You’re not being “consistent,” you’re just making your argument unfalsifiable. By your logic, nothing Jakob has ever done can tell us anything about how he’d handle Hocker’s Tokyo splits, because every prior race is a “different context.” That’s not analysis. Track has always used prior races to assess what athletes are capable of in new situations. That’s why people point to Jakob's times when discussing his ceiling, and why Hocker’s 12:58 is rightly celebrated. If we dismiss every data point as irrelevant context, then we may as well never compare anyone across eras, races, or conditions. The Florence 12:48 wasn’t some random time trial, it directly answers the question of whether Jakob could handle a 7:52/5:06 finish. He’s literally done better (7:46/5:02). That’s not cherry-picking, that’s evidence. You can keep saying “we don’t know,” but the numbers all point in the same direction: a healthy Jakob has more ways to win than Hocker has shown. Nothing wrong with that. It seems like you are taking offense to the premise of the thread, which is fine. OP was rude in saying his win was an asterisk.
I extend to you the same invitation I gave to freekiprop in post 138.
Instead of looking at very different past contexts which don't apply to how the race was run in Tokyo, imagine inserting 2024 Jakob into Tokyo in the way the race actually transpired.
We know from Fisher's post-race interview that he was determined to make it an honest race. So let's pick up the race at the 3k mark where Fisher has the lead in 7:51. Where exactly do you envision Jakob at that point in the race, and what exactly do you think he does from there? Take us through it, in detail.
As I noted earlier in this thread, Hocker said he had jetlag and other issues in Stockholm which made that race not indicative of his fitness at the time. As you yourself acknowledged, Hocker was in the best shape of his life in Tokyo, so I'm not sure why you're bringing up a race he did three months ago.
As for Peak Jakob winning every type of 5k race, he never beat Tokyo '25 Hocker in those races. Peak Jakob previously beating a bunch of other runners doesn't mean he would have beaten Tokyo '25 Hocker.
Hocker being in the best shape of his life could only finish four seconds ahead of Jakob being in the worst shape of his life. I'm pretty sure Jakob being in peak shape can improve by more than 4 seconds compared to this 5000 final.
I extend to you the same invitation I gave to freekiprop in post 138.
Instead of looking at very different past contexts which don't apply to how the race was run in Tokyo, imagine inserting 2024 Jakob into Tokyo in the way the race actually transpired.
We know from Fisher's post-race interview that he was determined to make it an honest race. So let's pick up the race at the 3k mark where Fisher has the lead in 7:51. Where exactly do you envision Jakob at that point in the race, and what exactly do you think he does from there? Take us through it, in detail.
Another red herring, so boring. Goodbye.
Disappointing response, snowflakes. If you're so confident that 2024 Jakob would have won the race in Tokyo the way it was run, you should be able to explain exactly how. Maybe you can sleep on it and then come back to tell us how the race played out in your dreams.
This post was edited 14 minutes after it was posted.
Hocker being in the best shape of his life could only finish four seconds ahead of Jakob being in the worst shape of his life. I'm pretty sure Jakob being in peak shape can improve by more than 4 seconds compared to this 5000 final.
Don't most of you think JI in peak shape is able to run ~12:33 or even below?
If so -I'm not refusing nor accepting that premise, just don't have a clue- where is the debate?
Of course not only Hocker, but no one, could be near him in the last two laps.
I think Jakob was in 12:33-34 shape, while Hocker is in 12:36-39.
In a championship, Jakob wouldn't be able to run away from Hocker if he attempts to make it fast himself, because there wouldn't be any drafting (800dude has mentioned) for him, so it would still come down to the last lap, and at that point, Jakob would get swallowed by Hocker or even more guys like he did in the 1500m last year.
Bringing it out with a mile to go may be better, but let's not forget Cole is also a 3:27 guy, so his speed endurance is pretty close to Jakob. Tbh, I think it's less about what Jakob can do than waiting for Cole to screw up his tactics which is a real possibility, I mean...well, he just did it in the 1500 semi didn't he? I literally lol-ed when I saw someone say he had great tactics in the 5k. Actually his positioning was terrible, compared to Jakob in Budapest where he got everything perfect tactic-wise, that's why he had to go through all that traffic from 12th - 1st. He's just so good on that day no one could've beaten him there.
