Down goes the Dow

agip,

My view is QE fueled the fracking boom "hey oil can't go down." Hot money chasing a return. I am sure you remember that Wall Street told us that Oil and Gas Master Limited Partnerships "were like toll roads and less influenced by energy prices." The Alerian Master Limited Partnership ETF is still down 33% from its high.

Under the same theme, with $4.4 Trillion on the Fed balance sheet, continues to be rolled over and influence yield seeking behavior. Hot money, moves on to other assets, inflating existing bubbles in stocks, bonds, housing and commercial real estate. Investors buying stocks for the yield "hey the Fed has your back." Interestingly, XLU and VNQ are well off their July 2016 highs when the 10 Year was at 1.35%. Corporations borrowing funds, leveraging their balance sheet, to fund stock buybacks and dividends provide support for ETFs like DVY.

Now the belief is growth will be faster than the negative effects of a shrinking Fed balance sheet and rising rates. Its all just wishful thinking and not supported by facts. So I fully expect that 18% rise in the S&P 500 to be erased in short order.

Igy

agip,

Doing better thanks. I ran 7 miles on the AlterG yesterday at 85% and up to 6:40 pace. Last week same day was limited to six miles 7:30 pace. I have been spin biking on the off days. Went downhill skiing Saturday and it was fine. So the Achilles is about 90%. I think I jumped on it before it became a more serious issue.

How is your running? How did the indoor season go? What is up next race wise?

Igy

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

agip,

Doing better thanks. I ran 7 miles on the AlterG yesterday at 85% and up to 6:40 pace. Last week same day was limited to six miles 7:30 pace. I have been spin biking on the off days. Went downhill skiing Saturday and it was fine. So the Achilles is about 90%. I think I jumped on it before it became a more serious issue.

How is your running? How did the indoor season go? What is up next race wise?

Igy

sounds good - keep it up

I lost my entire indoor season - i was sick, I was travelling, work got very busy. So I lost a lot of speed in January. The last two weeks have been better tho and I'm getting some speed back. I'll go straight to roads season now - I'll try to race 5-6 times in March and April.

I'm trying an experiment - fewer miles but more intensity. My base is solid - I mean I've been running 30 years. And I've read that when you get to age 50 intensity is needed. So I cut my mileage by 10-15%, I'm doing shorter intervals but at higher effort levels. more hills too. I like experimenting.

agip,

I believe that is the right approach. Lifetime running volume is like putting savings in the bank. I think quite a bit of strength can be gained from various tempo training modes. I think tempo runs of 5 x 1,000m / 1:00 to 2:00 rest or any variation are great strength builder. I plan to race a 5 milers mid-March, and adjust my schedule from there. Still pointing toward All-American standard for my age for 1,500 and 5,000. Have you seen the new USATF All-American standards? The Gold is very tough, and not likely I can reach.

Igy

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

agip,

I believe that is the right approach. Lifetime running volume is like putting savings in the bank. I think quite a bit of strength can be gained from various tempo training modes. I think tempo runs of 5 x 1,000m / 1:00 to 2:00 rest or any variation are great strength builder. I plan to race a 5 milers mid-March, and adjust my schedule from there. Still pointing toward All-American standard for my age for 1,500 and 5,000. Have you seen the new USATF All-American standards? The Gold is very tough, and not likely I can reach.

Igy

just looked at the standards - the gold is tough indeed. I have the silver in the 5000, which is my best event. I ran 17:16 on the track last year.

45-49 Standards:

Silver: 17:34

Gold 16:31.

I turn 50 in 8 months - I suppose I have a shot at the gold standard then - 17:11. Good outside goal to reach for. Thanks for pointing them out.

Fun for me because I was never much of a runner in my prime years - in HS I ran 10 flat for 2 miles and didn't run in college. So now to be up in the higher levels is very rewarding to me. Now I'm hanging with those guys who ran 4:15 in HS and the like. My real running talent is preserving what I have.

agip,

That's cool. Very good masters times. I ran 4:23 and 9:26 in high school but I was running twice a day with some of the workouts with Mihaly Igloi . So training pretty hard at a young age. You probably have more talent than you think.

