Down goes the Dow

Maserati,

Gold is up over 4% so far this year. Still wonder about the dollar and global growth impact on oil.

Igy

Got in oil recently during a small dip, got in gold just after the new year. I have some miners and even they are up. When long, though, initial activity means nothing.

Impending trade policies are confused and somewhat simplistic. Yes the US carries a big stick and our consumer demand drives the world economy, but we are not an island.

I'm not only looking at real inflation, I'm also looking at monetary policy and capital flows. As of tomorrow I will also be short the USD by being long certain other currencies, even though some are claiming that the USD will continue to rise as much as 20% in the near term.

Ideas had by the incoming administration need, above all, to be tested. Even though they might work to some extent, I don't have any faith in the gov't being able to maintain any sort of advantage. I learned long ago in business that the way you make real money is to find a way to get everyone to make money. While that is and is not possible in different contexts, it should be the stated aim, and the actual goal, until such time as things get adversarial. I think that Trump has gone adversarial too soon. The guy has zero experience in the environment in which he finds himself, and is still playing his old game, which has a lower variety of pieces, with a lower variety of moves.

It is my belief that he has no understanding of ideologues, or those who are prepared to sacrifice their pragmatic interest in favor of ideological victory. He doesn't understand that if they are only at 50% relative to the USA's 100%, they will willingly trade a 50% hit with the USA, because that will mean only an absolute 25% hit to themselves, but a 50% hit to the USA.

Anyway, there will be turmoil during the "testing period", and a rocky road. Winners and losers will be more distinct, and there will be a greater gap between the two, IMHO

Face the fax wrote:

You seem paranoid. Can you give us some examples of someone following you around with different handles?

I think you are the only one.

Don't know why you get to Iggy. You are an ineffectual illiterate.

I think this is exactly right - Trump has an extremely limited world view. He thinks money is the only currency people care about...I think he will get the world in a huge amount of trouble when he finds out humiliation and pride count for far more than dollars at times.

I'm building in gold but not oil. I think as the Eu weakens and maybe goes away gold will be a recipient of funds. Certainly political instability shoudl support gold.

Oil seems to me in a period of structural weakness. Technology has made it easier to find and the way the world is going is restricting demand. If OPEC can artificially restrict production that might support oil. But rememeber trump is planning to open public lands to drilling. I suspect they will find oil.

And disagree on shorting the dollar...What are you going to buy? Certainly not chinese currency. Not UK currency. An optimist may buy Euros. Dollars seem the safe have x3 right now.

Maserati and agip,

My son gifted the Trump's "Art of the Deal" for Christmas. Anyone who read the book would have gained insight to his campaign strategy or some of his recent comments regarding trade. Interestingly the book is littered with the words "disaster" and "huge."

Igy

Face the fax wrote:

Yo Yo Pa wrote:

I think you are the only one.

Don't know why you get to Iggy. You are an ineffectual illiterate.

I obviously get to you, too.

Not sure how you make that leap in logic but what is obvious is your inability to construct a proper sentence.

Poor Detector. Wants to play with the big boys.

LMAO Igy.

agip CAD, CHF, AUD for instance. I put together a basket that is strategic for me personally, as I need hedges in those currencies. I wouldn't necessarily recommend it for somebody in a different position.

agip I heard that if you subtract out cars at 0% financing, and gasoline, that retail sales over the holidays were flat, btw.

Trump talks about everything as though he views the world entirely through the lens of simplistic profit and loss, as though a balance sheet is something sacred. Make no mistake it is my opinion that the outgoing administration was entirely incompetent...entirely...but that doesn't mean that it can't get worse.

Trump reminds me of a football coach, or a wrestling coach--all about being combative, all about victory, lots of bluster, and a total befuddlement and lack of understanding when it doesn't go their way. Sure they might be able to motivate a room full of sycophantic meatheads, but get them outside that environment, and they're a joke. As soon as they are in a different game, they get laughed out of the room.

Yes the US consumer market is incredibly important to many companies around the world. It is well-known that Americans spend a lot of money, in fact more than they have, through financing purchases. Financing has kept the consumer economy afloat, but people are increasingly tapped-out, even with insanely low financing rates. Trump et al have to be really careful, because there are US products with not much international distribution, that depend on that US consumer.

