Long term forecast callas for temps in the upper 60’s. California schools rejoice. Will this be the downfall of the northern teams? Should selectors take that into account when choosing qualifiers? Seems like a good argument for more West Region teams. And if that’s the case do we really need to race so early?
I don't think the Northern teams will struggle. It will be upper 50's and close to 60 at the North Region meet. It will even be low 50's at the Niagara Region meet. Historically it has been around 20's to 30's or lower at these meets, I do not believe this will have such a great effect as some might think. What do we think of the course tho? I haven't heard or seen much about it.
I knew about Ramadan, which makes his indoor nationals performance THAT much more impressive I don't argue with his reasoning. Anyone in his situation or not in his situation should do the same thing. Chase the bag and live the dream, who cares about random D3 dual meets in indoor or outdoor.
Word on the street is that Mo will run a marathon in December after nationals. Will he not focus on indoor? Also does anyone know what happened last outdoor? My thinking is that he was mostly focusing on the Gary Bjorkland Half rather than NCAAs
He is in the elite field for CIM in December per other (MIAC) threads.
I also know that he has a lot more to deal with then the typical D3 athlete so I'm not sure if it was financial, academic or family issues that kept him from racing outdoor season, and if I did know that wouldn't be my information to share.
I wouldn't expect a big indoor season regardless. He would probably never say it, but his 2025 indoor Nationals performance last year was definitely impacted by Ramadan and in 2026, nationals are like 3 weeks into Ramadan and again he'd be going into an afternoon race on a whole morning of fasting.
I'd have to call and ask him about outdoor, but I'm also not sure he enjoys running in circles as much as cross country or the roads. I suspect it depends on how he does at CIM. If he runs anything close to 2:10, he might skip outdoor in favor of a spring marathon. (ex. if BAA would put him up and even give him ~$1k to run, that is probably a week and a half or more of work, plus the chance at prize money. Tough to turn that down in favor of a Wednesday meet with no competition)
Seems like he doesn't enjoy track as much and the focus in on a fast marathon at CIM.
Can we talk about how little research D3 Glory Days did with there East Regional preview? Tyler Bolaske predicted to finish outside the top 10 is genuinely laughable. It’s clear they only care about the ranked teams and only care about the individuals that have previously been to the national meet.
All three bubble teams have various wins over fellow bubble teams. I'd say 3rd place has a great shot, 4th is teetering on the edge. Should be pretty tight.
Great Lakes Lock: Hope Bubble: John Carroll, Otterbein, Case Western
Hope is a lock after Augie and Blugold performances even if they choke the auto bid. I see it being really hard for any of the bubble teams getting in because they just don't have the wins. Case has the best win over Colby, and they should definitely be cheering them on to do well in the East.
I don't really see a path forward for Otterbein and JCU unless big upsets in other regions from fellow teams with no good wins. They are ranked above Case now in the Regional Rankings so I gotta include them.
Metro Bubble: TCNJ, Haverford, Swarthmore, Moravian, Rowan
This is a really interesting region. I don't know if it is going to be able to get more than 1 bid though. The top 5 teams have all lost to each other this year. It has been an amazing turnaround for Haverford and TCNJ after a horrible Paul Short race. Haverford lost to Swarthmore, Moravian and Rowan at Paul Short and TCNJ lost to Haverford. Haverford beat Rowan and Moravian at Rowan, and then got past Swarthmore at Centennials. They are trending very up relative to the region.
TCNJ followed this up with a great Conn race with a win over a likely national team in CMS, and some other relevant bubble teams from other regions (Bates, Dickinson, WPI).
I like Haverford to win this region due to their history and trend this season. Swarthmore has some wins over fellow bubble teams from Paul Short, so they certainly have a chance at-large, and TCNJ definitely has a shot with their win over CMS. Moravian and Rowan are almost certainly out without a top 2 performance.