My saving grace is that during my 19 years of coaching and first six years as an advisor I just jogged. Had a few occasional races. So my body has held up well compared to some of my peers.

Igy

Ha! Got you agip. I'm gold in 2 events!

BUT that doesn't mean a hill of beans...I just blew up my left knee, don't know if it's MCL strain or cartilage problem...swollen for 4 days, but getting better each morning. Still limping.

I hyper-extended my right knee horsing around with some kids on some ice, so I decided to hit the mill to tighten it up, because it felt like it was kicking out.

So I get on, and after 5 minutes it felt good...so good that I decided to run for another hour. I did, between 8-9 mph the whole way...and boy, was that stupid.

I was probably compensating for my right knee with some wonky action with my left knee. I felt so good, though, that I did a 25 mile bike ride afterwards, so who knows what the actual problem is, and what caused it.

I agree with you on intensity. I don't often do workouts that long, and it took a swollen and sore left knee to remind me why.

Stay vigilant, my friends. Injury sucks.

************************************************************

DJIA and DXY both up, Dow touching 20,500 intraday, and still near it.

Seriously Igy, you need to forget about the yield assumption, it doesn't tell the whole story and when considered in isolation, paints an inaccurate picture. There are many quicker and better ways to make money than in the markets, and people have done just that. It's not about yield, it's about wealth distribution and preservation.

You are very resistant to this understanding, to your detriment. You must understand that ANY yield is a bonus to people looking for a safe haven...in many other asset classes, they PAY to have a safe haven.

And no, don't worry, I have dry powder...but I'm increasingly less confident that there will be any significant dip. Look at the narrowing S&P trading range.

nice work on the running - sorry to hear about the injuries. Hope it's relatively nothing.

hey sorry about yesterday - I apologize for being out of line - I was unnecessarily rude. No excuses.

"You are very resistant to this understanding, to your detriment."

Maserati,

Perhaps, but you will only be right if this time is different. I will stick with my view, since that is my life experience. I have never believed in short cuts or tricks, so why start now? I think in one of your posts you described me "as salt of the earth type," or something to that effect. Yes, I think that is true.

I really won't get much satisfaction from a collapse. I am really not that type of a person. But I will question why people are so blind to what on the surface to me is so easy to see.

In regards to masters running, I had the top 5,000 meters track time for my master age group over a decade ago. That time would miss the new Gold standard today under the new USATF Guidelines by about 10 seconds. So I am impressed as well as amazed at those the can reach the Gold standard. But like my investment philosophy I did more with sticking to fundamentals than talent.

Igy

lol agip, I'm such a warhorse that I didn't even notice.

BTW a friend of mine just retired from a major FX desk. Upon his retirement, he was replaced by an algo. Unbelievably, he rode things out until over 60 yrs old. He spent the last year working with the programmers to optimize the program that has now taken over his role. The programmer is getting paid essentially nothing, compared to what the traders were making.

Man, I wish I could run right now, the weather is getting really nice. I don't do drugs and won't do surgery unless it's a matter of life or death, so I will ride this out. I might be rehabbing for 3 months, who knows!

Since I'm a fossil like you, I don't much care, as far as athletic performance goes. I will probably hop in the pool with my wife! Life is good.

Maserati and agip,

"BTW a friend of mine just retired from a major FX desk. Upon his retirement, he was replaced by an algo. Unbelievably, he rode things out until over 60 yrs old."

I refuse to be replaced by a Robo Advisor. I plan to stick around for the real fun.

Igy

Igy even though I have many years to go before I reach your seasoned age, I may likely hang it up before then. When it comes to athletics, I have much more heart than brains, and it doesn't serve me well, although I do have a great time while I'm healthy.

This S&P bull market is the 2nd longest on record, at 2899 days, and is now the 3rd strongest in history, thanks to this recent rally, at around 245%

But consider this: the #1 in both categories was 1987-2000, which went almost 4500 days, and 582%.

If you want to restrict yourself to precedent, there is precedent for the belief that that this rally could continue for more than 4 more years, and the gains could more than double.

Yes I know about the insane P/E's back then, the companies with zero earnings, the IPO fever, etc., but the point is that there is precedent for a rise that will continue for a long time, without any 20% drop.

