THREE KENYANS BANNED FOR DOPING

I know you know that it was Berlin where he ran 2:04:55, but just pointing that out for others who wouldn't know.

Tergat, like Geb, got the hang of the marathon after his best days were behind him. If he had been focused on the marathon five years earlier when he was still well capable of running 10000m inside 27 minutes, he could have run a lot faster. Same for Gebrselassie. They ran at a time when you could make a living as a 10000m runner and only committed to the marathon once they couldn't cut it with the young kids anymore.

Now, with 10000m running basically limited to a single or maybe two meets a year with the purpose of getting qualification times for the Olympics or World Championships, and the availability of major marathon money that wasn't there even fifteen years ago, young 20 somethings who in the 90s might have been running 10000m at Hengelo, Ostrava and Brussels are now running halves and marathons. When you look at names like Sammy Kipketer, Richard Limo, Assefa Mezegebu, Albert Chepkurui, John Korir, Paul Koech, and Abebe Dinkesa, you see very talented, fast 10000m runners that weren't going to be Olympic or World Champions on the track, but could have been incredible marathon runners had they not waited until their best days were behind them to focus on it.

We basically have those guys today bypassing their track careers for the marathon. You saw it with Sammy Wanjiru, running a world junior record of 26:41 in 2005, but turning full time to the marathon and half marathon after that.

Doesnt_Take_a_Genius wrote:

That argument does not hold water. Money has been there in the Marathon for 30 years. With inflation, it was probably more money than is available now. Track racing had the same structure it does now also.

Bullshit.

What did you get for winning the Boston Marathon thirty years ago?

Thirty years ago where was:

Dubai Marathon

Mumbai Marathon

Toronto Waterfront Marathon

Daegu Marathon

JoongAng Seoul Marathon

Eindhoven Marathon

Hong Kong Marathon

Macau Marathon

Prague Marathon

Reims Marathon

Hamburg Marathon

Vienna City Marathon

Düsseldorf Marathon

Hannover Marathon

Venice Marathon

Shanghai Marathon

Bangkok Marathon

Kuala Lumpur Marathon

Xiamen International Marathon

Nagano Commemorative Marathon

Lisbon Half Marathon

Delhi Half Marathon

Prague Half Marathon

RAK Half Marathon

Bogotá International Half Marathon

New York City Half Marathon

Boston Half Marathon (and their series)

The whole BUPA Great Run Series

last time Geb ran sub 27 was in 2008 well into his marathon career.

Hi rekrunner,I see you've taken a stab at a mechanism for Renato's arguments. I'm not sure it is really consistent with his claims. Your claim (correct me if I am wrong) is that Kenyans (Ethiopians, too, I would guess) have genetic adaptations that mean that EPO is not effective. Renato apparently believes EPO would work on "lesser" talents who are running 2:07. It is only the top talents that he claims that EPO does not work for. Do you believe that somehow the top Kenyans have different genetics or different epigenetics than those of lesser talent? Of course both of your claims could be overlapping if the basis is that the benefits fade out for those who are already near or at their limit. I have also conceded that is a theoretical possibility.Of course one possibility that we haven't talked about is that the drugs are not effective for the super-elite runners but they continue to take them anyway. I believe there is a lot of anecdotal evidence from the supplement industry that athletes will take a lot of things without any real assurance that they work. The placebo effect is a powerful thing.

yyy wrote:

last time Geb ran sub 27 was in 2008 well into his marathon career.

And he ran 2:03:59 that year. But he was still over 40 and well past his prime.

Thanks for keeping me honest. Yeah I meant 2003 Berlin, not London.

I also wanted to, but forgot to link where I got the data. These links haven't been updated lately, so a lot of 2012 and 2013 times aren't there:

Times ranked "absolutely":

http://www.arrs.net/AllTime/AL_Mara.htm

Times ranked by removing bias:

http://www.arrs.net/AllTime/ATB_Mara.htm

A little more rhetoric then. If you look at an athlete's blood profile, learn what a drug like EPO does and conclude that EPO will not work for that particular athlete based on his/her blood profile and your understanding of how EPO would interact with them, you have an opinion. It may be a very strongly held opinion but it's still an opinion and it's not the same as knowing.

KNOWING that EPO will not work for a particular kind of athlete requires actually giving EPO to that kind of athlete. And that is illegal regardless of whether it made the athlete faster or not. Now it may be that someone for whom English is not a first language may not understand the linguistic difference between expressing an opinion and having knowledge and might want to re-phrase their claim. But that's just an opinion.

I read Renato's claim more along the lines of "I know that my athletes don't dope, and they run times equal to or better than the world's best, so I don't expect EPO to improve their performances." If you know your athletes are clean and yet they're consistently the best in the world, better than a number of athletes who presumably ARE doping, then you have to suspect that EPO would not measurably improve your athletes' performance. Now, as to whether Renato actually knows his athletes are clean? That's another question entirely. But his position is logical IF he does know his athletes are clean for a certainty.

Oh yeah Tergat and Geb were washed up...

Geb was running 26:5x on the track while focusing on the marathon and wearing flats!!

You guys will ignore what is right in front of you - the fact that people regularly debut faster than incredibly good legendary marathoners were running in the MODERN era.

