2024 California HS XC CIF

Is it possible Cam Gregg or Trey Wright of CCS can crack the top 10 for division 3? They have been progressing throughout the season from high to low 15s and Trey Wright even broke 15 before.

Part of me wonders if you guys are underestimating Aydon Stefanopoulos. He’s low on these predictions. I mean, he literally WON state last year. It might be hard for him to beat Griffin Kushen, but I still think he can qualify for NXN. What do you guys think?

He raced at sections. He was their 5th man that day. If you see this video, he is up with the leaders at the beginning

it's crazy how D1 is the least competitive division

You are correct. Crystal Springs results are not being calculated correctly by the Tully Speed Ratings algorithm.

However, am willing to give Tully some grace here, since its only been in recent years that a result here or there from the course has shown to be nationally prominent. Then suddenly, this fall, we have 6 or 7 guys running times garnering national calibre TSRs with four of them breaking a 51-year-old course record.

This lack of national calibre data over the years, along with Crystal racing more comparably to a mountain trail course rather than a xc course -- and coupled with its unique 2.95 mile distance -- resulted in the lower-than-expected TSRs when viewing the national boys list.

The clincher occurred several posts back on this thread when someone from Tully, or someone who uses TSRs, mentioned that Ben Crane/NXR Midwest winner projected out to a 14:0x time on Crystal using the algorithm. When it was politely pointed out that the all-time course record is 14:14 set by then-collegian Matt Giusto -- a time well beyond the capabilities of any US HS boy, then or now -- the poster agreed that something was amiss and would reevaluate following the CA State meet.

At this point, no big deal, since Woodward Park data has been analyzed for years. That national list will be dramatically reordered after Saturday.

And, presumably, the TSR algorithm will be upgraded so that future national-calibre results from Crystal Springs will be more accurately translated.

Kushen & Holman soundly beat him at Clovis last month while Daillak easily won his Clovis Varsity Blue race in a time which would have put him right behind Stefanopoulos.

Div II Boys looks like the race of the meet on Saturday.

Weather has cleared up in Fresno so expect the course to have dried up by then. Temps around 50 deg @ race time with virtually zero wind.

Kushen ran 14:43 for 2nd place @ Clovis Invite.

So, expecting a 14:30s winning time, maybe even under.

With my pick being Trey Caldwell FTW.

Aydon could easily run faster than his 14:52 from Clovis . . . and still place only 5th or 6th and not qualify for NXN.

Still, there is Foot Locker West Regionals to fall back on if that does happen.

I don't like his chances (I have him just outside NXN qualifying) but i'll say this: he ALWAYS delivers when the lights are brightest.

Maybe it’s just bias, but considering how competitive D1 is rn (tho Beckman and Great Oak are in D1), I don’t think the fastest team is going to be from the D1 race. If anything, Jesuit will be 1 in the merge. Considering they’re quite literally in the most competitive division this year.

I actually did go to Oakdale, and I wouldn't be surprised if it happened. I did some quick (and probably inaccurate math), but we calculated that our top 5 drops an average of 33ish seconds from clovis/roughrider (depending on which we do) to state for the past 3 years. This also includes Omar Alsaidi, who ran the same time at both, as well as Jacob Cavanaugh, who was hurt all year. Those examples go to show Oakdale drops a lot of time when it matters, even counting injuries or crazy early season performances that are hard to improve on. This is likely a down year for Oakdale, coming off a 4th, 1st, and 2nd in the division, but that almost helps my metric since the younger/slower times have more room to grow. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see them in the top 5, see them beat Ponderosa after losing at Sections, or even podium. This team is better than 2021 Oakdale, and that team managed 4th place.

Also, look out for Aden Cavanaugh in the next few years. Caleb was great and Jacob is good, but the 3rd times the charm with the Cavanaugh bloodline.

What happened to Logan Daley (I think that’s the name of Dax’s brother)?

His family moved to Utah after Dax's senior year. I don't believe he runs for his new high school.

edit: I thought it said individual, not team lmao

Girls Rankings

Top Southern Section Teams
(Division 1) Trabuco Hills - 136 Speed Rating (SS FINALS)
(Division 1) Santiago Corona - 128 Speed Rating (SS FINALS) - #3 at Woodbridge - 132, #3 Clovis - 131
(Division 4) Jserra Catholic - 120 Speed Rating (SS FINALS) - #5 at Woodbridge - 121, #2 Clovis - 126,
(Division 3) South Pasadena - 117 Speed Rating (SS FINALS) - #20 at Woodbridge - 110 - #16 Clovis - 107
(Division 2) El Toro - 112 Speed Rating (SS FINALS) - #7 Clovis - 115
(Division 2) Ventura - 113 Speed Rating (SS FINALS) - #2 at Woodbridge - 131 - #4 Clovis - 126
(Division 2) Tesoro - 109 Speed Rating (SS FINALS) - #9 at Woodbridge - 118 - #10 Clovis - 113
(Division 1) Mira Costa - 106 Speed Rating (SS FINALS)
(Division 2) Claremont - 107 Speed Rating (SS FINALS) - #18 Clovis - 102
(Division 1) Arcadia - 107 Speed Rating (SS FINALS)