Back then, there was a driver: dot-com. There is today again a driver, but the political conditions are interesting.

Maybe there will be turmoil during Trump, then near the end of his term if a Dem takes over, we will see another insane bull market like 87-00.

I have yet to hear any good explanation of the mechanics of a crash, apart from infrastructure/electricity failure/war. Currency war? Not real, not so great, malleable. Trade war? US citizens and businesses are in no position to absorb punches, won't happen.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Maserati and agip,

"BTW a friend of mine just retired from a major FX desk. Upon his retirement, he was replaced by an algo. Unbelievably, he rode things out until over 60 yrs old."

I refuse to be replaced by a Robo Advisor. I plan to stick around for the real fun.

Igy

Yeah but you're a small shop. This guy was with a major bank, which is a life that can really grind you down. At 62, I consider him an old man. A rich old man, but old nonetheless. We'll see if he can recover, he used to be decent at sports. I doubt it.

I reiterate my belief that the markets are rigged, and that there are many who know this, and who are taking advantage of it, and that many of them are from personal situations that one would not immediately consider favorable to US interests. Even central banks buy and hold.

So Igy, this is an interesting discussion we have been having, particularly because you haven't been convinced.

So I will try another angle, and begin by way of asking you a question:

If you're a gov that has insanely massive liabilities going forward, and who has already counted monies that you will get in the future if the markets remain stable, would you not rig the market, IF the market was "riggable" in your favor?

Seriously.

The "free market" is just a concept, that has some philosophical support, but it is by no means the only concept that has ever been employed. The market in bonds, securities, etc. is not now truly "free", and never was...but when it is a gov that is doing the tinkering, it is no longer "rigging", it is "managing".

So I ask you, if you were the gov in its current position, and you could manage the markets to your benefit and therefore to the benefit of the people, would you not do it?

This has become a circle jerk. Any chance you guys could get a room?

Maserati,

I certainly believe that it is possible. Especially when you consider the intrigue behind the Flynn resignation. I just believe that at some point the distortions overwhelm even the best laid plans, or conspiracy theories for that matter. Too many moving parts.

In regards to Bull Market running from mid-80s thru 2000, I believe there were some key differences, among them: 1) interest rate decline from record high, 2) technology, 3) demographics favoring growth, and 4) low debt levels. On every one of those scores the environment today is a mirror image of that time.

In 1979 we bought our first house financed at 11.9% interest. Two years later we purchase a new car financed at 17.9% interest. We had one credit card Sears. Many retailers would do 90 days same as cash. In 1982 I wanted to buy a home stereo from WalMart and took out a short term loan from a bank. Today, all the economic growth is financed through debt while most Americans don't have two nickels to rub together.

Hey, AIG announces a $2.72 a share loss, then announces a $3.5 Billion stock buyback plan. Maybe you are right we are just operating at a higher level of insanity. Several years ago I had a bad Sears experience, mailed my shredded credit card to CEO Eddie Lampert. Rationality does return to business at some point.

Igy

Moore Off wrote:

This has become a circle jerk. Any chance you guys could get a room?

Add some more thoughtful commensurate like "straw man argument" or "cherry picking." Perfect for someone that can't formulate an intelligent post.

Oh, the irony!

There aren't that many moving parts. All one need control is the mechanics of exchange, which is all now automated for convenience of control. One tiny example is spoofing and the attempts to control it by threat of sanction.

And regardless of whether or not the gov is successful, that's not really the point--the point is that they try...they do intervene, they do tinker. And for the past trading period, it looks as though they have been mightily successful.

Also, in your 2nd paragraph, aren't you using the argument that "this time it is different"? Can't have it both ways, Igy. Wasn't it you who said in response to me that one can always come up with some sort of flim flam evidence that this time it is different, when in actuality history is just repeating itself?

And if you really want to argue that this time it is different and that the duration of 87-00 will not be repeated, I could easily say that you're right, but that your conditions are all wrong--the essential difference is that this time there are structural controls, whereas they were absent in 87-00...THAT is the essential difference.

This bull market could ultimately go on even longer than it did in 87-00.