Mid-Atlantic Locks: Johns Hopkins, Carnegie Mellon Should be in: Lebanon Valley Bubble: Dickinson, Messiah, Salisbury
JHU and CMU should run away from the field in this one, and have done more thane enough this year to qualify. Good to see this region get much better in the 3-6 range. Lebanon Valley is looking secure with their Paul Short performance. I'm not ready to lock them up as a 4th place finish may not be enough if Dickinson doesn't qualify on their own merit.
Dickinson has got a shot with a lot of wins over fellow bubble teams at Paul Short, but their Conn and Centennials don't help them. It will help that they have a win over the likely Metro champion.
Messiah isn't in a great spot, but they weren't far off Lebanon Valley at MACs, and have a win against Haverford and TCNJ. Salisbury is in a worse spot, but wasn't far off these teams at Rowan.
Mideast: Locks: Williams, RPI, Amherst, Wesleyan, Middlebury Bubble: St. Lawrence The top 5 in the Mideast look qualified. Too far ahead of St. Lawrence, and all have wins over very likely national teams. St. Lawrence has (like many other fringier bubble teams) a saving grace with wins over Haverford and TCNJ, the Metro favorites. I don't like that they are behind a lot of teams at Paul Short, and they didn't get any good wins from Conn. Going to be hard, but not impossible.
Midwest: Locks: Wartburg, UChicago, North Central Should be In: WashU Bubble: Loras I'm keeping Loras on the bubble because I have them as the 29th team in right now, but they have a large amount of wins from Paul Short (including Wesleyan and Middlebury) , so I really like their odds.
WashU has no losses to bubble teams so is also very likely in, but since they could feasibly lose to Loras (who did lose to a few bubble teams at Augie), I'm not going to quite lock them up.
Niagara Locks: SUNY Geneseo, NYU
The most boring region. RIT is the #3 team, and they realistically do not have a chance with no good out-of-region wins. They did beat John Carroll, but the bubble is too full with teams that beat the likely Metro Region champion to really give them a shot. It is very likely all teams selected have a win over a team in the field (not always the case).
North Locks: UW-La Crosse, UW-Platteville, UW-Stevens Point Should be In: St. Olaf Bubble: UW-Whitewater, UW-Oshkosh, UW-Eau Claire
Always a super competitive one. Platteville almost certainly headed to their first national meet in 10 years. Weird to see Whitewater on the bubble.
St. Olaf has a good win over a lock (Lynchburg) and many other bubble teams (i.e. CMS, TCNJ, Dickinson, Colby). They have a great shot, but I'm not locking them since they could lose to the bubble teams very feasibly.
Whitewater helped themselves a lot at Augie and if they can hold the line against Oshkosh and Eau Claire, they are very likely.
Oshkosh is squarely on the edge. I see them as a 50/50 team right now. Eau Claire is fringe, but has a shot if they get 5th.
South Locks: W&L, Lynchburg Bubble: Emory I don't see W&L and Lynchburg getting lower than 2nd, so I can't see them missing the field after they both were 4th and 5th at Paul Short White.
Emory has beaten TCNJ and Haverford, but were kind of on the lower end of the bubble battles at Paul Short and Rowan. I think they really need teams like Messiah and Moravian to upset teams like Dickinson and Swarthmore to get in.
I say that because they are 1-1 v Messiah, 2-0 v Moravian but 0-1 and 0-2 to Dickinson and Swarthmore. I can't see them anything else but 3rd here, so really just going to be about watching other regions for them.
West Locks: Pomona-Pitzer Should be In: Colorado College Bubble: CMS, UC Santa Cruz, George Fox
Colorado College was the best of the bubble at Paul Short and Augie. A 4th place finish here could make them nervous though.
CMS is getting a huge benefit from counting Prenats this year with their win over W&L. They were poor at Conn, so I think they are still pretty bubbly. Likely in if they hold the line. Santa Cruz got some good bubble wins over Loras, Eau Claire and Oshkosh that give them a solid shot. They are right on the edge of the field.
I'm keeping George Fox in here because of a win over TCNJ and they haven't competed against good D3 comp since Paul Short so you never really know.