Again, Hocker is just so much better than the guys Jakob had to face between 2022 and 24. The closest one was Katir. That race was also indeed close, much closer than Hocker to Kimeli. That said, Jakob might have over-extended in the 1500m so he underperformed there, but still that's the only race he closed faster than Hocker (traffic aside), and he already got everything right and that's 13 secs slower in finish time.
He could beat anyone if the pace is not hot. If they allow him to be there with 300, like they always allowed Mo Farah to be, to go he shouldn't get beaten
On the other hand if the pace is close to world best he gets beaten by several
He could beat anyone if the pace is not hot. If they allow him to be there with 300, like they always allowed Mo Farah to be, to go he shouldn't get beaten
On the other hand if the pace is close to world best he gets beaten by several
thing is, it's just not quite possible in championship setting. Fisher admitted he wanted to keep the spicy pace going, but didn't have it in the legs at 61 per lap. No interviews from Gebriwet, another guy pushing at the front along with Fisher and Young, but apparently his last lap was in 62 or 63 secs so.....
Trying to burn the kick out of kickers just burns yourself down, more often than not, unless you have a crystal clear advantage over the rest of the field, like Bekele in Beijing or Komen in WC 97 (absence from Geb, as they still had rounds in the 10000m). Which wouldn't be the case between Hocker and Jakob, assuming in peak shape.
Don't most of you think JI in peak shape is able to run ~12:33 or even below?
If so -I'm not refusing nor accepting that premise, just don't have a clue- where is the debate?
Of course not only Hocker, but no one, could be near him in the last two laps.
I think Jakob was in 12:33-34 shape, while Hocker is in 12:36-39.
In a championship, Jakob wouldn't be able to run away from Hocker if he attempts to make it fast himself, because there wouldn't be any drafting (800dude has mentioned) for him, so it would still come down to the last lap, and at that point, Jakob would get swallowed by Hocker or even more guys like he did in the 1500m last year.
Bringing it out with a mile to go may be better, but let's not forget Cole is also a 3:27 guy, so his speed endurance is pretty close to Jakob. Tbh, I think it's less about what Jakob can do than waiting for Cole to screw up his tactics which is a real possibility, I mean...well, he just did it in the 1500 semi didn't he? I literally lol-ed when I saw someone say he had great tactics in the 5k. Actually his positioning was terrible, compared to Jakob in Budapest where he got everything perfect tactic-wise, that's why he had to go through all that traffic from 12th - 1st. He's just so good on that day no one could've beaten him there.
Again, Hocker is just so much better than the guys Jakob had to face between 2022 and 24. The closest one was Katir. That race was also indeed close, much closer than Hocker to Kimeli. That said, Jakob might have over-extended in the 1500m so he underperformed there, but still that's the only race he closed faster than Hocker (traffic aside), and he already got everything right and that's 13 secs slower in finish time.
Hocker is a 3:27 dude when he gets paced for 1400 meters. When he didn't get paced for 1400 meters, in the DL race he ran a few weeks later, he went back to running 3:29 high.
That's not a good reason, all 10 laps before the final 2 laps for Hocker were faster than Jakob's early laps. He was a full second per lap faster, going an average of 64 seconds per lap in Hocker's race compared to 65 seconds per lap in Jakob's fastest race. So I don't care if Jakob ran a 62 second lap at 1200 or 1600 to go when Hocker was running an average of 64 the whole time.
slight correction, that's sub-63 the whole time. ;)
It's only sub 63 the whole time after you include his 1:52 final 800. The first 10 laps were average of 64 and change
I think Jakob was in 12:33-34 shape, while Hocker is in 12:36-39.
In a championship, Jakob wouldn't be able to run away from Hocker if he attempts to make it fast himself, because there wouldn't be any drafting (800dude has mentioned) for him, so it would still come down to the last lap, and at that point, Jakob would get swallowed by Hocker or even more guys like he did in the 1500m last year.
Bringing it out with a mile to go may be better, but let's not forget Cole is also a 3:27 guy, so his speed endurance is pretty close to Jakob. Tbh, I think it's less about what Jakob can do than waiting for Cole to screw up his tactics which is a real possibility, I mean...well, he just did it in the 1500 semi didn't he? I literally lol-ed when I saw someone say he had great tactics in the 5k. Actually his positioning was terrible, compared to Jakob in Budapest where he got everything perfect tactic-wise, that's why he had to go through all that traffic from 12th - 1st. He's just so good on that day no one could've beaten him there.
