Here is a region-by-region look.
I have 47 teams total:
21 Locks
4 Should be In
23 Bubble
East
Locks: Tufts, MIT
Bubble: Bates, Colby, WPI
Great season so far from Tufts.
All three bubble teams have various wins over fellow bubble teams. I'd say 3rd place has a great shot, 4th is teetering on the edge. Should be pretty tight.
Great Lakes
Lock: Hope
Bubble: John Carroll, Otterbein, Case Western
Hope is a lock after Augie and Blugold performances even if they choke the auto bid.
I see it being really hard for any of the bubble teams getting in because they just don't have the wins. Case has the best win over Colby, and they should definitely be cheering them on to do well in the East.
I don't really see a path forward for Otterbein and JCU unless big upsets in other regions from fellow teams with no good wins. They are ranked above Case now in the Regional Rankings so I gotta include them.
Metro
Bubble: TCNJ, Haverford, Swarthmore, Moravian, Rowan
This is a really interesting region. I don't know if it is going to be able to get more than 1 bid though. The top 5 teams have all lost to each other this year.
It has been an amazing turnaround for Haverford and TCNJ after a horrible Paul Short race. Haverford lost to Swarthmore, Moravian and Rowan at Paul Short and TCNJ lost to Haverford. Haverford beat Rowan and Moravian at Rowan, and then got past Swarthmore at Centennials. They are trending very up relative to the region.
TCNJ followed this up with a great Conn race with a win over a likely national team in CMS, and some other relevant bubble teams from other regions (Bates, Dickinson, WPI).
I like Haverford to win this region due to their history and trend this season. Swarthmore has some wins over fellow bubble teams from Paul Short, so they certainly have a chance at-large, and TCNJ definitely has a shot with their win over CMS.
Moravian and Rowan are almost certainly out without a top 2 performance.
Mid-Atlantic
Locks: Johns Hopkins, Carnegie Mellon
Should be in: Lebanon Valley
Bubble: Dickinson, Messiah, Salisbury
JHU and CMU should run away from the field in this one, and have done more thane enough this year to qualify. Good to see this region get much better in the 3-6 range.
Lebanon Valley is looking secure with their Paul Short performance. I'm not ready to lock them up as a 4th place finish may not be enough if Dickinson doesn't qualify on their own merit.
Dickinson has got a shot with a lot of wins over fellow bubble teams at Paul Short, but their Conn and Centennials don't help them. It will help that they have a win over the likely Metro champion.
Messiah isn't in a great spot, but they weren't far off Lebanon Valley at MACs, and have a win against Haverford and TCNJ. Salisbury is in a worse spot, but wasn't far off these teams at Rowan.
Mideast:
Locks: Williams, RPI, Amherst, Wesleyan, Middlebury
Bubble: St. Lawrence
The top 5 in the Mideast look qualified. Too far ahead of St. Lawrence, and all have wins over very likely national teams.
St. Lawrence has (like many other fringier bubble teams) a saving grace with wins over Haverford and TCNJ, the Metro favorites.
I don't like that they are behind a lot of teams at Paul Short, and they didn't get any good wins from Conn. Going to be hard, but not impossible.
Midwest:
Locks: Wartburg, UChicago, North Central
Should be In: WashU
Bubble: Loras
I'm keeping Loras on the bubble because I have them as the 29th team in right now, but they have a large amount of wins from Paul Short (including Wesleyan and Middlebury) , so I really like their odds.
WashU has no losses to bubble teams so is also very likely in, but since they could feasibly lose to Loras (who did lose to a few bubble teams at Augie), I'm not going to quite lock them up.
Niagara
Locks: SUNY Geneseo, NYU
The most boring region. RIT is the #3 team, and they realistically do not have a chance with no good out-of-region wins. They did beat John Carroll, but the bubble is too full with teams that beat the likely Metro Region champion to really give them a shot. It is very likely all teams selected have a win over a team in the field (not always the case).
North
Locks: UW-La Crosse, UW-Platteville, UW-Stevens Point
Should be In: St. Olaf
Bubble: UW-Whitewater, UW-Oshkosh, UW-Eau Claire
Always a super competitive one. Platteville almost certainly headed to their first national meet in 10 years. Weird to see Whitewater on the bubble.
St. Olaf has a good win over a lock (Lynchburg) and many other bubble teams (i.e. CMS, TCNJ, Dickinson, Colby). They have a great shot, but I'm not locking them since they could lose to the bubble teams very feasibly.
Whitewater helped themselves a lot at Augie and if they can hold the line against Oshkosh and Eau Claire, they are very likely.
Oshkosh is squarely on the edge. I see them as a 50/50 team right now. Eau Claire is fringe, but has a shot if they get 5th.
South
Locks: W&L, Lynchburg
Bubble: Emory
I don't see W&L and Lynchburg getting lower than 2nd, so I can't see them missing the field after they both were 4th and 5th at Paul Short White.
Emory has beaten TCNJ and Haverford, but were kind of on the lower end of the bubble battles at Paul Short and Rowan. I think they really need teams like Messiah and Moravian to upset teams like Dickinson and Swarthmore to get in.
I say that because they are 1-1 v Messiah, 2-0 v Moravian but 0-1 and 0-2 to Dickinson and Swarthmore. I can't see them anything else but 3rd here, so really just going to be about watching other regions for them.
West
Locks: Pomona-Pitzer
Should be In: Colorado College
Bubble: CMS, UC Santa Cruz, George Fox
Colorado College was the best of the bubble at Paul Short and Augie. A 4th place finish here could make them nervous though.
CMS is getting a huge benefit from counting Prenats this year with their win over W&L. They were poor at Conn, so I think they are still pretty bubbly. Likely in if they hold the line.
Santa Cruz got some good bubble wins over Loras, Eau Claire and Oshkosh that give them a solid shot. They are right on the edge of the field.
I'm keeping George Fox in here because of a win over TCNJ and they haven't competed against good D3 comp since Paul Short so you never really know.