Global, and Moses too followed her. In 2011 both were managed by Jos Hermens, but, if Florence never changed, Moses, after they divided in 2012, decided to change going with Zane Branson. When I sent China as head coach of middle and long distances, Florence continued to follow my training because Global had an organization including one my assistant coach, while Moses remained alone, without anybody following him, and started to have confusion in his training. Last January, because I came back Kenya after resigning from China, Moses came to me again, asking to be coached like in the past. At the moment, he doesn't have any manager.

2) Claudio Berardelli was the main factor in the development of the Rosa management during the last 10 years. His contract expired at the end of August 2015, and both the parts (he and the management) decided not to renew. The management wanted, obviously, to clean its name after the cases of doping, and accused Claudio of lack of control on the athletes, but honestly this is some accusation far from the reality, because simply it's not possible to have any control on individuals in the situation of Claudio : he lived in Eldoret, had a Group of track runners very strong living there (Eunice Sum, Janet Jepkosgey, Abel Mutai, Alfred Kirwa Yego, Job Kinyor) working with him every day (mainly in the afternoon), had to go in the camp of Kaptagat every day (where he had the most part of Marathon runners), and the Group of women, including Rita and Prisca Jeptoo, Jemima Jelagat and Agatha Jeruto, was in Kapsabet, where Claudio went two times per week for the most important workouts. In these conditions, it was impossible to control what the athletes can do when are not directly with the coach, and the real problem is that Kapsabet is the center of the Kenyan doping, after Matschiner, banned from any activity with the Federation of Ski (he was caught with a lot of doping during Olympic Winter Games 2006 in Torino) tried to recycle his activity with runners, going Kapsabet in 2007. Matschiner, after some investigation, was declared "not accepted person" in Kenya, and can't go Kenya anymore after that year.

3) About the test Rosa continues to do with the blood of his athletes, this is for controlling the level of Hct and Hb, and, when there is something suspicious, he sents the athlete to the lab of the Italian doctor in Nairobi (I don't want to say his name, for privacy reasons). In this lab, the doctor can control other parameters (for example, reticolocytes), and, if there are more doubts the athlete ccould have taken some doping, he is cancelled by the management, his contract is terminated with immediate effect and AK is informed of it. He is not authorized to put online the data, because, after speaking with some lawyer, had the recommandation not to do it, because not legal without the approval of the athlete himself.

4) The training camps of dr. Rosa, till 2004, were associated with Fila, only after 2004 the full activity went under Nike. The first "Discovery Kenya", created by Rosa, was sponsored by Fila, and the full organization became Nike after 2004. The training camps of Jos Hermens (Global Communication) were not associated with Adidas, but depended on the management only. The equipment for the athletes is mainly Nike, while in the past somebody, such as Haile, was Adidas. The training camps in Kenya and Ethiopia of Gianni Demadonna are sponsored by Adidas, being part of the "Adidas Marathon Development Project", but the most part of track runners with Gianni are Nike (Birech, Silas Kiplagat, Eunice Sum, etc).

5) I find totally ridiculous to think blood doping can give minutes of advantage in Marathon. People speaking of this don't have any experience in coaching top athletes, don't know what proper training is (as volume and intensity), and, if are athletes and really believe in this wide possibility of improvement, simply go to limit themselves.

6) It's not a coincidence that the best athletes are with the best managers.

They need the best organization for their activity, but this is not the type of organization that people obsessed by the idea of doping can think : is organization for Visas, for travelling and for being accepted in the competitions, and, of course, for having better contracts and better appearance fees. Kenya can produce big talents everywhere, and if there is not a "centralized" organization (AK doesn't have) they never can have the opportunity to develop themselves going in high level competitions, but the institutional (every kind of African Championships, with little chances of good technical results). So, there is not any Conspiracy, and not any coincidence, that the best runners are with the best managements : Global (Jos Hermens and Valentijn Trouw), DAP (Gianni Demadonna), Rosa (Federico and father), Michel Boiteng, Pace (Ricky Simms, now less interested in Kenya than in the past), Volare (Gerard) and Golazo (Marc Corstjens and, in Kenya, Barnaba Korir).

7) About Schwazer. He was coached by Sandro Damilano, elder Brother and Coach from the beginning of Maurizio Damilano, Olympic Champion in Moscow 1980 and WCh in Rome 1987 and bronze medal in Olympic 1992 (20 km), and currently chairman of the Walking Committee of IAAF.

