way too early 2025 XC CIF HS predictions

I don’t know how true this rumor actually is. But there have been rumors circulating that Jesuit is getting an elite transfer from the section next year- Connor Bilodeau (10th grader from Granite Bay: 4:11, 9:08, 15:39). If this is indeed true then Jesuit will be unstoppable for the next two years. Idk how valid this rumor is but we’ll by next fall. Honestly, Jesuit has enough firepower I’m pretty sure they don’t need more 😭

Holy smokes it's real. I remember seeing him solo the frosh soph 3200m at the pacific coast league under 10 minutes as a freshmen. That was a gutsy race, at one point he took the lead from Evan fricking Noonan - and that was in the second half of the race. He reminds me a lot of his former teammate Felix, they both have similar strides, arm carriage, and hell, they look the same(I swear this isn't racist lol). He will add a ton to Beckman's team this fall, they will have some absurd depth. They're really only lacking a dedicated low stick. Most people thought this would be Mason Nguyen after his great low-15 runs at clovis and mt. sac, but since then he's seemingly struggled, especially with track times. With Hassan's rapid improvement, I could see him being that low stick.

>>I feel sure I am missing at least one other school that can score in the 600's.

Well I did indeed find another team, Viewpoint, scoring 640. They were 2nd at states in division 5 last year. They score just ahead of Clovis North, Crescenta Valley and Bellarmine.

Backman should be ahead of Mira Costa and likely Matilda Torres based on how deep Beckman’s underclassman group is.

Woodbridge should be top 10.

Beckman*

How do you guys think Sam Hansen (Aptos) would do in xc next fall? He’s a 10th grader who ran 4:12, 1:55, 16:12. There are no records of a 3200 time but he definitely seems like he could at least run mid 9:20s to sub 9:20. Dan Gruber is a pretty solid coach and has a history of CCS and state titles for Aptos.

^ if he ran a 4:12 as a sophomore, then I’d feel there is no doubt he is atleast in sub 15:30 shape. What do you guys think?

Yeah I wouldn’t be surprised if Viewpoint beats Menlo and wins D5. 2024 Menlo was the best D5 team California has ever seen, but they are losing 3 scorers (including Pretre), and will be young this year. Viewpoint is returning everybody

And some other girls teams that haven’t been to NXN that look solid this year include El Toro, Del Norte, and Whitney

It’d be cool to see Whitney getting their first state xc title🥹

Tf going on at Ayala?

their xc+track coach is also leaving as well

This is sad. They had the potential to be really good this fall and they have the best freshman class in the state

I mean… is there some sort scandal going on in Ayala?

After the track season has ended for most teams and their distance athletes, I feel pretty confident on my new top 10 rankings for boys. Won't yap as much this time. These rankings will be heavily influenced by runners' season bests in comparison to cross country performances from the fall.

1. Jesuit

Although Jesuit was missing Ogilvie this season, they still have put together great times and they always show up in cross country, so we can count on a return from them to be the best team in the state.

2. Beckman

This team is very deep in the 3200m and their 6-7 are much closer to the top 5 than other teams. Notably, Hassan Syed, a sophomore, had a breakout 3200m in 9:22 and will become another good individual for them.

3. Woodbridge

This team has lots of depth in the 3200m and great top runners. Notably, Aidan Antonio will be a top athlete in the entire state this fall and will be a strong low stick for the team.

4. Mountain View

although Mountain View is lacking depth outside of their top 7 returners from the 3200m, they have a very strong top 3 and the rest of their top 7 are very strong.

5. Vacaville

This team is young and will also have a strong top 3, with a good 4-8. They only have one junior out of their top 8 returning for this fall. They will likely have some freshmen and sophomores making big jumps to close in on the top 8 runners.

6. Campolindo

Like Vacaville, Campolindo looks very young but is still strong. Their runners will make big jumps this fall to be one of the best teams in the state.

7. San Clemente

San Clemente is yet another very young team. They have a strong duo in Mattheus Dos Santos and Yohan Anderson, but the rest of their team is far behind, although still competent. This team will have to improve their 4-7 to be their strongest.

8. Matilda Torres

This team lacks depth, but still has a strong top 5. The team's success will rely on the improvement of Hunter Hannah and Benjamin Fernandez, otherwise the team may stagnate.

9. Mira Costa

Mira Costa showed significant depth last fall, but seems to lack it in the 3200m. They have a strong returning top 6, Led by Carson Ehman and Krish Desai.

10. Martin Luther King

This team has stagnated, with only 4 returners under 10 minutes in the 3200m, with their top 3 returners unable to PR in the 3200m this season. If they can get their 5th man to catch up, they can stay in it and contend this fall.

Ayala and Redondo Union have been replaced on my rankings by Campolindo and Mountain View, because apparently Ayala's program is falling apart, and Redondo is hugely lacking in depth in the 3200m, with only 3 returners under 10, and their 4th returner running 10:35. Meanwhile, Campolindo and Mountain View look very strong and have some depth.

After seeing how Ben and Hunter performed this track season, I began to have doubts about Matilda Torres- they’re either going to stagnate or fall off. Their 3-7 had better track seasons than their dynamic duo. If Ben and Hunter fall then the team may potentially fall unless they all step up.

Good list.

Once you add Granite Bay transfer Connor Bilodeau to Jesuit, they'll be fixing to win NXN.

And Vacaville will likely surprise people...if they can stay healthy.

Good call on Campo. Lots of energy right now.