At-Large (in order of likely selection) 1 - 12 UW-Platteville 2 - 8 RPI 3 - 9 UChicago 4 - 10 North Central 5 - 6 NYU 6 - 13 UW-Stevens Point 7 - 11 MIT 8 - 15 Amherst 9 - 23 Lynchburg 10 - 15 Carnegie Mellon 11 - 20 Wesleyan 12 - 22 Middlebury 13 - 24 Lebanon Valley 14 - 21 St. Olaf 15 - 25 Colorado College 16 - 19 WashU 17 - 29 Loras 18 - 26 UW-Whitewater 19 - 27 UC Santa Cruz 20 - RV CMS 21 - 28 Colby 22 - RV Case Western Reserve
First 4 out Dickinson Bates Swarthmore Emory
There is a really interesting battle for the last few spots. There is a bunch of teams that ran the Paul Short White race that end being the next-best team in their region to not get selected.
Those being (in order): Dickinson, Swarthmore, Emory, Bates, St. Lawrence, George Fox. The committee will consider these teams in order of finish since they hold the same number of wins (1 against TCNJ). Yet Case Western would get selected over all of them because of their win over Colby at Prenats on a weekend that usually ISN'T counted. It's important to note that Case Western hasn't gone to ANY other relevant meets, choosing the David Mullen invite and the Oberlin interregional over Paul Short/Blugold and other interregionals, respectively.
I've noticed that there are some teams that have performed wildly different at different weekends. CMS nearly won Prenats against North Central yet was 13th at Conn College. Colby lost by 100 points to CMS at Prenats but beat them at Conn College. TCNJ was 24th in the Paul Short White race, yet was 12th at Conn and is now ranked and a provisional favorite for the Metro region. I completely missed this in my first takeaways as others pointed out.
There definitely could be an effect from counting 3 interregional weekends instead of 2. Fringe bubble teams need to be at the their best more often now. There's other examples too.
The Metro region looks to be wide open between TCNJ, Swarthmore and Haverford. The Metro region will not only likely only give 1 winner, but will also be a key to several teams at large hopes. Swarthmore was 14th compared to Haverford's 22nd and TCNJ's 24th at Paul Short White.
A Haverford or TCNJ Metro win opens up a lot of East Coast teams like Bates, Dickinson, WPI, Emory, St. Lawrence, etc. (i.e. the teams that finished 14th-22nd) to have feasible national qualifying hopes (though still not good enough as of today)
Also, want to call out Lebanon Valley and Wesleyan (and kind of Case Western like mentioned above) for not running their A team at the interregional meets (Rowan and Conn). These teams likely skipped out to try to avoid getting any losses to fellow bubble teams. The scheduling formula part of national qualifying is a real thing. I understand it but its weak. Wesleyan isn't going to be able to avoid the competition at NESCAC next weekend, but Lebanon Valley is definitely qualified for their first national meet ever as long as they are 3rd at Mid-Atlantics. They have a very weak conference but getting 3rd at Mid-Atlantics is no guarantee with Dickinson close by.
After conferences, I have Colby and Case Western out of the field, and Bates, Haverford, Dickinson, UW-Oshkosh, Emory in a very close battle for the last 2 spots. This assumes USTFCCCA Regional Rankings hold, and running through the selection process if the season ended after conferences.
At-Large (in order of likely selection) 1 - 12 UW-Platteville 2 - 8 RPI 3 - 9 UChicago 4 - 10 North Central 5 - 6 NYU 6 - 13 UW-Stevens Point 7 - 11 MIT 8 - 15 Amherst 9 - 23 Lynchburg 10 - 15 Carnegie Mellon 11 - 20 Wesleyan 12 - 22 Middlebury 13 - 24 Lebanon Valley 14 - 21 St. Olaf 15 - 25 Colorado College 16 - 19 WashU 17 - 29 Loras 18 - 26 UW-Whitewater 19 - 27 UC Santa Cruz 20 - RV CMS 21 - 28 Colby 22 - RV Case Western Reserve
First 4 out Dickinson Bates Swarthmore Emory
There is a really interesting battle for the last few spots. There is a bunch of teams that ran the Paul Short White race that end being the next-best team in their region to not get selected.