Again, Hocker is just so much better than the guys Jakob had to face between 2022 and 24. The closest one was Katir. That race was also indeed close, much closer than Hocker to Kimeli. That said, Jakob might have over-extended in the 1500m so he underperformed there, but still that's the only race he closed faster than Hocker (traffic aside), and he already got everything right and that's 13 secs slower in finish time.
Hocker is a 3:27 dude when he gets paced for 1400 meters. When he didn't get paced for 1400 meters, in the DL race he ran a few weeks later, he went back to running 3:29 high.
well, Jakob also got paced through 1100 and didn't have to pass anybody in his 3:26...
Hocker is a 3:27 dude when he gets paced for 1400 meters. When he didn't get paced for 1400 meters, in the DL race he ran a few weeks later, he went back to running 3:29 high.
well, Jakob also got paced through 1100 and didn't have to pass anybody in his 3:26...
Yes, Jakob is indeed faster than Hocker even when Hocker got the best pacing you can possibly get. And Jakob has run 17 (seventeen) times that are faster than Hockers second fastest time.
well, Jakob also got paced through 1100 and didn't have to pass anybody in his 3:26...
Yes, Jakob is indeed faster than Hocker even when Hocker got the best pacing you can possibly get. And Jakob has run 17 (seventeen) times that are faster than Hockers second fastest time.
so that's like 1 sec better. Wow, that makes a lot of difference in a 5k where if Jakob uses the proposed strategy - that is, bringing it out from 1 mile to go - and the 1600 is finished in 3:54 (or 3:37-38 pace) for a 3:27 guy!(remember, Hocker would surely be the one being paced there)
Don't most of you think JI in peak shape is able to run ~12:33 or even below?
If so -I'm not refusing nor accepting that premise, just don't have a clue- where is the debate?
Of course not only Hocker, but no one, could be near him in the last two laps.
I think Jakob was in 12:33-34 shape, while Hocker is in 12:36-39.
In a championship, Jakob wouldn't be able to run away from Hocker if he attempts to make it fast himself, because there wouldn't be any drafting (800dude has mentioned) for him, so it would still come down to the last lap, and at that point, Jakob would get swallowed by Hocker or even more guys like he did in the 1500m last year.
Bringing it out with a mile to go may be better, but let's not forget Cole is also a 3:27 guy, so his speed endurance is pretty close to Jakob. Tbh, I think it's less about what Jakob can do than waiting for Cole to screw up his tactics which is a real possibility, I mean...well, he just did it in the 1500 semi didn't he? I literally lol-ed when I saw someone say he had great tactics in the 5k. Actually his positioning was terrible, compared to Jakob in Budapest where he got everything perfect tactic-wise, that's why he had to go through all that traffic from 12th - 1st. He's just so good on that day no one could've beaten him there.
Again, Hocker is just so much better than the guys Jakob had to face between 2022 and 24. The closest one was Katir. That race was also indeed close, much closer than Hocker to Kimeli. That said, Jakob might have over-extended in the 1500m so he underperformed there, but still that's the only race he closed faster than Hocker (traffic aside), and he already got everything right and that's 13 secs slower in finish time.
Jakob was sick and Katir was juiced out of his mind. And you can just reverse your logic to say that Jakob in 2024 is not even close to Isaac Kimeli or Jimmy Gressier?
The OP stated, "For me, his 5k win has an asterisk. I can't crown him as the best unless he beats Peak Jakob." Sounds like discrediting to me.
The OP got ratioed for discrediting Hocker, so you’re crying about nothing. If anything, Jakob is the one being disrespected. He’s on the level of Bekele and Farah and people are questioning if he could’ve won this year. You even tried to give Hocker credit for beating him when he’s a shell of himself, which is about as dumb as giving Nader credit for beating Kerr.
Imagine if someone started a thread asking if El G could’ve beaten Nader, and several posters argued in the negative because we never saw him close a 3:34 in 51 or 12.2 or whatever. That’s the level of stupid you guys are approaching.
