Scott Jurek Appalachian Trail Record Attempt

Link wrote:

This. The guy must be trolling. I was a mid 2:20s marathoner who recorded several years over 7000 miles. I've hiked most of the AT (in sections). There is no WAY that someone could cover it in 33 days. No. Way. On the AT, you're almost always going up or going down, usually over rocks. If someone ever does it in even under 40, I''m going to demand that they be drug tested.

33 days is ~66.3 miles/day. ~4 mi/hr would get it done. weather would be a huge contingency. feet would be the other. but with luck with both, it'd be relatively easy. weston was walking 60/day, with vertical, for a month at the age of 68. the AT surface is tough. but not that tough. i've done 2 weeks of low 60s in the whites, and im no specialist. meltzers the closest to a real athlete thats given it a try, but he was so far removed from a specialist it's not really worth analyzing his efforts. get a meltzer who's been working on lengthy speed pieces for 10 years, and 33 days happens.

12:00pm - After a few stream fords, he's at the base of Barren Mountain, a 3-mile 10% grade climb. Less than 99 miles to go.

perspective wrote:

33 days is ~66.3 miles/day. ~4 mi/hr would get it done. weather would be a huge contingency. feet would be the other. but with luck with both, it'd be relatively easy. weston was walking 60/day, with vertical, for a month at the age of 68. the AT surface is tough. but not that tough. i've done 2 weeks of low 60s in the whites, and im no specialist. meltzers the closest to a real athlete thats given it a try, but he was so far removed from a specialist it's not really worth analyzing his efforts. get a meltzer who's been working on lengthy speed pieces for 10 years, and 33 days happens.

Working 16+ hrs a day, non-stop, no breaks, stop, eat, go to bed and start again in the morning, for 33 straight days. Better get one of those 11 y/o making shoes for nike if you want to see that accomplished.

perspective wrote:

33 days is ~66.3 miles/day. it'd be relatively easy. the AT surface is tough. but not that tough.

If it's so easy, how come you haven't tried it? You know, you already did 2 weeks of low 60's in the whites...what's another 3 weeks of high 60's per day?

MeHereYouWhere?! wrote:

If it's so easy, how come you haven't tried it? You know, you already did 2 weeks of low 60's in the whites...what's another 3 weeks of high 60's per day?

other "easy" things i haven't tried: going to a strip club, working at mcdonald's, being monogamous.

there's no money in this, and no significant fame. it's also a very different kinda joy than you might get with most physical pursuits.

but these are all reasons that the numbers we're talking about here aren't very impressive in the objective sense. the thru-hike community is, by and large, a community of non-athletes, and a community of folks unaccustomed to treating it like work. the athletic community that has attempted it is, by and large, a community totally untrained for it.

whats the analogue? there's no good one, but consider the marathon. assume your population of competitors is: 1) everybody capable of running a mile in no faster than 8 minutes, plus 2) everybody capable of training no more than 10 miles/week. what kind of record would we be worshipping? ~3 hours? fiddle with the numbers some, but that's largely the conversation we're having, no?

There's a huge difference between two weeks and four+ weeks but you didn't do "2 weeks of low 60s in the whites" anyway so that point is moot. Cheers.

MeHereYouWhere?! wrote:

perspective wrote:

33 days is ~66.3 miles/day. it'd be relatively easy. the AT surface is tough. but not that tough.

If it's so easy, how come you haven't tried it? You know, you already did 2 weeks of low 60's in the whites...what's another 3 weeks of high 60's per day?

Perspective is blowing his own horn, but his basic point is correct. We all agree that ultra records would drop if there was more money in ultra running than marathons. Well, thru-hiking the AT for time is a much less developed community than ultra-running.

In the northeast, the northern mountain slopes tend to be gentler grade while southern slopes are steeper. I think this is the effect of receding glaciers during the end of last ice age

He's past Barren Mtn summit up on the ridge, and Passing Cloud Pond, 95 miles to go.

Assuming he sets the record by a few hours:

-He gets on the cover of a few mags, but the hiker community "knows" that Pharr-Davis' or maybe Kirk's record is the form/style record. Right?

But if he doesn't set the record:

-What next? It puts additional focus on the existing records, and probably some more hard-people (sponsored) runners get out there next year to make a go for it. Next year you could have something like 3-5 vans out there, maybe with Meltzer and Jurek going as a team.

What do you think?

How about a race between Karl Meltzer and Scott Jurek:

Karl starts on Springer Mt. in Georgia (and heads north) and Scott starts at Mt. Katahdin in Maine (and heads south).

