2024 California HS XC CIF

I know it's a difficult historical course for NXR NE, but seeing a 15:29 5K by Joe Barrett being the 2nd fastest speed rating in the midst of a bunch of sub 15 5K's and low 14 or sub 14 3 mile races is pretty jarring.

Seems like Crystal Springs is being heavily underrated, placing NXN 19th place finisher at 42 based off of his massive PR and course record at Crystal is just off. Same goes for Landon, Aydon, and Ben, all of which have excellent tracking and xc credentials.

They are all too low based off of their Crystal performances.

After last year's teams didn't live up to the massive expectations of Newbury park's legacy and we lost another historically strong group of seniors, most national rankings are dismissing Californian runners (which is somewhat justified after this year's Woodbridge invite) as inherently less competent than other runners with experience on grassy courses. It's gotten to a ridiculous level recently as even though we've seen breakout performances team-wise and individually such as Eli FY and trey Caldwell's performances at crystal springs, Beckman's Clovis race, and griffin kushen's time at Mt SAC, our runners are still being seen as lesser than the rest of the nation. Tullyrunners is definitely the worst culprit of this, as others have pointed out, by having a heavy bias towards pre-season nationally ranked teams like CBA. If anyone watched NXR northeast, they would see that Joe Barret exerted barely any effort, yet that performance is being ranked as #2 in the nation this season. I really hope our teams and individuals can show up at NXN this year so that the same thing is not repeated next year, otherwise we might have to endure this for longer.

Trash found in trashcan

How about you spend 20 hours every week (for 25 years) putting together a guesswork system based on estimates that are only meant to be used for the purpose of fun and projections and have other people call that system trash to you. No system is perfect that is why NXN and Footlocker and State is what is the final decision maker on rankings.

Even if the system is underranking our runners (maybe for crystal springs but everything else has been great), it is better that way. Look at the Southwest and how badly they kill it at the national level because people underranked them last season. Trust me nobody looks at rankings once the season is done. Rankings don't matter. Races matter.

We have so many wonderful volunteers in our sport. Everyone from Tullyrunners, everyone who writes articles for california, hdrunners and po man who spend countless of time covering our sport in the most entertaining way possible.

CIF state meet boys teams predictions

D1:
1. Beckman
2. Great Oak
3. Mira Costa

D2:
1. Jesuit
2. Glendora
3. Matilda Torres

D3:
1. Oak Park
2. South Pasadena
3. Hart

D4:
1. Oaks Christian
2. JSerra
3. Foothill Technology

D5:
1. Menlo
2. Crystal Springs Uplands
3. Viewpoint

Team Merge:
1. Beckman
2. Jesuit
3. Great Oak
4. Oaks Christian
5. Glendora

Division Rankings going into State

Division 1:
1. Maximo Zavaleta (MLK): 188
2. Dylan Jubak (Trabuco Hills): 185
3. Issaiah McCorvey (Lancaster): 185
4. Conor Lott (Clovis North): 184
5. Luke Sanders (Buchanan): 184
6. Arrin Sagiraju (Dougherty Valley): 184
7. Ziyad Abdallah (Trabuco Hills): 182
8. Aaron Pavon (Loyala): 182
9. Cooper Castleberry (Poway): 181
10. Camden Luetch (Rancho Bernardo): 181
(Would add Mason Nyguen but given the state he is in rn, had to hold off)

Division 2:
1. Tyler Dalliak (Paso Robles): 193
2. Griffin Kushen (Tesoro): 193
3. Trey Caldwell (De La Salle): 193
4. Aydon Stefanopoulos (Los Gatos): 191
5. Dylan Flores (Glendora): 188
6. JR Lesher (Hueneme): 188
7. Benjamin Fernandez (Matilda Torres): 186
8. Hunter Hannah (Matilda Torres): 184
9. Yosef Berhan (Piedmont Hills): 183
10. Sebastian Peraza (Saugus): 181