I think Jakob was in 12:33-34 shape, while Hocker is in 12:36-39.
In a championship, Jakob wouldn't be able to run away from Hocker if he attempts to make it fast himself, because there wouldn't be any drafting (800dude has mentioned) for him, so it would still come down to the last lap, and at that point, Jakob would get swallowed by Hocker or even more guys like he did in the 1500m last year.
Bringing it out with a mile to go may be better, but let's not forget Cole is also a 3:27 guy, so his speed endurance is pretty close to Jakob. Tbh, I think it's less about what Jakob can do than waiting for Cole to screw up his tactics which is a real possibility, I mean...well, he just did it in the 1500 semi didn't he? I literally lol-ed when I saw someone say he had great tactics in the 5k. Actually his positioning was terrible, compared to Jakob in Budapest where he got everything perfect tactic-wise, that's why he had to go through all that traffic from 12th - 1st. He's just so good on that day no one could've beaten him there.
Again, Hocker is just so much better than the guys Jakob had to face between 2022 and 24. The closest one was Katir. That race was also indeed close, much closer than Hocker to Kimeli. That said, Jakob might have over-extended in the 1500m so he underperformed there, but still that's the only race he closed faster than Hocker (traffic aside), and he already got everything right and that's 13 secs slower in finish time.
Jakob was sick and Katir was juiced out of his mind. And you can just reverse your logic to say that Jakob in 2024 is not even close to Isaac Kimeli or Jimmy Gressier?
Also incredible you’re sticking with 12:36
That's what he said. I'm a Jakob stan, but that doesn't mean I necessarily believe everything he says. He said after Paris 1500m, he wanted to win in an honorable way, that's why he front-ran, but you never saw him do that in his 5k wins.
As for Katir, I mentioned him because he's the closest competition Jakob could ever get before this year. Tbh, I never care if they dope or not, I watch sports for fun. That's why I have no problem with all the speculations on Hocker. I wouldn't shock me if he uses something, same as anybody.
yeah, because no human can close a 5k in 52.6 on outer lane (which would be faster than his 800 PR), if he isn't already in far better shape than the time indicates. 13:05 pace has to be very comfortable for him, so comfortable, he could toy with the field like that.
This post was edited 2 minutes after it was posted.
Yes, Jakob is indeed faster than Hocker even when Hocker got the best pacing you can possibly get. And Jakob has run 17 (seventeen) times that are faster than Hockers second fastest time.
so that's like 1 sec better. Wow, that makes a lot of difference in a 5k where if Jakob uses the proposed strategy - that is, bringing it out from 1 mile to go - and the 1600 is finished in 3:54 (or 3:37-38 pace) for a 3:27 guy!(remember, Hocker would surely be the one being paced there)
I'm just saying it's disingenuous to call someone a 3:27 guy when they can't come within two seconds of that time because they ran it in the best scenario you can possibly get.
And yes, Jakob has beaten much better 5000 runners than Hocker using that strategy, what has Hocker shown that supposedly makes him a 12:36 guy? Him finishing 4 seconds ahead of Jakob who hasn't been able to train properly until a few weeks before the race?
so that's like 1 sec better. Wow, that makes a lot of difference in a 5k where if Jakob uses the proposed strategy - that is, bringing it out from 1 mile to go - and the 1600 is finished in 3:54 (or 3:37-38 pace) for a 3:27 guy!(remember, Hocker would surely be the one being paced there)
I'm just saying it's disingenuous to call someone a 3:27 guy when they can't come within two seconds of that time because they ran it in the best scenario you can possibly get.
And yes, Jakob has beaten much better 5000 runners than Hocker using that strategy, what has Hocker shown that supposedly makes him a 12:36 guy? Him finishing 4 seconds ahead of Jakob who hasn't been able to train properly until a few weeks before the race?
then it's also disingenuous to call Jakob a 3:26 guy when his non-paced PR is 3:28
Curious_Cat wrote: because no human can close a 5k in 52.6 on outer lane (which would be faster than his 800 PR), if he isn't already in far better shape than the time indicates. 13:05 pace has to be very comfortable for him, so comfortable, he could toy with the field like that.
McRunnin wrote: Those 4 seconds all came on the final lap.
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