This. It’s not just her time. It’s her sudden never-seen-before ability to run on the heels of the GOAT right up until the end. Raises suspicion.
Kipyegon is a mega doper, anyone who comes close is suspicious.
Literally EVERYONE dopes at top leval. Thats just the sport. Actually its most sports. 3.50 isnt possible for a woman,nor is her 8.22 3000 meters indoors she ran earlier this year.
It was the right decision for her to go back to Australia. She is coached by her father and she says in the interview that she's been hitting outstanding times in workouts. She ran 8:24 at the World Indoor Championships this year behind St. Pierre, Tsegay, and Hailu. Hull was right behind Tsegay in second until 7:40 of that race. So, she was already well beyond her previous shape indoors. Sometimes you get a major advantage the first year after a coaching switch because of the different stimuli.
That 8:24 was a huge tell. Daniels says it’s equivalent to a 3:53. She said in her interview she thought she was in 3:53 shape. (Is the track 1/2sec per lap short?)
Was she doing the type of base-building in past years like this?:
I heard 3:52 in the interview. Also said everything has been going perfect this year. I estimated her 500m splits at 1:18/1:17/1:15 impressive. Can a change in training really make a 7 sec difference so close to the WR? I hope she changes her mind and stays at altitude.
To all those who say she's doping: Please explain what an acceptable progression looks like? Is it 1-2 seconds per year? And are race conditions a factor? Cory McGee recently ran a big pr in the trials but only finished 5th. Does her time raise a flag, considering her age? Is it possible to break a world record without doping? If not, how do we stop this? Hassan said "test me every day". Would that do it? Or do we need 24 hour cameras monitoring all distance runner for 3-4 months before Olympic or world championships? Thanks in advance to all you "experts".
I said it in the official Paris thread. I like Hull. She is a gritty racer who always sticks her nose in it. But this is the most suspicious performance of the day. If you believe it is legit, that is fine. But I don't believe it.
To answer the other poster question. She was part of NOP and then with Julian at UAC. She quit UAC and moved back to AUS and appears to train without much of a formal group or pro training partners. All of which make this improvement more suspect.
The 'pro' setups are glorified slavery. This is the beat way to train, in your home country, with a coach and training partners invested in your success. Not the success of a brand, or focused on recruiting the next athlete.
And I agree with you on this too. Moreso that the incentive (to cheat) when you live in a place like Australia is just really low because hey, if you get caught and your face plastered all over 7NEWS, you might as well pack your bags for New Zealand because it's going to be a greasy existence for the rest of your lifetime.
Once again, not an accusation, more a justification that any questions are completely valid and should be there given the spirit of consistency and anti-bias.
I’m with you. Just trying to figure out how it could be done in an extremely isolated and insanely regulated country like Oz. Even buying basic chemicals would raise flags and a probable investigation, as the ‘Big Brother’ government oversees absolutely everything. Also, I agree - Her face would be plastered everywhere and it’d be a huge humiliation. Not worth it. Very unlike other countries again. Again, not impossible, just magnitudes (many, many times..) more difficult than simply living in almost any country. Yet she chose to go back and live in Oz.
Oh Please, You're painting an over zealous picture of Australian Anti Doping. I could just as easily obtain PEDs in Melbourne as I could anywhere in the world. All you need is a dodgy doctor willing to write a prescription for someone. There are plenty of people on roids at every gym in Australia, its by no means even hard.
And thats ignoring the fact that she spends months at a time overseas
To all those who say she's doping: Please explain what an acceptable progression looks like? Is it 1-2 seconds per year? And are race conditions a factor? Cory McGee recently ran a big pr in the trials but only finished 5th. Does her time raise a flag, considering her age? Is it possible to break a world record without doping? If not, how do we stop this? Hassan said "test me every day". Would that do it? Or do we need 24 hour cameras monitoring all distance runner for 3-4 months before Olympic or world championships? Thanks in advance to all you "experts".