Those being (in order): Dickinson, Swarthmore, Emory, Bates, St. Lawrence, George Fox. The committee will consider these teams in order of finish since they hold the same number of wins (1 against TCNJ). Yet Case Western would get selected over all of them because of their win over Colby at Prenats on a weekend that usually ISN'T counted. It's important to note that Case Western hasn't gone to ANY other relevant meets, choosing the David Mullen invite and the Oberlin interregional over Paul Short/Blugold and other interregionals, respectively.
I've noticed that there are some teams that have performed wildly different at different weekends. CMS nearly won Prenats against North Central yet was 13th at Conn College. Colby lost by 100 points to CMS at Prenats but beat them at Conn College. TCNJ was 24th in the Paul Short White race, yet was 12th at Conn and is now ranked and a provisional favorite for the Metro region. I completely missed this in my first takeaways as others pointed out.
There definitely could be an effect from counting 3 interregional weekends instead of 2. Fringe bubble teams need to be at the their best more often now. There's other examples too.
The Metro region looks to be wide open between TCNJ, Swarthmore and Haverford. The Metro region will not only likely only give 1 winner, but will also be a key to several teams at large hopes. Swarthmore was 14th compared to Haverford's 22nd and TCNJ's 24th at Paul Short White.
A Haverford or TCNJ Metro win opens up a lot of East Coast teams like Bates, Dickinson, WPI, Emory, St. Lawrence, etc. (i.e. the teams that finished 14th-22nd) to have feasible national qualifying hopes (though still not good enough as of today)
Also, want to call out Lebanon Valley and Wesleyan (and kind of Case Western like mentioned above) for not running their A team at the interregional meets (Rowan and Conn). These teams likely skipped out to try to avoid getting any losses to fellow bubble teams. The scheduling formula part of national qualifying is a real thing. I understand it but its weak. Wesleyan isn't going to be able to avoid the competition at NESCAC next weekend, but Lebanon Valley is definitely qualified for their first national meet ever as long as they are 3rd at Mid-Atlantics. They have a very weak conference but getting 3rd at Mid-Atlantics is no guarantee with Dickinson close by.
After conferences, I have Colby and Case Western out of the field, and Bates, Haverford, Dickinson, UW-Oshkosh, Emory in a very close battle for the last 2 spots. This assumes USTFCCCA Regional Rankings hold, and running through the selection process if the season ended after conferences.
I appreciate the time and energy it took to write that up; thank you.
Well two teams I completely didn't have on my radar showed up already today:
Rose-Hulman was 2nd at Great Lakes and they have a lot of good bubble wins from Paul Short so I think they have a very solid shot to get in right now.
Pfeiffer was 3rd in the South ahead of Emory. They have a win over Colby in Prenats so I think they have a shot since Colby was 3rd in the East. Going to be close for them I think.
Swarthmore 2nd in the Metro with Haverford 4th. At first glance, I think this probably means Haverford misses the field for the 2nd time in a row, and only for the 2nd time since 1992, while Swarthmore might be qualified for the first time in their school history.
Well two teams I completely didn't have on my radar showed up already today:
Rose-Hulman was 2nd at Great Lakes and they have a lot of good bubble wins from Paul Short so I think they have a very solid shot to get in right now.
Pfeiffer was 3rd in the South ahead of Emory. They have a win over Colby in Prenats so I think they have a shot since Colby was 3rd in the East. Going to be close for them I think.
Swarthmore 2nd in the Metro with Haverford 4th. At first glance, I think this probably means Haverford misses the field for the 2nd time in a row, and only for the 2nd time since 1992, while Swarthmore might be qualified for the first time in their school history.
In the spirit of Dick Cheney (RIP) I believe it is time for regime change at Haverford and Dickinson. Matt is a disgrace to Tom’s legacy and Nichter hasn’t had a team qualify for nationals in 10 goes.
