shill,
My experience few will be patient once we head south, and this time is not different. Why am I so sure? Pretty simple, stocks are investments, it is in the math. At these levels the only return comes from trading, or a ten year holding period and collect the dividend.
Igy
shill,
Here is the shrink graphically, on EPS:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-25/
That is what matters.
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:shill,
(1) My experience few will be patient once we head south, and this time is not different.
(2) Why am I so sure? Pretty simple, stocks are investments, it is in the math. At these levels the only return comes from trading, or a ten year holding period and collect the dividend.
Igy
(1) I agree a lot of people will lack patience. Personally, I rode out both those dips without tinkering with my portfolio. I have already admitted the sphincter was puckered tho... :-)
(2) Well, you said the same thing two years ago, and we are up > 8% since then (in spite of the two big dips along the way), and right now the markets seem to be hyper-enthusiastic about your new President Buonaparte... I feel like there's a pretty good chance your doom and gloom scenario will come true when we all wake up and realize what you all have done, and then we might face a lot of financial (and other) pain. But in the shorter term, I feel like you are going to be fighting off snide criticism of your pessimism for another 6-18 months.
My global warming predictions have been kinda "meh," but I DID call your election result, grudgingly, to friends and family for over a year. I'm an oracle! :-)
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
my first post on DGTD, 3/2/2015, so a little less than two years ago.
Igy
FALSE
"But in the shorter term, I feel like you are going to be fighting off snide criticism of your pessimism for another 6-18 months."
Shill,
Perhaps, that's ok. I realize that if it lasts that long the reversion to the mean will be that much greater. Simple factual concept: The higher the buy in price the lower the return.
In regards to politics and the election, if Hillary would have won I think the result would have been similar. "Well, Bill Clinton was good for business and the markets." So, largely this is institutionally driven. Not individuals managing their online accounts.
Where do you reside overseas?
Igy
Trump wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:my first post on DGTD, 3/2/2015, so a little less than two years ago.
Igy
FALSE
OK, post it or shut-up.
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:(1) In regards to politics and the election, if Hillary would have won I think the result would have been similar. "Well, Bill Clinton was good for business and the markets." So, largely this is institutionally driven. Not individuals managing their online accounts.
(2) Where do you reside overseas?
Igy
(1) Maybe, but I don't think so. There's something magical about this lunatic you've elected. I think the world (and markets) would have responded with a shrug had Hilary been elected.
(2) I'd rather not say, some people really seem to dislike my shill persona. I don't think I said "overseas" though. Lots of the world, including where I live, isn't (I don't think) considered overseas from the US. When I post under my real first name, plenty (meaning at least a handful) of people on here know who I am. Which is nobody of any consequence.
Shill,
1) OK. My point is the markets have been driven more by institutional algorithmic trading than fundamentals. That should give no one comfort.
2) Understood.
In conclusion I will say, the markets are certainly interesting to watch at extremes. Fear and greed are mirror image emotions. Advisors get the most calls at extremes, the fear of losing or the fear of missing out. Eight years ago, January 2009, the S&P 500 closed at 825. The last thing investors wanted was a stock. By March of that year we hit 666, taking the index back to 1996 levels. And today, you can't own enough stock, markets never been higher, all in the face of a not so good environment on many levels. Some people never learn.
Igy
the shill wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:Perhaps.S&P 500
5/22/2015 2,134
8/28/2015 1,867 -12.51%
2/12/2016 1,810 -15.18%
Not ancient history either.
Igy
My bad... I did some lazy math.
Not sure the average investor needs worry about those kind of fluctuations? The sphincter puckers when they happen, but the patient investor has nothing to fear from blips like that. Bigger blips, and sustained declines, sure...
Yet the lucky/smart investor who can avoid 40% drops like in 2008-09 is way ahead of the game.
Trump wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:my first post on DGTD, 3/2/2015, so a little less than two years ago.
Igy
FALSE
Very Trump like -- or mainstream media. Positive assertion with zero documentation.
Is that you Detector Guy?
Just Stopping By wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:Just,
Funny that you checked in. Well my first post to this thread was 3/2/2015, that day the Dow closed at 18,288. The high in the Dow thus far today is that same 18,288. So I may have not changed much and so has the Dow. Funnily enough earnings have continued to decline throughout that period, but posters like you and Hellooooo just don't get it.
I would advise you to check in at 10,000 first.
Igy
OK, I had a quick look. My bad.
Igy:
1) "posters like you and Hellooooo just don't get it."
How do you have any idea what I do and what I do not get? I said absolutely nothing about the market, earnings... And yet you conclude that "I don't get it"?!? You're a glowing mix of ignorance and arrogance personified!
Oh, I almost forgot - same old Igy.
2) It's a bit late for me to check in at 10,000 wouldn't you say? Since we are already well above 14,000 posts. Reading comprehension problems?
Oh wait - same old Igy
Now, I'm really gonna check back out until you folks approach 20,000. Had my quick Igy fix.
Cheers. :-)
Couldn't help it. Sorry. Looks like 10,000 didn't happen before 20,000.
Igy - do you ever get it right?
Now, off 'til you folks get to the 20,000 that I mentioned earlier (the one where Igy showed off his amazing reading comprehension skills).
Only 3,000 (and change) posts to go! Go get 'em, Igy!
Detector Dude,
My first post was as stated, and not as you fantasize. November 4, 2016, days before the election, the Dow closed at 17,930. Not ancient history. By all means check in at Dow 10,000, or believe as you do that fundamentals don't matter.
Igy
Shill,
Here you go, supports your view: "What If Hillary Won."
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-25/what-if-hillary-had-won
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Detector Dude,
My first post was as stated, and not as you fantasize. November 4, 2016, days before the election, the Dow closed at 17,930. Not ancient history. By all means check in at Dow 10,000, or believe as you do that fundamentals don't matter.
Igy
"Detector Dude"? WTF?
Well, anyway, I will check in at 20,000 posts.
Just or whomever you are. I will check in with you when I can put it in your face.
Igy
Markets were dropping going into the election while the media was telling us that djt had no chance of winning. Look at the trend starting in Aug/sep when it began to look like djt had blown any chance of winning and look at the acceleration in the days before the election. Spin it all you want, but it's clear investors weren't too crazy about a Hillary presidency.
Trimmed,
Perhaps you are correct, but the market went down on Comey's letter to Congress and rose the Monday and Tuesdy into the election.
What I find interest in the last 20 years the markets have risen on the basis of globalism. If one is to believe Trump policies will be enacted then this regime has ended. Therefore, why would one not think we are in for big disruptive changes?
Igy
The market goes up. The market goes down. Repeat.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Trimmed,
Perhaps you are correct, but the market went down on Comey's letter to Congress and rose the Monday and Tuesdy into the election.
What I find interest in the last 20 years the markets have risen on the basis of globalism. If one is to believe Trump policies will be enacted then this regime has ended. Therefore, why would one not think we are in for big disruptive changes?
Igy
We can come up with plenty of reasons why investors should have loved Hillary and hated trump, but the markets and the 10% trump run-up following the Hillary slump show just how strongly investors have celebrated trump's election.