Sandro told me never had some athlete showing more committment and more application of Schwazer, till 2010, when he decided to look more at the short distance, tired of all the volume and of all the long training had to do for the long event (50 km). In 2010, Sandro started to complain with Schwazer about his interpretation of training, and Schwazer started to look at Michele Ferrari for some technical advice about a system with less volume of training, and more quality. Sandro decided to quit to coach him, and after two months became National coach of China, producing the Olympic Champion 2012 and continuing to win, in clean way, with Chinese (last year 20 km with women). So, we know very well Schwazer was completely clean (also in his mind) when won Olympics. He was morally subjugated by Russian athletes, who proposed him to change citizenship and to join their Group in Saransk, where doping was at the base of their training. After his ban, Schwazer decided to quit everything, but more than one year ago he felt again the will and the motivation to use hard training, and had in his mind to find a way for redemption. So, he contacted the most known person in Italy working against doping, Sandro Donati (also consultant of WADA), asking to become his coach, with an organization including prof. D'Onofrio (one of the most known hematologist in the World and expert for WADA) for certifying his "redemption road" with tests every week. It seems now Schwazer can walk again fast such as in 2008, if not faster, and this is a fact that can confirm my theory EPO doesn't work, with athletes training atv their max level.... but we can see his result in the World Cup in May, and eventually in Olympics, it's premature to speak of this now.

Renato can you explain how a runner running 29.45 for 10k can improve to 27.30's (world Class for Caucasian distance runners) in a little over a year if drugs don't have a significant effect. This person was supposedly self administering EPO without sophisticated medical backup.

I don't know the case of Chatal Lombard. However, I don't think he trained with the same volume and intensity BEFORE and AFTER doping. This means that his improvement was due to the improvement of his training, and that the reason because he improved his training was, according to him, the assumption of EPO (and maybe something else too).

The question is : Why before taking drugs he was not able to train with the same volume and the same intensity ?

And the answer is : Because he thought not to be able to do this, thinking it was too much hard. BUT HE NEVER TRIED BEFORE.

In 1978, during European Championships in Prague, the first 9 athlete in the final of 10000m ran under 27'41", and were all true European (not yet African naturalized). The pacer for all the race, with very even pace of 2'45" per km, was the Romanian Ilie Floroiu, Second in that race was the Italian Venanzio Ortis, who never used any blood manipulation, with 27'31" (after one week he won 5000m), and the top 9 belonged to 7 different Countries :

1) Martti Vainio (FIN) 27'30"99

2) Venanzio Ortis (ITA) 27'31"48

3) Aleksandr Antipov (URS) 27'31"50

4) Brendan Foster (UK) 27'32"65

5) David Black (UK) 27'36"27

6) Gerard Tebroke (NED) 27'36"64

7) Ilie Floroiu (RUM) 27'40"06

8) Een Sellik (URS/EST) 27'40"61

9) Knut Kvalheim (NOR) 27'41"26

Many of them were not top talented athletes, but the type of training in that period was generally based on very high volume (over 250 km / 155 miles per week) including long intervals (for example, Ortis ran on track, 10 days before the Championships, 6000m in 18'06" + 5000m in 14'37" + 4000m in 11'31" + 3000m in 8'23" + 2000m in 5'26" recovering 4' / 5' in between, for a total of 20 km of tests, that now in Europe are refused by Marathon runners too because too long).

The big difference between athletes of the first 2000 and athletes of 20 years before is the mentality : while Mamede, Lopes, and a lot of Britain, Italian, Spanish and Finnish athletes (plus some from Nederland, Belgium and Norway) used this kind of volume as normal methodology, twenty years later everybody refused the high volume, thinking possible to replace with higher intensity the 50% of the previous volume.

This was a big methodological mistake, that had the effect to dramatically reduce the level of performances in long distances, till the unbelievable result to have, in 2003 in UK (cradle of middle and long distances), one woman (Paula Radcliffe) at the top of the domestic lists for Marathon, with the first men 20" behind !

Are you sure Chatal Lombard had less talent of John Treacy ? I don't know, but surely he was very much weak as mentality, and found the mental strength for training hard only after taking EPO, thinking this substance could increase his ability to recover, and for that reason started to train more.

We had in Italy a similar case with Roberto Barbi : he ran 2:14:42 in Marathon in 1994 (with 1:10:00 + 1:04:42, so his value was already well different), with 5 sessions per week, working in a paper factory with rotating shifts. When 3 years later he had the opportunity to do athletics full time, moving to 13 sessions per week and increasing his mileage from 100 km to 250 km per week, he was able running under 2:10, using EPO during the last two years (2000 and 2001) without big improvement from what was able to run before the drug (2:10:55 in NY).

I think that better knowledge of the athletic history can change the mind of many Young posters of LR, who only know what happened during the last years, and are obsessed by the idea of doping because today this is connected with the fact we live in a "pharmacologic era" where the publicity explains we need every kind of pharmacologic support for the only fact we are alive : supplements, particular diets, pharmacs for recovering, pharmacs for having more energy, pharmacs for sleeping, pharmacs for working, pharmacs for every human activity. I repeat : if in theory it was possible to test in the same way of antidoping ALL people living in US, I'm sure more than 50% could be positive to some illegal drug (according to the sport's rules) because the general and widespread belief is that WITHOUT this kind of drugs it's almost not possible to live.