Berhan beat Murillo at CCS and Peraza beat Antonio at CIF finals (Murillo and Antonio were originally in the top 10 rankings)

Division 3:
1. Evan Noonan (Dana Hills): 192
2. Liam Miller (South Torrance): 188
3. Miles Cook (SHCP): 188
4. Zion Ortiz (Burroughs Ridgecrest): 187
5. Oliver Zimmerman (Thousand Oaks: 186
6. Oliver Hunter (Dana Hills): 185
7. Josiah Bowman (Sage Creek): 182
8. Noel Huato (Del Oro): 182
9. Andrew Quast (West Torrance): 181
10. Andres Lomeli (Kimball): 180

Division 4:
1. Eli Fitchen-Young (Santa Cruz): 192
2. Broen Holman (Sonora): 192
3. Max Douglass (Corona Del Mar): 185
4. Christian Yoder (Oaks Christian): 184
5. Cooper McNee (Oaks Christian): 182
6. Bradley Arrey (Jserra): 181
7. Auge Martin (Saint Francis): 187
8. Viggo Bortolin (Foothill Techology): 178
9. Taye Newman (Jserra): 180
10. Omar Fabila (Cathedral)

Just hear me out. Going by recent performances, Martin is going lower due to his performance at Southern Sections. Douglass got brownie points for winning CIF. On top of that, multiple guys ranked below Martin did beat him this weekend. Fabila isn’t shown in the TullySpeed Ratings but Callum McBride is. Considering McBride isn’t racing states, he’s automatically off the table. Fabila seems like the next best option. Holman may be rated slightly higher than Fitchen-Young, but imo I think Eli has had more impressive showings as of recent than Broen.

Division 5:
1. Landon Pretre (Menlo): 192
2. Ben Bouie (CSUS): 191
3. Eyan Turk (Woodcrest Christian): 188
4. Olly O Connor (Viewpoint): 187
5. Will Hauser (Menlo): 180
6. Ryan Fitzpatrick (Nueva): 182
7. Theo Udelson-Nee (Wildwood): 179
8. Henry Hauser (Menlo)
9. Tarik Baker (CSUS)
10. Finn Babbit (Mary Star of the Sea), Jared Saal (Menlo), or Jackson Poburko (Trinity)

W Hauser beat Fitzpatrick and H Hauser beat Baker at CCS. Tough to pick a 10th runner but I got three options. Babbit was behind Udelson-Nee by about 3 seconds at CIF Finals. Saal doesn’t seem to far behind Baker at CCS. Poburko may be a wildcard. Junior from the Northern Sections running sub 16 and 4:14 1600 as a Sophomore (only being two spots away from qualifying for CIF Finals in the 1600).

nice very detailed ranking system sjsglaze. I will make a similar one for girls later today individuals/teams

Will do one for girls later

ok if you can do the individual girl rankings, that will be great, I will take care of team rankings then for both boys/girls.

Gotchu, Imma do it once I’m done hitting the books :)

I'm picking Oakdale to podium in D3 and Matilda Torres for 2nd in D2 and top 5 in state

There’s no shot Oakdale is making podium. Dominguez and J Cavanaugh haven’t been on that level as Alsaidi, The Oliveras, Daley, and C Cavanaugh have shown. They got Whitemayer but they fall off from there. Hell, they got 2nd in sections to Ponderosa. The Oakdale dynasty is over

State meet girls team predictions.
I won’t be doing all of the divisions for this one.

D1:
1. Trabuco Hills
2. Buchanan
3. Santiago Corona

D2:
1. St Francis Mountain View
2. Ventura
3. El Toro

D4:
1. JSerra

Team Merge:
1. Trabuco Hills
2. Buchanan
3. Santiago Corona
4. JSerra
5. St Francis Mountain View

They've definitely lost a lot, but you can't sleep on Cavanaugh or Dominguez and Whitemayer is the truth. All 3 will be below 16 and that's a great start to a podium in a D3. From there, they've got some young talent and I have no doubt that Moreno will have them as ready as they can be.

