K5,
She is using the last 100 year performance as her benchmark, right now she's counting on taking retirement at age 130. She knows Social Security won't be there so she's counting on stocks for the long run, and of course the compounding effect of a buy and hold strategy.
Igy
"Trump rally could mark biggest postelection stock market rise since Hoover"
I read the title and instantly thought of Igy.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Say wha? wrote:You embrace history when it fits your narrative, but discount it when it doesn't. You are the ultimate cherry picker.
I have yet to see anything of substance from you be it history or otherwise. Your comments usually contain some ridiculous overused phrases like "cherry picking" "straw man" or "myopic." In the future enlighten us with a wider vocabulary.
I could just as easily have written your first sentence about you. Every one of your posts can be summarized as you shouting, "Wolf!"
If you don't like the phrases people use when replying to you, then stop your silly diversion game. We all see through your silly charade.
But really... wrote:
Also the LONGEST time with interest rates at ZERO... BY FAR.
In the U.S., there have been exactly ZERO days with those interest rates.
6th consecutive record close. Life is good!
Sure. Whatever you say. Uh huh.
Say wha? wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:I have yet to see anything of substance from you be it history or otherwise. Your comments usually contain some ridiculous overused phrases like "cherry picking" "straw man" or "myopic." In the future enlighten us with a wider vocabulary.
I could just as easily have written your first sentence about you. Every one of your posts can be summarized as you shouting, "Wolf!"
If you don't like the phrases people use when replying to you, then stop your silly diversion game. We all see through your silly charade.
When I saw your post I thought of this:
From your link...
S&P P/E has decreased ~80% in the last 7+ years,
S&P earnings are ~3X the historical mean.
The problem is you don't understand. PEs are always highest before a market collapse because E falls faster than P. What is telling is that S&P 500 EPS has fallen 17.7% since 9/30/2014 yet the index has climbed 15%. Investors are paying up for a unit of earnings. Go ahead and buy if you think that makes sense.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
The problem is you don't understand. PEs are always highest before a market collapse because E falls faster than P. What is telling is that S&P 500 EPS has fallen 17.7% since 9/30/2014 yet the index has climbed 15%. Investors are paying up for a unit of earnings. Go ahead and buy if you think that makes sense.
Ghost of Iggy - you can keep spewing this crap for days and days. Eventually, the market will take a dive. And you will be vindicated. And soon after that, the market will rebound in a huge way like it does always. 10% and 12% returns for history and that is not even counting another 1$ for dividends reinvested. Which other investment offers those types of returns?
EPS is up big. You can twist the numbers all you want, but facts are facts. P/E is down big and EPS is up big.
Stocks are good investments. Bonds are good investments. Cash holdings are good investments. Valuation, time horizon and risk tolerance should determine the percentage held in a given market environment.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Stocks are good investments. Bonds are good investments. Cash holdings are good investments. Valuation, time horizon and risk tolerance should determine the percentage held in a given market environment.
Okay fair enough. I just wanted to stress that stocks and bonds have been historically good investments.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
time horizon
That's why you're a joke. Your time horizon is whenever it happens. Then you'll claim you called it. A 10 year old can do that.
You lie like a rug or are just an ignoramus.
I will let others decide which of those you are.
9/14/2014 S&P 500 LTM GAAP EPS $105.96, index 1,972
9/30/2016 S&P 500 LTM GAAP EPS $89.10, index 2,082
Source:
https://us.spindices.com/documents/additional-material/sp-500-eps-est.xlsx
Igy
Mellon,Yes, and an adult with reasonable intelligence can seek out information. Where does that leave you?Igy
Mellon wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:time horizon
That's why you're a joke. Your time horizon is whenever it happens. Then you'll claim you called it. A 10 year old can do that.
Igloi - have you predicted any market collapse? Or are you just like Glenn Beck and always proclaimining market will collapse?
HC Supporter,
No not really. There have been a couple of predictions that I have participated in. Just for fun.
Markets can move higher based on rising multiples. This market speak is shorthand for investors paying more for a unit of earnings. Like paying more for anything, not an optimal investment strategy.
My view is based on valuation metrics. I posted a couple of posts above how the current Shiller CAPE 10 has only been exceeded twice 1929 and 2000. Fair valuation based on GAAP EPS would be about 1,350.
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
You lie like a rug or are just an ignoramus.
I will let others decide which of those you are.
No lie. I used data from the web site you linked to. Why did you provide that link if you didn't want me to look at it?
I assume you know I'm right since you've resorted to insults.
What's the problem? wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:You lie like a rug or are just an ignoramus.
I will let others decide which of those you are.
No lie. I used data from the web site you linked to. Why did you provide that link if you didn't want me to look at it?
I assume you know I'm right since you've resorted to insults.
You caught him. He is snake oil salesman. Nothing more.