Likewise, US products that do get international play often do so only by the grace of foreign governments permitting them to operate, as well as through enforcing laws like intellectual property protection. Things can get nationalized awfully quickly, just by a lack of enforcement, gravely affecting certain important US concerns.

The Republicans seems to understand this issue with the US consumers a bit, inasmuch as they are looking to pad private spending with government spending by running up the deficit to insane levels, to pick up the potential slack in growth of private demand.

The idea that the R's have that they can operate gov't more efficiently than did the D's, and that their infrastructure spending will therefore yield more gains than did the D's, maybe even to the point of breaking even, represents great hubris and ignorance. NOBODY can operate the machine more efficiently than can anybody else, except for a tyrant who changes the machinery to operate through brutality. History has shown that can work for a time...but short of that, we aren't going to see any great gains in national efficiency through public spending, no matter who it is who spends the money.

The outgoing regime was corrupt and incompetent, and embodied Fascistic tendencies. To me, it looks like Trump intends to continue this trend, but that he will try to substitute his own brownshirts for the previous ones. He will only continue the general movement started by the last administration, in that nothing he does will be likely to result in any structural change--the game will remain the same, only with another team up to bat.

Whatever happens, it will probably mean swings, of which I hope to stay clear unless they are giant market swings of which I can take advantage. I suggested last year that the DJIA would hover below 20k for a while, and in that short-term prediction I was right. I also said that if I had bought in, that I would sell if it stayed below 20k into 2017 for any period of time, and if I had been in, and if it made sense from a tax perspective, I would have already sold.

I also said that I might buy in if it goes above 20k and shows a bit of stability there, and I stand by that. Haven't bought in yet.

It will be a strange, uneasy year. I'm half thinking about taking my gains for the year, which amount to maybe 4-5% through only luck of timing, and just waiting to see if any good opportunities arise later in the year. Seriously.

"it looks like Trump intends to continue this trend, but that he will try to substitute his own brownshirts"

...but will the trains run on time.....?

Maserati,

In the build-up to one of Trump's Atlantic City casino purchases he decried the moralizing against gambling when in his eyes "Wall Street was legalized gambling."

Igy

we should all (esp Igy) note that the in the barrons roundtable there was very little optimism - almost everyone predicted 3-7% returns for stocks, We're already up 1.7% or so.

Face the fax wrote:

Yo Yo Pa wrote:

Not sure how you make that leap in logic but what is obvious is your inability to construct a proper sentence.

Poor Detector. Wants to play with the big boys.

Thanks for proving my point. I expect you will continue to do so.

Really? Looks like you have just given up even trying. Do yourself one better and don't respond.

agip,

Of course 3-7% far too optimistic for me.

Did you race? I am on injured reserve. Pushed a little too much previous weeks. So back to square one or two.

Igy

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

agip,

Of course 3-7% far too optimistic for me.

Did you race? I am on injured reserve. Pushed a little too much previous weeks. So back to square one or two.

Igy

Sorry to hear you are hurt - things were going well for you there. Hope it's nothing serious.

same story for me but not as bad - I peaked in late december and it has been a downhill slope for me since. I traveled one week, and I just recovered from a 5 day rough illness. So no races...I'm not back to square one but am pushed back a couple weeks. I'm hoping to do a road race first sunday in Feb.

I really wish I had raced during those peak weeks...I felt like I was in lifetime fitness. Well that's one reason we do sports - to learn to deal with setbacks.

agip,

I was looking forward to hearing a good result from you. Nothing serious on my end, but enough to tell me I need to back-off and take care of it. Basically outside left ankle. Stride was getting better and I think the higher speeds required a little more of an adjustment period than I was giving. I am shooting for a 5k road race mid-March now.

Igy

Yo Yo Pa wrote:

Face the fax wrote:

Thanks for proving my point. I expect you will continue to do so.

Really? Looks like you have just given up even trying. Do yourself one better and don't respond.

So predictable.

CPI, headline and core, now over 2%

I think that's a positive for stocks, but not bonds of course.

Industrial production also positive today

lol agip, remember when I suggested that your fitness and the markets are in synch, and that you should have done lots of racing during those peak weeks?

agip, the financial indicator species.