I'm against this idea, and think nothing can work better than proper training, when we speak about endurance events.

Different story when we speak about muscle strength, since with only training it's not possible to reach the same level of strength.

Fred! Here are some more interesting coincidences:

I think Martin Lel said he had malaria before the 2008 Olympic marathon and said it was a miracle to finish 5th

That said, malaria is so prevalent in East Afroca that I am not sure that it is indicative of a doping cover up. Maybe but I would need to see more.

rjm33 wrote:

Oh my!

Here is a partial list of Kenyan runners who have had bouts of malaria:

1) Cosmos Ndeti

2) Moses Kiptanui

3) Paul Tergat

4) Dennis Kimetto

http://www.kenyarunners.com/pages/167372/index.htm

Keep reading the whole site page down!

...the Italian manager Dr. Gabriele Rosa (who was manager to Moses Tanui and Paul Tergat, and many other famous Kenyan runners both male and female) and EPO use rumors by top Kenyan runners is discussed a lot on this site!.....

Read more:

http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=7177186&page=1#ixzz467CesMdi

I think the introduction of EPO to the sport of cycling by Dr. Conconi, who was publishing studies on serum EPO levels in cross-country skiers in 1988 is very suspicious, as it is the same year that Bordin from Italy won the marathon and Antibo won silver in the 10k. Renato Canova admitted that Antibo did blood transfusions pre 1985, as did Alberto Cova, the gold medal 10k winner in 1984. I personally do not think that the Italians or anyone else stopped doing blood transfusions when they were banned in 1985, because there was no test for detection of transfusions. I suspect that Bordin and Antibo did blood transfusions and/or EPO...they are both types of cheating by blood manipulation...so I do not care which method someone uses to cheat. Renato Canova with his friend Luciano Gigliotti were responsible for the Italian marathoners from 1986.

Luciano Gigliotti was coach to Bordin and 2004 marathon gold medalist Stefano Baldini...who beat Paul Tergat among many other great, Kenyan and Ethiopian runners born, living, and training at altitude back in 2004.

Italians had a period of dominance in the late 1980s and early 1990s in not just marathon running... but also cross-country skiing...a golden era. Gianni Polli and another Italian won the NYC marathon. Bordin won Boston in 1990.

Renato Canova has also stated that he has known Rita Jeptoo for many years...and he has also known coach Claudio Berardelli for many years.

Claudio Berardelli was the coach at one of the 5 training camps run by Frederico Rosa...and finally had his contract terminated by Rosa when Berardelli had 3 runners with doping positives: 2:18 marathoner Rita Jeptoo, 58 min 1/2 Mar Matthew Kisorio (anabolic steroid nandrolone positive), and Agatha Jeruto(anabolic steroid norandrosterone positive).

Please read the article I posted with the interview of Frederico Rosa...and then ask yourself if he seems a little "suspicious". Rosa when asked about whether other runners of his had ever had doping positives... said no...but he left out that at the 2003 WC cross country champs...his runner Pamela Chepchumba...tested positive for EPO. For me personally, I find it suspicious that he forgot mentioning Pamela Chepchumba in 2003.

I think the fact that Dr. Gabriele Rosa came to Kenya in 1991...right about the time that I personally believe EPO entered the sport of track and road running in a more widespread way around 1991 to 1992 (for example...Dieter Baumann 1992 5k gold, Fermin Cacho 1500m gold, Khalid Skah from Morocco 10k gold, Qu Junxia 1500m bronze, Boulmerka from Algeria 1500m gold, Romanova 3k gold, Valentina Yegorova marathon gold) and then of course all the Chinese records which were set in 1993, with Wang Junxia at 3k and 10k world records still standing today 23 years later...

Renato Canova has also stated that he believes Wang Junxia was probably just a great, natural talent who did not take EPO, even though he stated that the other Chinese women probably did take EPO. Wang Junxia ran faster times in 1 week that ALL Kenyan and ALL Ethiopian top tier runners born, living, and training at altitude and ALL doping runners from all countries in the world in the last 23 years . Paula Radcliffe at 2:15 would also be 3 minutes faster than ALL Kenyans, ALL Ethiopians, and ALL doping runners from all countries over the last 13 years...which would mean Renato's theory about Kenyan runners at altitude being the best natural talents in the world... is incorrect.

Renato Canova has also stated that EPO does not improve performance in top tier Kenyan or Ethiopian runners born, living, and doing high-level training at altitude...and his arguments do not agree with the findings of the scientific literature...which he states are all wrong...and do not apply to this specific group of people. I personally do not agree with these statements by Renato Canova.

I and many other people at LRC do not agree with many, many statements that have been made by Renato Canova at this site over the years.

