Down goes the Dow

Chin up and Pull up champ wrote:

Say wha? wrote:

So it's different this time?

Never different. Highs and lows but in the end you get 10 to 12% (even more with reinvested dividends) on average. Best investment going over the long haul.

Truth, but Igy is in denial.

Sorry about brevity I am on the phone.

Igy uses historical GAAP P/E's as a referent, with the goal being to generate cash flow.

Those are not things that the luxury class cares about, although they are historically normal views of the markets.

As Ryan said, the behavior of market participants is increasingly disconnected from these historically understood motivations and views of market function. Every single asset manager with whom I have spoken, in every country in which I have asked, has told me that the average percentile wealth of their investors has increased, meaning that there has been a shift upward in investor socio-economic status, at both the individual and organizational levels.

It remains to be seen if they are sufficiently numerous and influential for their attitudes to become a controlling market factor. Yes the ride has now been going for 3 years, and that's a heck of a long time--maybe too long to be just artificial. Maybe it has been organic in nature. The longer it continues, the more it looks organic, at least to me.

As someone said, earnings suck but look to be improving. When things are already pretty good for you, any improving trend is greeted warmly, as reassuringly validative, no matter what the baseline, because your personal baseline is quite fine.

BTW at the moment I am entertaining a house guest who is buying Hawaiian waterfront at its peak. He doesn't care, he has the money and figures that he needs to spend it before he dies. He is "only" 66, and I know more than a few like him. At age 66, he is almost entirely in equities, with some premium RE thrown in.

Agip Trump is for sure a buffoon and the hero of his own life, but that does not mean that he will not be good for the office. Having met a few of his world-leader contemporaries, I can say that the field is not chock-full of intelligent, dignified, and caring characters. There are all sorts in their ranks--all sorts except for the humble, that is.

Maserati,

The wealthy make foolish investments just like everyone else. The loss of money is just greater and the wealthy generally have enough money to recover.

Anyone that has been in this business long enough, and has a historical footing in markets, would observe that your wealthy friend is typical. In fact the history of Japanese investors in Hawaiian real estate is well known. Our future President made several boneheaded investments, and was able to pass on the losses to bond holders. Perhaps he learned his lesson, sold his stocks in July, and has referred to the stock market as a "big fat ugly bubble." Although he has quietly left that comment alone.

Igy

Thanks for the brevity. 🙄

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Maserati,

The wealthy make foolish investments just like everyone else. The loss of money is just greater and the wealthy generally have enough money to recover.

Anyone that has been in this business long enough, and has a historical footing in markets, would observe that your wealthy friend is typical. In fact the history of Japanese investors in Hawaiian real estate is well known. Our future President made several boneheaded investments, and was able to pass on the losses to bond holders. Perhaps he learned his lesson, sold his stocks in July, and has referred to the stock market as a "big fat ugly bubble." Although he has quietly left that comment alone.

Igy

A big fat ugly bubble that may burst and in a few months will be up again. Always up again in the long term. Do you not acknowledge that, Iggy?

Read the latest posts. Igy believes it's different this time.

If history is any indication 3/2000 high and 10/2002 low, or 10/2007 high and 3/2009 low. The low on 3/2009 took the market back to 1996 levels, took until April 2013 to set a new high. A likely but not extreme low for this cycle would target levels equivalent to 1998.

Polly Plumper wrote:

So if the market takes a dive, Ghost of Igloi's warnings have come to fruition.

I don't think that the market taking a dive after a 3 1/2 year old warning with an opened ended time frame would constitute coming to fruition. He might as well said, "There is a chance the Market might go down sometime between now and the end of the world".

He hasn't a clue.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

If history is any indication 3/2000 high and 10/2002 low, or 10/2007 high and 3/2009 low. The low on 3/2009 took the market back to 1996 levels, took until April 2013 to set a new high. A likely but not extreme low for this cycle would target levels equivalent to 1998.

You embrace history when it fits your narrative, but discount it when it doesn't. You are the ultimate cherry picker.

Maserati wrote:

Agip Trump is for sure a buffoon and the hero of his own life, but that does not mean that he will not be good for the office. Having met a few of his world-leader contemporaries, I can say that the field is not chock-full of intelligent, dignified, and caring characters. There are all sorts in their ranks--all sorts except for the humble, that is.

they aren't as bad as trump - he is legit the worst major country leader in my lifetime. and that includes nixon. I can't even think of someone in the same category as bad. Maybe berlusconi.

I'm honestly not sure institutions in teh world and US are strong enough to keep him from doing unfixable damage.

Say wha? wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

If history is any indication 3/2000 high and 10/2002 low, or 10/2007 high and 3/2009 low. The low on 3/2009 took the market back to 1996 levels, took until April 2013 to set a new high. A likely but not extreme low for this cycle would target levels equivalent to 1998.

You embrace history when it fits your narrative, but discount it when it doesn't. You are the ultimate cherry picker.

I have yet to see anything of substance from you be it history or otherwise. Your comments usually contain some ridiculous overused phrases like "cherry picking" "straw man" or "myopic." In the future enlighten us with a wider vocabulary.

agip wrote:

apparently this is the fourth longest expansion since 1900

yeah, vote out the b@stards.

sorry. Angry, I am.

Also the LONGEST time with interest rates at ZERO... BY FAR.

Are you really surprised that we've been able to have a prolonged period of expansion after such a sharp, deep drop, followed by a ton of QE and delicate handling of monetary policy? You know it has nothing to do with politics, right? I mean come on, it's purely quantitative.

When would you rather take over a new position, when things are going great already, or after a disaster with nowhere to go but up?

But really... wrote:

agip wrote:

apparently this is the fourth longest expansion since 1900

yeah, vote out the b@stards.

sorry. Angry, I am.

Also the LONGEST time with interest rates at ZERO... BY FAR.

Are you really surprised that we've been able to have a prolonged period of expansion after such a sharp, deep drop, followed by a ton of QE and delicate handling of monetary policy? You know it has nothing to do with politics, right? I mean come on, it's purely quantitative.

When would you rather take over a new position, when things are going great already, or after a disaster with nowhere to go but up?

eh?

the us 10 year, which is a better measure of interest rates than the fed funds rate, was this low for something like 12 years - 1940-1952.

When inflation is low, interest rates can be low. This is basic.

QE? omigod the 10 year rate was 2.2% but it would have been 2.4% without QE!!!!! Holy carp it's all a big QE bubble!!!!! honey, bury the gold!!!!!

agip,

Belgium issued 100 year bonds earlier in the year at 100, by July they were up to 147, but trading at 102 today. In July TLT was trading at $147 and $117 today. Euphoria in stocks and carnage in bonds.

Igy

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

agip,

Belgium issued 100 year bonds earlier in the year at 100, by July they were up to 147, but trading at 102 today. In July TLT was trading at $147 and $117 today. Euphoria in stocks and carnage in bonds.

Igy

agreed

is that a reason to say the economic expansion of the last 8 years is fake and artificially created by QE and a low fed funds rate?

not seeing a direct line there

Say wha? wrote:

Chin up and Pull up champ wrote:

[quote]Say wha? wrote:

So it's different this time?

Never different. Highs and lows but in the end you get 10 to 12% (even more with reinvested dividends) on average. Best investment going over the long haul.

Wow. Such a childlike belief in the market.

[quote]SAlly V wrote:

[quote]Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Always up again in the long term.

Do you have the physics or math that proves this to be the case?