Auto MIT Hope TCNJ Johns Hopkins RPI Wartburg SUNY Geneseo UW-La Crosse W&L Pomona-Pitzer
At-Large (in order of selection) NYU Tufts Williams UW-Stevens Point UW-Platteville UChicago North Central Carnegie Mellon Lynchburg Middlebury Wesleyan Amherst Lebanon Valley Loras Colorado College WashU St. Olaf UW-Whitewater CMS Colby Rose-Hulman
Last spot: Swarthmore/Bates
Next 3 out Dickinson WPI Moravian
This is what I have running through the selection process.
The only possible ambiguity I see is Swarthmore v Bates.
Swarthmore is 1-0 this season v Bates due to their win at Paul Short. Both got a win against a team selected for the national field already with both beating Metro champion TCNJ. Bates, however, has an extra win against a national team in their win at NESCACs against Colby.
D3 is not as explicit with their process as D1. In D1, Bates would objectively be chosen because number of wins against previously selected teams is explicitly stated to be the top nationals criteria, with head-to-head as a tiebreaker.
Selecting the nationals field in D1 (and I assume D3) is an iterative process. You compare the best team not selected yet in each region. So 10 teams total are compared 22 times (for the 22 at-large bids).
So we'll see what the committee values here. Wins against previously selected nationals teams v Head to Head. I could see it go either way. I will say the fact that Bates is 1-2 v Colby doesn't make that win look as good.
I should mention also that Dickinson v Swarthmore is not as clear cut as well. Dickinson beat Swarthmore by 2 at Paul Short, but Swarthmore won by 16 at Centennial. I think the committee will hold Swarthmore much higher because a 16-pt conference win is a much bigger win than a 2-pt Paul Short win (far less teams at conference).
My prediction is Swarthmore for the last spot.
This post was edited 4 minutes after it was posted.
Auto MIT Hope TCNJ Johns Hopkins RPI Wartburg SUNY Geneseo UW-La Crosse W&L Pomona-Pitzer
At-Large (in order of selection) NYU Tufts Williams UW-Stevens Point UW-Platteville UChicago North Central Carnegie Mellon Lynchburg Middlebury Wesleyan Amherst Lebanon Valley Loras Colorado College WashU St. Olaf UW-Whitewater CMS Colby Rose-Hulman
Last spot: Swarthmore/Bates
Next 3 out Dickinson WPI Moravian
This is what I have running through the selection process.
The only possible ambiguity I see is Swarthmore v Bates.
Swarthmore is 1-0 this season v Bates due to their win at Paul Short. Both got a win against a team selected for the national field already with both beating Metro champion TCNJ. Bates, however, has an extra win against a national team in their win at NESCACs against Colby.
D3 is not as explicit with their process as D1. In D1, Bates would objectively be chosen because number of wins against previously selected teams is explicitly stated to be the top nationals criteria, with head-to-head as a tiebreaker.
Selecting the nationals field in D1 (and I assume D3) is an iterative process. You compare the best team not selected yet in each region. So 10 teams total are compared 22 times (for the 22 at-large bids).
So we'll see what the committee values here. Wins against previously selected nationals teams v Head to Head. I could see it go either way. I will say the fact that Bates is 1-2 v Colby doesn't make that win look as good.
I should mention also that Dickinson v Swarthmore is not as clear cut as well. Dickinson beat Swarthmore by 2 at Paul Short, but Swarthmore won by 16 at Centennial. I think the committee will hold Swarthmore much higher because a 16-pt conference win is a much bigger win than a 2-pt Paul Short win (far less teams at conference).
My prediction is Swarthmore for the last spot.
Rose Holmen lost to everyone in the north at Augie, you have to consider that the committee takes the head to head with them v Eau Claire and Oshkosh.
Auto MIT Hope TCNJ Johns Hopkins RPI Wartburg SUNY Geneseo UW-La Crosse W&L Pomona-Pitzer
At-Large (in order of selection) NYU Tufts Williams UW-Stevens Point UW-Platteville UChicago North Central Carnegie Mellon Lynchburg Middlebury Wesleyan Amherst Lebanon Valley Loras Colorado College WashU St. Olaf UW-Whitewater CMS Colby Rose-Hulman
Last spot: Swarthmore/Bates
Next 3 out Dickinson WPI Moravian
This is what I have running through the selection process.