I bet you think that guys like Steve Mullins were just naturally better than Carl Lewis because Carl didn't 'have to' run faster.

Agree. But for years when all sorts of people were agreeing that Lance Armstrong was clean while winning all those Tour de Frances I would tell them that he could not be clean and winning like he was in a sport as dirty as cycling is. Different sports, I know, but not so different.

I have asked Renato before how he knows his athletes are clean and never really gotten an answer. He is not with them all the time and cannot know what they're doing when they aren't with him. I know or know of a few coaches who had athletes caught doping and who would have sworn that those athletes were clean. So theoretically I agree with you but practically cannot believe that he can know his athletes are clean with certainty.

You say he would have to "suspect" that EPO would not measurably improve his athletes performances. That's a reasonable thing to suspect in such a situation. But suspecting is not knowing.

And it's bad science.

pseudoscience detector wrote:

brain fried? wrote:

ACTUALLY there is a ton of science on this - and you're just ignorant.

Can you point to any scientific information underlying your point of view? Or are you just a conspiracy quack?

And it's bad science.

Scientific information supporting the view that higher heart rates with lower plasma volume (and relaitive increase in red cell volume) together with increased stroke volume contribute to higher oxygen delivery?

Here is a basic outline:

http://www.sport-fitness-advisor.com/cardiovascular-system-and-exercise.html

My point is that with improved oxygen economy, and improved endurance, which are the main determinates of what makes the difference between well trained and world class, you can always have a reserve of oxygen delivery at your disposal.

With a treadmill VO2 test, you will not get the same surge of adrenalin at the end as you do in a race you know you can win, so I suspect this phenomenon is difficult to test.

Also a VO2max test is designed in a certain way which may or may not be a true test of the runner's ability.

If plasma volume is very high during the test, how can a true VO2 max be measured?

And I would also like to point out that these arguments have been going on for over 40 years and that people will tend to believe the quacks over the basic physiology, such that the pseudoscientific dogma has become ingrained in the minds of exercise physiologists also.

Yeah exactly. It's why I leave open the possibility of one or more of all of the above (well below).I think that it's not settled they aren't different, either by natural selection, or by a lifelong in high altitude.And/or, the faster they are, the less potential for unnatural improvements.

I think Renato's on record many times as saying he doesn't have direct proof (like everyone else), because he (nor any scientist) ever blood-doped top-athletes. I think he's made it clear that his statement is a strong opinion based on experiences, but not confirmed with direct proof (because he is against it, and his athletes are too).But he has done other tests that show their red blood cells are bigger, and not more numerous. Too complex for me. But I certainly don't have his experiences or knowledge to be able to contradict anything. I only read summaries of studies that others find, or read books.

HRE wrote:

A little more rhetoric then. If you look at an athlete's blood profile, learn what a drug like EPO does and conclude that EPO will not work for that particular athlete based on his/her blood profile and your understanding of how EPO would interact with them, you have an opinion. It may be a very strongly held opinion but it's still an opinion and it's not the same as knowing.

KNOWING that EPO will not work for a particular kind of athlete requires actually giving EPO to that kind of athlete. And that is illegal regardless of whether it made the athlete faster or not. Now it may be that someone for whom English is not a first language may not understand the linguistic difference between expressing an opinion and having knowledge and might want to re-phrase their claim. But that's just an opinion.

Years to date after the Soviets, East Germans, and Chinese were exposed for dopping, they have never been able to produce the same results from that era. If you believe that there is WIDESPREAD dopping in Kenya and Ethiopia, then you would predict that in the next 5-10 years, you will rarely see them win anything from 800m to marathon. If I were a betting man, I would be willing to bet you that this is not going to happen. The worst case scenario is that the times will not be as low as they have been but only a fool would bet that a Kenyan or Ethiopian will not take some top spots in the next couple of years.

If this year is any reflection of things to come, several Kenyans & Ethiopians have already worn a couple of races all over the world (see Letsrun home page). Course records continue to come down (see Tokyo Marathon last week). Moreover, Kimetto says he is willing to challenge the world record if he runs Berlin. I would say if Kimetto was dopping, he would be very foolish to say these kind of things to the media. My prediction is that this year will be not any different that the previous couple of years for these two nation. What I dislike is people saying, " There is widespread dopping, but I have no evidence or names, I just have a gut feeling".

Well - I gotta admit this reminds me a bit of the 2012 olympics in the actually most competitive aerobic dominant flat events.

1500 - no kenyan medals, not really close.

5000 - a single bronze, one guy doesn't even make final

10000- no medals, only one guy even with the lead pack when the real racing starts

marathon - hugely favored 'super team' produces silver and bronze, 4min+ off of what people projected they could run.

I think this is about where they SHOULD be minus doping. They are one of the strongest countries in running - but not nearly as dominant as the rampantly unregulated cheating they do would suggest.

pseudoscience detector wrote:

I suspect this phenomenon is difficult to test.

Oh yeah - you definitely are very scientifically literate. It just turns out that your magic ideas are difficult to test. But you KNOW they are true. Why do you believe things that are untested and untestable are true? Well - because you want to believe them.

Get a grip.