One more conspiracy point...Can you imagine the incredible ADVANTAGE.. if a group of athletes.. from perhaps just one or two countries....had access to EPO before the rest of the sporting world did?

.... and how that could lead to a lot of competitive success in many endurance sports...but for a limited time period...until the rest of the world discovered the secret...and then the competitive advantage would be gone forever!

1) Martti Vainio (FIN) 27'30"99

was doped

Lombard said he actually reduced his mileage when he had the huge improvement and claimed to be only running 50-60 mpw. He claimed his improvement was down to exercises.

How many people on the circuit are going exactly what he did with better medical back up and knowledge of the testing procedure? After all Lombard took about 18 months to get caught, and not by the testing! He got caught because customs became suspicious about the volume of parcels he had coming in!

Wikipedia:

". However, Vainio's A-sample was tested positive for anabolic steroids, and the head coach of the Finnish Athletics Federation, Antti Lanamäki, delegated Timo Vuorimaa, the head coach of long-distance runners, to inform Vainio about the test result. Vuorimaa informed Vainio only by mentioning that there was something strange in his test sample, not providing detailed information about the substance. Vainio believed that he had only been using testosterone and not anabolic steroids at all. Therefore, his only action was to give up drug use a little bit earlier prior to the anticipated tests.[2]

Vainio's track season was really strong. In June 1984, he competed five times in 5000 metres, the weakest result being 13:30.40, and once in 10,000 metres with his all-time second best result 27:41.75. At the Bislett Games on 28 June, he broke Lasse Virén's Finnish record in 5000 metres and finished second after Fernando Mamede[3] with the result 13:16.02. In July, he competed only three times; first two times in the Finnish Championships on July 6–8 in Kajaani, where he took the gold medals after solo runs in both 5000 metres (13:24.99) and 10,000 metres (28:06.85), and the third time when improving his 3000 metres record to 7:44.42 in Varkaus on 12 July. According to a Vainio interview in 2004, he took his next injection after the Rotterdam Marathon around 10 July, and was sure that this time period would be long enough to allow metabolism to take its effect and ensure a negative test at the Olympics.[2]"

Renato, you are saying or inferring that when these athletes did dope, they were getting a placebo effect.

Was that what happened with Rashid Ramzi? It's all just a placebo effect when you pull away at the end of a race.

Yeah, when you destroy people after using CERA it's just placebo mind over matter - not.

"Please read the article I posted with the interview of Frederico Rosa...and then ask yourself if he seems a little "suspicious". Rosa when asked about whether other runners of his had ever had doping positives... said no...but he left out that at the 2003 WC cross country champs...his runner Pamela Chepchumba...tested positive for EPO. For me personally, I find it suspicious that he forgot mentioning Pamela Chepchumba in 2003"

Why that's just one of those coincidences, RJM.

Autologous! Here is my updated all time list of sub-2:04 marathoners and managers from the Netherlands:

1) Dennis Kimetto-2:02:57, 2:03:45, managed by Gerard Van De Veen

2) Emmanuel Mutai-2:03:13, 2:03:52, managed by Michel Boeting

3) Wison Kipsang-2:03:23, 2:03:42, managed by Gerard Van De Veen

4) Haile Gebrselassie-2:03:59, managed by Jos Hermens

5) Geoffrey Mutai-2:03:02, managed by Gerard Van De Veen

6) Moses Mosop-2:03:06, managed by Jos Hermens at the time

7) Eliud Kipchoge-2:04:00 w/insoles loose!, managed by Jos Hermens

So that is 10 2:04:00 or faster marathons on the all time list all being run by runners with managers from the Netherlands!

just another coincidence

I was really telling the truth when I said last week that I literally ran into the national team from the Netherlands while running last week. One of their runners told me that their hemoglobin levels typically increase by 10%, 12% or more in only 4 weeks of altitude training... because they are all super-responders to altitude!

My response was: "I bet you are. That does not really surprise me at all."

Now that REALLY was an amazing coincidence for me!

WOW!

If you were one of those amazing super responders, and you went to 51, would you have to drop down to 5000 feet because of your amazing super respondedness?

Stefan Matschiner was also manager of doper Adrienne Herzog of the Netherlands. Just another coincidence.

Here is a partial list of Kenyan runners who have had bouts of malaria:

1) Cosmos Ndeti

2) Moses Kiptanui

3) Paul Tergat

4) Dennis Kimetto

I think Martin Lel said he had malaria before the 2008 Olympic marathon and said it was a miracle to finish 5th.

Rita Jeptoo and Matthew Kisorio were both coached by Claudio Berardelli and both were managed by Frederico Rosa. Both were also banned for doping.

Both Rita Jeptoo and Matthew Kisorio have also stated that they have been "treated for malaria".

Hey Fred...How do you like my conspiracy story now?