For the last few years there was a top 10 team at NXN from the Midwest (even though many people didn’t predict it), and I think it can happen again. Plainfield North and / or Downers Grove North can get top 10 at NXN.
Actually, Cali won’t look as strong as they used to be on the boys side. #3 team finished 17th last year. Top 2 CA teams were 5-deep and are losing a ton of people.
Great Oak will be a heavy favorite in the state with everyone healthy. All of the top CA boys teams are graduating a lot of people, to the point where it’s very likely that the #2 boys CA team will be one that wasn’t top 10 in the state last year. #2 boys CA team will probably be Jesuit, Buchanan, or ML King. None of them were in the top 10 in CA last year. Of course, a transfer will help make a team a lot better.
California has an excellent Great Oak team and 3 other teams with lots of potential - buchanan, ml king, jesuit ca. I wouldn't doc them too hard for not being top 10 in the merge last year considering they return almost everyone - top 10 in merge was all top 50 all-time
Right. Dana Hills was 18th in the merge in 2022, returned their top 4 guys, added a transfer who ended up #2 on the team, autoqualified in 2023, and took 10th at NXN.
Agreed! Now that coaches at some of those big schools in Utah/Colorado are fully taking advantage of the higher elevation, the SW will be a dominant force for the foreseeable future. Flagstaff area high schools, let's join the party!?
There will probably be some Southwest boys teams not top 4 in the Southwest region but top 15 in the nation.
Ok let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Just because SW was crazy good last year doesn’t necessarily mean they are guaranteed to replicate the same success next year. especially how other regions like south, Midwest, northeast are getting better and California still solid. Not trying to take away from southwest success last year. just don’t underestimate the other regions.
I don’t think anyone in the southeast will be close to Belen.
True.
Vestavia Hills (AL) is looking to be the favorite for second in the Southeast.
They had only 1 senior last year and took third at NXR.
They return 5 guys under 4:29.
Actually, Trinity (Louisville) KY is looking to be a little better than Vestavia Hills based on NXR returners, but both have a really good chance for second
Including Southlake Carroll, South has a stronger Austin Vandegrift next year. I heard Jesuit LA is going to be the best they will ever be next year
If NXR South is only a few days after the Louisiana state meet, Jesuit will be weary coming into NXR. That’s what happened to them last year, and some of their important guys were sick or injured. In fact, at NXR, they lost to a team in their own state. Either way, Southlake is looking to be the favorite to win at NXR South, and Austin Vandegrift is looking to take second.
Plainfield South will probably get an at-large if they take third at NXR. They could challenge for an auto-bid too. Both Plainfield teams will be better than last year. DGN will be strong again too.
Obviously SW is top dog - Herriman, Niwot, Mountain View, AF
American Fork loses 6 of their varsity guys so it will be harder for them to qualify than it was the last couple of years. But they still return 4 sub-10 guys and another 4:25 guy so they still have a shot to qualify. Herriman, Niwot, and Mountain View are looking to be top 3 in the Southwest. Besides American Fork, some other teams that can challenge for the 4th NXR SW spot are: Coronado, Valor Christian, Mountain Vista, and Cheyenne Mountain.
CDA is returning guys that have run 9:13 for 3200m at 4500', 4:18 and 4:27 (who is a freshman!) for 1600m also at 4500'. They also have a sophomore that didn't race in indoors that was in between the 9:13 guy and the other guys.
Noe Kemper from Boise ran 4:20 at Simplot games last year and was a 4:12 guy at Arcadia. There's a real possibility that they return a sub 4:10/9:00 guy, ~4:15/9:20, and two more guys in the 9:20's. Their #5 will either be one of their freshman or a guy that has run 16:02 on a fast course and mid-16's on moderate courses.
CDA has to be the heavy, heavy favorite in the NW.
Yes CDA will be heavy favorites in the Northwest, but not sure about #3 in the nation.
Looks like they will have a bit of a gap between #4 and #5.
Do they have any impact freshmen coming in next fall?
They have a likely sub 9 guy, a 4:18, a 4:27, a sub 10 freshman from last year, and a boy that has a 164 speed rating to his name. They return 182, 174, 173, 171, 164 from last year, as well as a freshman that ran 4:50 (mile)/9:48 (3k) in indoors and a 16:58 in cross. They also have a 4:57 indoor 8th grader coming in. Other freshman ran 17:02 and 17:09.
Given that the 4:18 and 4:27 were at elevation, and the 4:27 just set the Simplot games freshman record, I think they absolutely should be considered potentially a top 5 team. Obviously, we'll need to see how the rest of the track season plays out, but they are very legit. Remember that this is a team that failed to qualify for state in 2019 and 2020, got 8th in 2021 at the Idaho State meet, was 7th at NXR in 2022, and won NXR in 2023. They had a coaching change and the team has massively improved every year and they have a pipeline in North Idaho Distance Project, which is run by their coach.
They have a likely sub 9 guy, a 4:18, a 4:27, a sub 10 freshman from last year, and a boy that has a 164 speed rating to his name. They return 182, 174, 173, 171, 164 from last year, as well as a freshman that ran 4:50 (mile)/9:48 (3k) in indoors and a 16:58 in cross. They also have a 4:57 indoor 8th grader coming in. Other freshman ran 17:02 and 17:09.
Given that the 4:18 and 4:27 were at elevation, and the 4:27 just set the Simplot games freshman record, I think they absolutely should be considered potentially a top 5 team. Obviously, we'll need to see how the rest of the track season plays out, but they are very legit. Remember that this is a team that failed to qualify for state in 2019 and 2020, got 8th in 2021 at the Idaho State meet, was 7th at NXR in 2022, and won NXR in 2023. They had a coaching change and the team has massively improved every year and they have a pipeline in North Idaho Distance Project, which is run by their coach.
ngl doesn't sound very impressive at all for #3 in the nation. I thought they would be better than that.
They have a likely sub 9 guy, a 4:18, a 4:27, a sub 10 freshman from last year, and a boy that has a 164 speed rating to his name. They return 182, 174, 173, 171, 164 from last year, as well as a freshman that ran 4:50 (mile)/9:48 (3k) in indoors and a 16:58 in cross. They also have a 4:57 indoor 8th grader coming in. Other freshman ran 17:02 and 17:09.
Given that the 4:18 and 4:27 were at elevation, and the 4:27 just set the Simplot games freshman record, I think they absolutely should be considered potentially a top 5 team. Obviously, we'll need to see how the rest of the track season plays out, but they are very legit. Remember that this is a team that failed to qualify for state in 2019 and 2020, got 8th in 2021 at the Idaho State meet, was 7th at NXR in 2022, and won NXR in 2023. They had a coaching change and the team has massively improved every year and they have a pipeline in North Idaho Distance Project, which is run by their coach.
ngl doesn't sound very impressive at all for #3 in the nation. I thought they would be better than that.
actually nm you mention times were all at elevation
Obviously SW is top dog - Herriman, Niwot, Mountain View, AF
Including Southlake Carroll, South has a stronger Austin Vandegrift next year. I heard Jesuit LA is going to be the best they will ever be next year
Best team they will ever be…. That’s doubtful. It will be hard for next year’s Jesuit team to top their 2022 team, who did really well all season except at RunningLane where they did not perform their best. They will have a strong top 3, but their #4 and 5 will need to step up. They also have had several top guys sick or injured (one of them is their projected #2 or 3 this coming season).
Lucas Lovejoy TX is another team to watch. They dominated the 5A TX state meet and are only losing 1 senior