Okay well let's not get all emotional - stay calm okay.
It's not about "acceptable progression" because this is all relative isn't it. Like someone used the example of Maggi Congdon earlier and Maggi has made a far bigger jump this season from 4.15 to 4.02 so is that "acceptable"?
But of course there are some key things in her situation that absolutely matter, 1) she is a 21 year old NCAA athlete that was never exposed to this level of racing before the US trials season where she ran her PR and 2) 4.02 is not 3.50 and let's be honest with ourselves, we are assuming this is the 3rd fastest time a woman has ever run because Dibaba certainly wasn't and neither was Yunxia Qu so this is a seismic jump to a pretty high/historic level of performance.
So the question is really, is this an acceptable progression give Hulls age, her exposure to competition in the last 3-4 years (with wavelight and "superspikes" at her disposal which haven't suddenly evolved even more in 2024) and the level of performance over 1500m within the womens category that she made the jump to and from. Now I won't be the judge of that or even give my opinion, but we would be remiss if we couldn't accept that this really is an incredible, staggering increase in performance that if not totally unprecedented, certainly hasn't been seen often. And there are good reasons for that - because it's really freaking hard to do and it's harder to do the higher the level of performance you achieve.
Kipyegon ran 3.54 in 2019, 3.51 in 2021 (2020 being the bizarre covid year we can omit this as she only ran one 1500m that season in Ostrava and won it in 3.59), 3.50 in 22, 3.49 in 2023. Like for me personally, even if something funky is happening with FK - that is a progression at this level of performance that is not head scratching. Neither is that of Tsegay who ran 3.53.09 in 2021, focussed on the 5000m in 22 and 23 but still ran low 3min54's - medalling in the 22 worlds in a 3.54 and in only one 1500m outdoor race in 2023 ran 3.54.03 before running 3.50.30 this season. This is also a progression at this level of performance that is not jumping off the page.
You know what does when we look at the historical list and woman under 3.51 which is really top top percentile?
Yunxia Qu - 3.57.08 to 3.50.46 across 1992-1993
Genzebe Dibaba - 3.55.17 to 3.50.07 across 2014-2015 (via 3.54.11 in 2014 prior to the WR)
Jessica Hull - 3.57.29 to 3.50.83 across 2023-2024 (via 3.55.97 in 2024 prior to the 5AT)
Acceptable? Come to your own conclusions. I think "staggering" is maybe a better adjective and from there it's up to you how you contextualize that against other athletes who have had similarly "staggering" performances. Maybe she is just one of the great outliers whose potential was so remarkably untapped only until today.
Spare a thought though for athletes like Linden Hall who has seen her own stellar once Australian record beaten this year twice - the first time by just under a second and now by almost 6, and also for Laura Muir who has grinded away for season after season in the 3.54/55's and finally pops a sensational career best in 3.53.8 but found herself almost 20m behind a woman she started the season with a PR almost 3 seconds faster than.
This post was edited 8 minutes after it was posted.
10 minutes? I took more than 2 hours off my marathon, no biggie. I'm faster than 4 hours now (3:58:25). 10 seconds sounds like a nice little improvement you probably don't even notice
Lol, meatheads in gyms getting steroids from bikies and other meatheads.
If you're a competitive athlete in Australia, especially in an Olympic year, you're going to get tested numerous times and when you least expect, even by the team doctors leading up to and while at the Olympics.
If you're into, or intending to take PEDs, the last place you would do it is Australia.
imagine you are in the top 0.5% genetic running potential and have the ability to go pro. we know doping is a documented problem. how do you medal at the world stage when you are up against the other 0.5% of genetically gifted runners during a well documented doping epidemic (ie constant bans and past whistleblowers). please explain how it is possible to medal without doping. jess hull is likely doping as is her competition, but make no mistake, she's really gifted.
Her training partner is her physio (3:46/14:15 1500/5k guy in his own right). She's in a good environment back home where she has dedicated training partners who are always a few seconds ahead of her.