Central Coast Section Teams
(Division 2) St Francis (CCS) - 111 Speed Rating (CCS Finals) - #5 Clovis - 115
(Division 1) Del Norte (SD) - 120 Speed Rating (SD Finals) - #6 Clovis - 115
(Division 3) Point Loma - 107 Speed Rating (SD Finals)

San Diego Section Teams
(Division 1) Canyon Crest Academy - 107 Speed Rating (SD Finals)
(Division 3) Cathedral Catholic - 107 Speed Rating (SD Finals) - #11 at Woodbridge - 112
(Division 2) Scripps Ranch (SD) - 108 Speed Rating (SD Finals) - #12 at Woodbridge - 112

SJ Section
(Division 2) Whitney (SJ) - 105 Speed Rating (SJ Finals)
(Division 1) Oak Ridge (SJ) - 103 Speed Rating (SJ Finals) - #9 Clovis 112
(Division 1) Davis Senior (SJ) - 100 Speed Rating (SJ Finals)

North Coast Section
(Division 2) Monte Vista (NC) - 116 Speed Rating (NC Finals) - #19 at Woodbridge - 110 - #8 Clovis 112
(Division 2) Redwood (NC) - 114 Speed Rating (NC Finals)
(Division 1) Berkeley (NC) - 109 Speed Rating (NC Finals)

Central Section Teams
(Division 1) Buchanan (CS) - 130 Speed Rating (CS Finals) - #4 at Woodbridge - 125, #1 Clovis - 131

Fastest girl teams predictions combined
#1 - Trabuco Hills (clearly the very dominant team that was saving for the post season, 136 speed says they are look for a podium finish at nxn)
#2 - Buchanan (very good improvement from Woodbridge to Clovis but a step back at cs finals with a slower Woodward park time, can they bounce back for state?)
#3 - Santiago Corona (seems to be following a downward trend, however they have a very strong resume early season, with their Woodbridge performance standing out the most). (Hopefully they can bounce back to their early days?)
#4 Jserra (Strong performance at Woodbridge and Clovis, more questionable performance at cif finals, will they have what it takes to hit even harder than their 126 speed rating average at the Clovis invitational?). Maybe an all time Woodward park time for the team? Could be in contention for an at-large but unfortunately they were 7th at the bob firman invitational. Not bad for a California team a week after Woodbridge, but definitely not a good look)
#5 - Del Norte (Following a very strong upward trend, this team is geared for post season). (Went from 115 at Clovis to now 120 at SD Finals and gearing up for state)
#6 - South Pasadena - (team that is bouncing back to very bad finishes at both the Clovis Invitational and Woodbridge, they are hoping to come back post season, having already been the 4th best team in the merge)
#7 - Monte Vista - (the north coast team that is coming back in full swing after ok performances at Woodbridge and Clovis).
#8 - St Francis - (matt_c thinks this team will go to nxn, so maybe they will surprise us?) (I honestly agree that they are a wild card and they are a little better than what the speed ratings show).
#9 - Redmond - (The north coast section team that has come out of nowhere in the post season, nobody seen this coming, not even Rich G, they almost challenge the north coast section title of the all hailed monte vista)
#10 - Whitney - (SJ section has very difficult courses so it will help them come the state meet, I honestly believe this team will do better than expected, they are my wild card pick)
#11 - Ventura - (the strongest early season California team, has been dealing with injuries) (wild card if they can come back from the fall)

Division 1 Podium Picks
#1 - Trabuco Hills (SS)
#2 - Buchanan (CS)
#3 - Santiago Corona (SS)
Division 2 Podium Picks
#1 - Monte Vista (NCS)
#2 - St Francis (CCS)
#3 - Redmont (NCS)
Ventura wild card, could either finish way ahead of everyone, but right now is projected behind
Division 3 Podium Picks
#1 - South Pasadena (SS)
#2 - Point Loma (SD)
#3 - Cathedra Catholic (SD)
Division 4
#1 - Jserra
Division 5
#1 Crystal Springs Upland (CCS)

So, expecting a 14:30s winning time, maybe even under.