The only possible ambiguity I see is Swarthmore v Bates.
Swarthmore is 1-0 this season v Bates due to their win at Paul Short. Both got a win against a team selected for the national field already with both beating Metro champion TCNJ. Bates, however, has an extra win against a national team in their win at NESCACs against Colby.
D3 is not as explicit with their process as D1. In D1, Bates would objectively be chosen because number of wins against previously selected teams is explicitly stated to be the top nationals criteria, with head-to-head as a tiebreaker.
Selecting the nationals field in D1 (and I assume D3) is an iterative process. You compare the best team not selected yet in each region. So 10 teams total are compared 22 times (for the 22 at-large bids).
So we'll see what the committee values here. Wins against previously selected nationals teams v Head to Head. I could see it go either way. I will say the fact that Bates is 1-2 v Colby doesn't make that win look as good.
I should mention also that Dickinson v Swarthmore is not as clear cut as well. Dickinson beat Swarthmore by 2 at Paul Short, but Swarthmore won by 16 at Centennial. I think the committee will hold Swarthmore much higher because a 16-pt conference win is a much bigger win than a 2-pt Paul Short win (far less teams at conference).
My prediction is Swarthmore for the last spot.
Rose Holmen lost to everyone in the north at Augie, you have to consider that the committee takes the head to head with them v Eau Claire and Oshkosh.
That's a good point, I did overlook that they lost to Eau Claire and Oshkosh as well. The issue with Eau Claire is they have no wins against teams already selected, and there is a lot of teams that do.
Here's my thought process now.
Those last two spots probably come down to: Bates, Rose-Hulman, Swarthmore, Dickinson, UW-Eau Claire.
St. Lawrence, George Fox have wins against TCNJ, but they are too far down the Paul Short ladder to make it. Pfeiffer has got a win against Colby, but same problem for them with Paul Short.
Bates has the most wins against selected teams: 2 against Colby and TCNJ
Swarthmore, Dickinson and Rose-Hulman have one against TCNJ.
Rose-Hulman wins the head-to-head against Swarthmore, Dickinson, and Bates. UW-Eau Claire wins the head-to-head against Rose-Hulman.
If you value head-to-head more (albeit indirectly), you select UW-Eau Claire and then UW-Oshkosh.
If you value good wins more, you select Bates, and then Rose-Hulman.
The NCAA manual states: "head-to-head with teams already in the field and other potential at-large teams" as the first listed criteria (the other criteria being common opponents and point gap). It's a mix and one isn't necessarily more important. Swarthmore is hoping for a mix at this point. They hope the committee picks the best team with a "already-in-the-field" win (Rose-Hulman), and then put Swarthmore over Bates due to head-to-head.
As far as point gap, Oshkosh wasn't really competitive with the rest of the region. They were 59 points behind Eau Claire, which is more than Rose-Hulman trailed region winners Hope.
There also could be a scenario where they pick Eau Claire, but then skip Oshkosh for someone else because of point gap.
I was looking at old posts, and in 2024, UChicago missed out on nationals despite having the most wins because they had lost a head-to-head to Hope and Carthage. So I think you might be right here.
This post was edited 12 minutes after it was posted.
I don't think the Northern teams will struggle. It will be upper 50's and close to 60 at the North Region meet. It will even be low 50's at the Niagara Region meet. Historically it has been around 20's to 30's or lower at these meets, I do not believe this will have such a great effect as some might think. What do we think of the course tho? I haven't heard or seen much about it.
Good question about the course. I have heard it is mostly flat with maybe a short steep hill, although I don’t know when it comes in the race. And footing is supposed to be rough (uneven, roots, etc — can roll an ankle). This is all hearsay though so would be nice to get opinions of anyone who has actually seen or run it.
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