Official Parker Valby Bryan Clay 2024 10K Prediction Contest

Your Nico fans will point out that the men's collegiate records are world class and guys like Young, Waskom, Green, Blanks etc can comfortably compete in a diamond league meet.

The women's collegiate records are well off the world leaders and top collegians would get lapped in a fast pro race. Not a knock on Valby, more a knock on current status of US women's running. When Simpson ran her 3:59, and Uhl her 31:18, the times were relevant at world level.

Parker's great, and the times she's running are unbelievable, but she's still never been in a race against top runners. Katelyn Tuohy is still the best runner she's beaten in a race. How's she going to handle racing against women that can hang with her? I think her first few years as a pro are going to look like Nico's first few in college, fast times but no chance at winning when the real competition is there. She has only shown she can run from the front.

I'm not sure I understand her coach's strategy with her at this point. If she's aiming towards making an Olympic Team in the 10,000, she should have skipped the 5000 at NCAA's and just run the 3000m and come back to race the Ten. There is limited benefit to just getting close because she still needs another very close to the standard 10,000 to get her ranking high enough. Even if the 10,000 is just a back up for the 5,000 at the trials, it is still the same issue, and trying to get the standard at the trials is not a great option. If she is combining this with a top 3 at trials in 31:20, she doesn't make the team. If she just wanted a regional qualifier, she should have just cruised with the leaders and taken care of business.

I think she was going after the only other outdoor NCAA record she hasn't already run faster than that she could actually break, then if she felt good at the halfway point, try and close it down with an outside shot at the qualifying time. She's a strong contender for the Olympic team but not a favorite yet.

Will Palmer just interviewed on runnerspace that the 10k was being considered even Last outdoor season. It sounds like they have been training for it for a while. The fact that they were considering it last year as well surprised me.

I recall last outdoor season when there was a tiktok post of Valby on a 13 mile long run some posters on here were convinced themselves it was old or fake. Now the runnersworld article confirms it is a part of her routine.

C’mon coffee-club, quit being a douche-nozzle. The athlete was injured just a year ago. She’s on an upward trajectory. More miles are being introduced, in order to race the longer distance. They are improvising with her as they go. The plans are fluid. They need to first keep the ball rolling, not get too crazy, and accept it may two years of more hard training and development before getting below 30min.

Gotcha!

The TikTok video I vaguely recall, that I at least, said was balderdash was the one with her high school buddy on the bike. They said they covered a marathon, and were headed to Chipotle (?), suggesting they get sponsored by them.

I bet it was a quiet and sleepless night in places like Provo, Albuquerque, and Raleigh. What a debut!

Impressive run, no doubt she would have run in the 30:30s with a high quality field, she has a bright future.

No, it doesn’t pale in comparison and it’s not even close. Nico is 41 seconds behind the WR in the 10 and 22 in the 5. Valby is 1:50 and 53 seconds. Young is on the cusp of being world class while Valby still has a ways to go.

I mean, I have some doubt. Finding another 10+ seconds at that pace isn't like dusting crops. I am certain she could have run faster in a pro field and 30:50 running solo, at age 21 is incredibly impressive

But she is about the same number behind the best runners in the world.

you are not wrong. nico is a couple off seconds off worlds best this year, valby is way over a minute behind. wonder why that is. are the top women just that much better than anyone else? and if so, why? 30.50 is great but yeah she would get lapped in a fast race. nico would pretty much be on the home stretch in an equally fast mens race

Here is a photo of Parker Valby in full-flight/full-stride:

ibb.co

IMG-0369

Image IMG-0369 hosted in ImgBB

Link:ibb.co/D48D56Z

Maybe someday we will see her racing on the roads, unencumbered by the constraints of the track.

Valby’s 14:52 is equivalent to a 30:52, per Daniels (a 70.3 VDOT), and she ran 30:50 (incredible how that works, no?). So she has extended her 5k fitness out to the 10k distance.

Hypothetically, Parker Valby could now stay at this VDOT while training for the marathon, and debut in a road marathon in 2025 at the equivalent 2:22:32.

Alternatively, she will remain on the track for a couple more years and get her 10000m time down to 30:00, a VDOT of 72.8. She would subsequently then train for the marathon at that VDOT, and debut a year later, in 2027, at its equivalent of 2:18:21.

She could then continue to train another year in prep for LA ‘28, where she possibly lowers her PB to…???

She will get destroyed unless she can run 29 low.

Destroyed? How many women will run 28:45 to destroy her?

I'm just stating facts and trying to reign in the crazy. This young lady is running extremely fast times, but hasn't been tested by anyone since Tuohy dropped her at regionals last year in a 5k that didn't really matter since both were going to make it through, but most posters are saying Sub-30 is only a race or two away as if setting an American Record will be easy.

Parker will likely have a great career as she's clearly an aerobic monster and talented runner. I just want to see her race some pros, the other collegiate women aren't in her class and single runner time trials are boring.

I guess you know everything, right? Get a life, or at least improve on yours.

It might take a couple of years to go sub30, training at altitude.