Ain't no one running that fast, get a grip.

What Evidence to back up this claim? It’s really not that out of reality for someone like Griffin to PR by 12 seconds and go ~14:30. Last year, Aydon Stefanopoulos for example ran 15:16 at Crystal Springs before he ran 14:58 at state. This year he’s around 25 seconds faster which would put him around 14:30 assuming perfect correlation. I am not saying it it is going to happen, but you’re being disingenuous if you don’t think it’s within the realm of reality.

Excellent lists from all of you! I really appreciate your insights!

Predicted CIF Boys Results

Division 1: Beckman
1. Maximo Zavaleta
Division 2: Jesuit (fastest team time)
1. Griffin Kushen
2. Aydon Stefanopoulos
3. Trey Caldwell
Then Daillak, Flores, & Lesher
Division 3: Oak Park
Evan Noonan
Miles Cook (I expect to surprise some)
Liam Miller
Division 4: Oak Christian
1. Eli Fitchen-young (fastest individual time)
2. Broen Holman
Division 5: Menlo
Landon Pretre
Eyan Turk
Ben Bouie

Merge:
Jesuit
Beckman
Mira Costa
Menlo

Predicted Top 5 Individuals:
1. Eli Fitchen-young
2. Broen Holman
3. Evan Noonan
4. Griffin Kushen
5. Landon Pretre

Two At-larges???
1. Aydon Stefanopoulos
2. Trey Caldwell (Never beat Aydon at Woodward before)

Boys team rankings

Boys Rankings
Combined top 15 predictions
#1 Arnold Beckman
#2 Jesuit SJ
#3 Menlo
#4 Great Oak
#5 Oaks Christian
#6 Glendora
#7 Matilda Torres (record setting CS performance at Rough Rider though)
#8 Mira Costa
#9 Mountain View
#10 Cresenta Valley

Top Southern Section Teams
(Division 1) Arnold Beckman - 175 Speed Rating (SS Finals) - #1 at Clovis - 180, #25 at Woodbridge - 165
(Division 4) Oaks Christian - 175 Speed Rating (SS Finals) - #3 at Woodbridge rated race - 170
(Division 1) Great Oak - 174 Speed Rating (SS Finals) - #8 at Clovis - 172 - #12 at Woodbridge - 169
(Division 2) Glendora - 173 Speed Rating (SS Finals) - #5 at Clovis - 175, #11 at Woodbridge - 170
(Division 1) Mira Costa - 172 Speed Rating (SS Finals) - #8 at Woodbridge - 171
(Division 1) Cresenta Valley - 171 Speed Rating (SS Finals) - #6 at Clovis - 173 - #19 at Woodbridge - 166
(Division 4) Jserra - 171 Speed Rating (SS Finals) - #10 at Clovis - 171 - #17 at Woodbridge - 168
(Division 1) Trabuco Hills - 173 Speed Rating (SS Finals) - #28 at Woodbridge - 165
(Division 1) Redondo Union - 169 Speed Rating (SS Finals) - #5 at Woodbridge rated - 167
(Division 2) La Serna - 169 Speed Rating (SS Finals)
(Division 1) San Clemente - 170 Speed Rating (SS Finals)

Central Coast Section Teams
(Division 5) Menlo - 177 Speed Rating (CCS Finals) - #11 at Clovis - 168, Woodbridge - 172
(Division 1) Mountain View- 170 Speed Rating (CCS Finals) - Winner of Woodbridge Rated Race - 168
(Division 1) Bellarmine - 168 Speed Rating (CCS Finals) - #12 at Clovis - 168

San Diego Section Teams
(Division 1) - Poway - 165 Speed Rating (SD Finals)
(Division 1) Del Norte - 164 Speed Rating (SD Finals)

SJ Section Teams
(Division 2) Jesuit SJ - 175 Speed Rating (SJ Finals) - #2 at Clovis - 179,
(Division 2) Vacaville - 166 Speed Rating (SJ Finals) - #6 at Woodbridge rated race - 164
(Division 1) Davis - 165 Speed Rating (SJ Finals)
North Coast Section Teams
NA

Central Section Teams
(Division 2) Matilda Torres - 171 Speed Rating (CC Finals) - #9 at Clovis - 172 - #10 at Woodbridge - 170
(Division 1) Buchanan - 169 Speed Rating (CC Finals) - #7 at Clovis - 173 - #24 at Woodbridge - 166
(Division 2) Clovis North - 166 Speed Rating (CC Finals)
(Division 1) Clovis East - 166 Speed Rating (CC Finals) - #13 at Woodbridge - 168