Oakdale never peaks for Folsom and always peaks for Fresno. You haven't seen their best yet. They got 4th in 2021 with a 15:37, 15:57, 16:25, 16:49, and 16:49. Teams are faster now, but they'll smoke those times this year.

And, as for the dynasty being over, they'll be competing for section titles and podiums at state for awhile, I think. You have no idea what's coming down the pipe.

Not sure if they'll get to the same level as a team, but I think school records will be falling in the next few years.

Girls Dlll doesn't rank?

D5 ?

Girl’s Individual Division Rankings go into state

Division 1:
1. Riley Blade (Santiago Corona): 159
2. Holly Barker (Trabuco Hills): 152
3. Millie Byles (Trabuco Hills): 151
4. Braelyn Combe (Santiago Corona): 144
5. Isabella Ramirez (Bullard): 141
6. Jaelyn Williams (Eastlake): 139
7. Katja Dunayevich (CCA): 138
8. Eliza Hong (Del Norte): 137
9. Megan Crum (Temescal Canyon): 135
10. Molly Sundgren (Buchanan): 134

Division 2:
1. Sadie Engelhardt (Ventura): 161
2. Mackenzie Forrest (Tesoro): 139
3. Grace Smith (Claremont): 137
4. Amber Dazey (Tesoro): 136
5. Keaton Robar (Newport Harbor): 136
6. Jordin Lieberman (Murrieta Valley): 135
7. Gweneth Williams (El Toro): 133
8. Isla Bulmer (Claremont): 133
9. Natalie Arriaza (Patterson): 133
10. Kinga Czajkowska (Palo Alto): 133

Division 3:
1. Hanne Thomson (Montgomery): 151
2. Abigail Errington (South Pasadena): 150
3. Summer Wilson (Irvine): 148
4. Harper Diaz (Santana): 136
5. Annie Ivarsson (Dana Hills): 134
6. Gabriella Peters (Sage Creek): 134
7. Serenity Fausto (Santa Fe): 133
8. Seelah Kittlestrom (Montgomery): 132
9. Jocelyn Gibson (Cathedral Catholic): 130
10. Amrie Lacefield (Montgomery): 130

Realistically, the freshman, Neela Whatley (Campolindo), should be number 10 just due to have a better speed rating than Lacefield. However, she didn’t race NCS- what is the status with her? The battle between Thomson, Errington, and Wilson should be interesting.

Division 4:
1. Chiara Dailey (La Jolla): 156
2. Maya De Bower (La Cañada): 142
3. Sophie Polay (Jserra): 132
4. Chloe Elbaz (Jserra): 128
5. Hayden Kroger (Jserra): 128
6. Reese Holley (Jserra): 127
7. Frannie Perry (Templeton): 126
8. Lindsey Billotte (Coastal Academy): 126
9. Maddie Giorgio (Malborough)
10. Ava Decleve (Scotts Valley) or Hannah Nourse (Laguna Hills)

The speed ratings for DIV girls ends at Billotte. Giorgio was two seconds behind Elbaz and Nourse was 11 seconds behind Holley at CIF Finals. Going thru last years results Decleve seems to be someone who can get onto the podium- 15th place 18:24 last season.

Division 5:
1. Ayanna Hickey (Bishop’s School): 137
2. Amelia Sarkisian (Brentwood): 128
3. Brooke Oliveira (Castilleja)
4. Anna Salter (CSUS)
5. Ella Mogannam (Lick Wilmerding)
6. Caroline Chang (Lick Wilmerding)
7. Clara Riddle (Immanuel)
8. Ariella Llorens (Francis Parker)
9. Farah Allen (Branson)?
10. Olivia Teates (Francis Parker)?

Only DV speed ratings come from Hickey and Sarkisian, so I had to just make an “educated” guess. I don’t have much knowledge on DV girls individuals, besides Salter and Riddle- so I just had to go through many section races and other competitive races to get an idea of who will make the podium.

Did someone from Oakdale write this😭