Now that they're in Europe and training together consistently, the confidence she's getting from staying on his shoulder during hard workouts is taking her to another level.
Is there another female 1500m runner in the world who has a 3:46 guy to train with 2/3 times a week?
I’m with you. Just trying to figure out how it could be done in an extremely isolated and insanely regulated country like Oz. Even buying basic chemicals would raise flags and a probable investigation, as the ‘Big Brother’ government oversees absolutely everything. Also, I agree - Her face would be plastered everywhere and it’d be a huge humiliation. Not worth it. Very unlike other countries again. Again, not impossible, just magnitudes (many, many times..) more difficult than simply living in almost any country. Yet she chose to go back and live in Oz.
Oh Please, You're painting an over zealous picture of Australian Anti Doping. I could just as easily obtain PEDs in Melbourne as I could anywhere in the world. All you need is a dodgy doctor willing to write a prescription for someone. There are plenty of people on roids at every gym in Australia, its by no means even hard.
And thats ignoring the fact that she spends months at a time overseas
Lol, meatheads in gyms getting steroids from bikies and other meatheads.
If you're a competitive athlete in Australia, especially in an Olympic year, you're going to get tested numerous times and when you least expect, even by the team doctors leading up to and while at the Olympics.
If you're into, or intending to take PEDs, the last place you would do it is Australia.
I heard 3:52 in the interview. Also said everything has been going perfect this year. I estimated her 500m splits at 1:18/1:17/1:15 impressive. Can a change in training really make a 7 sec difference so close to the WR? I hope she changes her mind and stays at altitude.
She just happened to be in the right race. Great weather and ideal rabbit in Kipyegon. Also an absolutely clean run on the rail.
She took a risk and put her nose in between Kipyegon,'s shoulder blades and hung on for dear life.
She made it til the last 100m and hung on for the giant pr.
To all those who say she's doping: Please explain what an acceptable progression looks like? Is it 1-2 seconds per year? And are race conditions a factor? Cory McGee recently ran a big pr in the trials but only finished 5th. Does her time raise a flag, considering her age? Is it possible to break a world record without doping? If not, how do we stop this? Hassan said "test me every day". Would that do it? Or do we need 24 hour cameras monitoring all distance runner for 3-4 months before Olympic or world championships? Thanks in advance to all you "experts".
Oh, come on. Even a slow 8th grader could do better than this.
Do you honestly think there's nothing unusual about a 27 year old top tier pro who had plateaued at 3:58-ish for several years dropping her pr by 6.5 seconds in less than a year? Or by 5 seconds in two months?
PS Here's her year's best and rank on the AT list for the last few years:
Acceptable? Come to your own conclusions. I think "staggering" is maybe a better adjective and from there it's up to you how you contextualize that against other athletes who have had similarly "staggering" performances. Maybe she is just one of the great outliers whose potential was so remarkably untapped only until today.
AMEN! "Staggering" is exactly right, and much less loaded than "suspicious."
I have no idea whether Hull ran so much faster b/c of training, wavelights, shoes, track, peds and so on. One think I do know is that it wasn't b/c she's more "courageous" or "gutty" than other runners. Anyone who says that is just being silly.
If you actually watch the race and focus just on Hull you will see:
1. She ran the shortest distance possible. A straight line from her starting position to the inside of lane 1 the whole way.
2. Paced perfectly and smoothe. She never had to slow down, chop her steps, nor speed up.
3. No traffic, no stress whatsoever. Nobody who might cut her off or trip her up.
4. She was right on the heels of Kipyegon with no one else nearby from 100 meters in to 1300. Then only a second behind the last 200. She never had to lead.
I have watched 100's of races over the decades and it is extremely rare to be gifted a perfect pacer as Kipyegon was for Hull.
Also, that track has a history of world records set on it including Kipyegon's 1500 world record last year.