They can high-five each other as they pass each other (some where north of the half way point I assume).

Someone could put up some prize money...

Just being a little funny here!

Does anyone know why Karl stopped on his attempt last year? Think Scott will return the favor of pacing/crewing next year when he (Karl) tries the AT record again? I know Karl has posted on the LRC boards in the past and is just a genuinely nice guy (via a few meetings and conversations with him), so I wish him nothing but the best.

First, I think you'd like the pre-attempt interview with Karl (15 mins) if you haven't seen it yet (very interesting):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cbjC1Yky4n0

Second, here is a message Karl gave to a guy named Bill on WhiteBalze about last summer's failed attempt:

Hello Bill. Speedgoat Karl here. I am not able to post on Whiteblaze for some reason so I have been pretty silent, but you have been watching quite diligently, so I'll go through you.

I fell off pace around the Priest in Virginia. I had two bad days in a row, no energy, yada, yada. I stopped because I felt the record was out of reach. I believe I needed 56 per day with 15 or so days left. It was not in the cards this year to attain that, so I went home, as I said I would. Jen put up some pretty big numbers in the second half, so my strategy was to get a little ahead in VT where she struggled a bit. I did that, with a 22 mile lead at one point, but I knew after that lead, I began to falter a bit and could feel it was going to be tough with here numbers later. Once I started to fall back a bit, mostly because my feet were really bothering me more than anything, I fell a bit behind. Then the section in Va killed me.

"seatbelt" my pride is not bruised, it just was not in the cards this time, perhaps a third time is a charm. :)

I was not posting because I do not typically like running/hiking with others, I'd rather be alone with the bears, so posting only brings people out to run/hike with me. It's just the way I like to do it.

Feel free to post this on Whiteblaze. it's all good, and thanks everyone for being kind this time. If I go at it a 3rd time, it'll be next year or the year after, cuz' I"m getting too old for this ****. :)

That interview with Karl is awesome.

For a guy with the expertise and experience of Karl to say that Maine is harder than Hardock 100 and way more technical is saying something given Hardrock 100 is considered the hardest 100 (outside of Barkley).

A bit after 4 pm, and it looks like Jurek has made it into the Chairbacks -- nearing Third Mountain, so make it 23.7 miles in about 10 hours. Has 31.6 miles to go to Kokadjo-B Pond Rd, if that's his destination tonight.

He seems to more or less be staying on a workable pace, grinding away!

I kind of see where you're coming through, and it's interesting to consider the possibilities. However, getting the "Fastest Known Time" for the AT down from 46.4 days down to 33 days represents an almost 30% improvement. That would be pretty incredible in any endurance sport. Be honest: Scott Jurek, Karl Meltzer and Pharr Davis may not be at the very top of the current crop of ultramarathoners, but of current world athletes, who could be 30% faster than Jurek over a "course" like this? In the marathon, you haven't seen a 30% drop in times over the last 100 years...

With regard to athleticism and training, I agree this much: you don't necessarily see much systematic or "scientific" training for thru hikes. "Hike your own hike" is sort of a mantra in the backpacking community. When preparing for a long distance hike, folks train to succeed subjectively on their own terms, not objectively to beat someone else's time over the same trail. But even if you're working yourself into shape, that is a kind of training. Go hike 20 miles a day on the AT for a month carrying a loaded backpack, and see if you don't notice a pronounced training effect.

I would compare potential results more with historical marathon times. In 2011, we see Geoffrey Mutai run a 2:03:02 to win the Boston Marathon, which had almost 27,000 participants. In 1911, Clarence Demar ran a 2:21:39 beating a field of 142 participants. Modern, scientific, systematic training improvements over the past 100 years have lowered Boston Marathon times by 18:37, around a 13 percent improvement. By comparison, that would be around 6 days off of a 46.4 day AT record. I could see a 40 day AT as within the realm of possibility -- though that would mean close to 55 mpd.

In any case, I've enjoyed following Jurek in this effort. It has a unique charm, precisely because he's doing it for himself. That is, no group "sanctions" his effort, no one gives him a monetary prize or medal if he does get the FKT. I'm not sure what I think about this sort of thing becoming a real "sport" or even what that would mean.

Columbus Mtn summit, 89 miles to go. And he's carefully picking up speed. I'm seeing paces from 2.0 - 4.0 mph. Good job Scott!

Fogrunr wrote:

Columbus Mtn summit, 89 miles to go. And he's carefully picking up speed. I'm seeing paces from 2.0 - 4.0 mph. Good job Scott!

Gosh, it's going to be close

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