Because, if she is close to the others at 4k off a slower pace, Tuohy can out kick her from 2k out or atleast make it very very close.
This is where I think you are wrong, for three reasons:
(1) Valby is currently as fit as Tuohy.
(2)Tuohy pushing hard on those hills trying to stay with Valby could mean an epic, last second meltdown, where she easily drops three or four sticks going into the closing shoot; NCState would consequently not stand atop the podium.
(3) Tuohy’s hamstring is tweaked. She risks screwing that “issue” up further, which could possibly affect her next 12 months (at least) of racing.
If that were true then you wouldn't constantly be cheating by falsely accusing the competition. Or maybe you don't like cheating but you do it anyway??? Good grief.
I simply have no idea what Valby can do in the very difficult last 1.5km, after already running a difficult first 4.5km.
So then, why should Valby be the one making that first 4.5km extra difficult by setting the pace? Makes no sense, since she doesn’t need to, with no Team Trophy on the line.
So, for the last time....because Valby will likely not beat Tuohy/Mercy on the hills at the end of the race. Pretty sure I have said that several times. You think otherwise - good on you.
It doesn't matter who sets the pace...the pace will be fast. If Valby goes out fast, the group will follow. If Tuohy goes out fast, the group will follow. If Markezich goes out fast, the group will follow.
So then, why should Valby be the one making that first 4.5km extra difficult by setting the pace? Makes no sense, since she doesn’t need to, with no Team Trophy on the line.
So, for the last time....because Valby will likely not beat Tuohy/Mercy on the hills at the end of the race. Pretty sure I have said that several times. You think otherwise - good on you.
It doesn't matter who sets the pace...the pace will be fast. If Valby goes out fast, the group will follow. If Tuohy goes out fast, the group will follow. If Markezich goes out fast, the group will follow.
(1) “So for the last time”
Promise?
(2) because Valby will likely not beat Tuohy/Mercy on the hills at the end of the race.
In my previous post, I gave three reasons why Tuohy is not going to beat Valby on the final hills.
(3) If Tuohy goes out fast, the group will follow.
This would be the fourth reason why I don’t think Tuohy beats Valby on the finishing hills, because if Tuohy is the one that has already been taking it out fast up to that point, then that would us going to make those hills more difficult at that stage in the race.
If tuohy is neck-and-neck with Valby and McCabe on that last hill, and Chelengat, Roe, and Cook are within seconds, then unquestionably, Tuohy’s job will be to her hold her placement for her team. If instead, Tuohy were to still try and grab the Individual Title, under that scenario, and end up dropping 1-3 sticks that would consequently cost her Team the Team Trophy, then that would haunt her…for who knows how long. Her teammates and coach would rightfully question, “What were you thinking? Why did you not hold your placement??”
(3) Tuohy’s hamstring is tweaked. She risks screwing that “issue” up further, which could possibly affect her next 12 months (at least) of racing.
I agree this could possibly be a problem and henes was kind of vague. If Tuohy is concerned her hamstring during race, or if it acts up, her top sprint speed and hills may be affected. I would not want to see her do any damage that makes it worse.
(2) because Valby will likely not beat Tuohy/Mercy on the hills at the end of the race.
In my previous post, I gave three reasons why Tuohy is not going to beat Valby on the final hills.
(3) If Tuohy goes out fast, the group will follow.
This would be the fourth reason why I don’t think Tuohy beats Valby on the finishing hills, because if Tuohy is the one that has already been taking it out fast up to that point, then that would us going to make those hills more difficult at that stage in the race.
If tuohy is neck-and-neck with Valby and McCabe on that last hill, and Chelengat, Roe, and Cook are within seconds, then unquestionably, Tuohy’s job will be to her hold her placement for her team. If instead, Tuohy were to still try and grab the Individual Title, under that scenario, and end up dropping 1-3 sticks that would consequently cost her Team the Team Trophy, then that would haunt her…for who knows how long. Her teammates and coach would rightfully question, “What were you thinking? Why did you not hold your placement??”
1) nope, lied!
2) thanks for the 3 reasons...disagree
3) please reference a race where an elite runner with the chance of winning a National Championship decided in the last km that they were NOT going to try and win.
I agree this could possibly be a problem and henes was kind of vague. If Tuohy is concerned her hamstring during race, or if it acts up, her top sprint speed and hills may be affected. I would not want to see her do any damage that makes it worse.
If Tuohy is hurt, she won't win. We will know this early in the race. If she pack runs and allows others to get ahead, she is likely injured. But I will say again, there is no reason to believe she has an injury.
And recall Joe Piane, Markezich and maybe another ND runner will definitely be leading
Building on that, this is the reason I think the race will be a straight time trial. Markezich going out immensely benefits Valby because she doesn't have to go from the gun. Markezich will settle at 2k, and Valby may push from there, but I think the hills and cold weather will catch up to her. Even leading 4k on this course will be taxing. I only see Touhy, Roe, Chelengat and Chmiel being able to keep up if the pace is really hot (or at least going with it without risking a complete blow up the last k). But Touhy has the finish and it's Roe's home course which is why I have them 1-2.
I can give you examples of athletes that were in the lead, but then gave up sticks in the final seconds. Look no further than that ‘Barringer melt-down race’, in which leader Susan Kuijken gave up two sticks in the final seconds.
Fortunately for McCabe and Valby, risking placement, at the expense of the team, is one less stressor they will face in this race.
Which is the point of my posts here. I think everyone, except me (mark my posts), has been getting it wrong, by pigeonholing Valby with the idea that she’s going to yet again break away at 1k.
I think she and her coach will have figured it out, that their best strategy is to relax and conserve energy up until the real race starts; and let the others vying for the Team Trophy set the pace up to that point.
Considering how Valby collapsed in the business end of last year’s Nats, maybe opening less aggressively than expected tomorrow makes sense, but, as FastTuohy noted, turning a 6k into a 3k is not risk-free. Several podium contenders are strong on the hills, possess matching closing speed, are superior tactical runners and are likely in 8:50 shape on the track. Whether the strategy to “…relax and conserve energy up until the real race starts…” is wise (less-likely to blow up) or getting cute (underestimating the finishing prowess of the competition) is hard to say,
3) please reference a race where an elite runner with the chance of winning a National Championship decided in the last km that they were NOT going to try and win.
Right, this is not going to happen. It seems to me that some people overestimate how precisely runners can judge their fitness and that of the others. There can be early misjudgements but nobody will not try to win if they are in the mix with one km to go. That amazing race someone posted a few days ago with Barringer (Simpson) and Kuijken (Crumins), they went out too fast and Jenny was severely punished. But Susan only misjudged a little bit and would almost have pulled it off. 20/20 in hindsight but in a race people have to take some risks.
Orton blew up on this course in the final k in 2020 and dropped 17 places. Byu still won.
Counterpoint, did Orton come to point in that race where she eventually made the decision, “Given the hand I’ve been dealt, with my injury, my job is to at least hold my place!”?
I can give you examples of athletes that were in the lead, but then gave up sticks in the final seconds. Look no further than that ‘Barringer melt-down race’, in which leader Susan Kuijken gave up two sticks in the final seconds.
But it was literally a matter of the last 100m or so. Nobody can judge their own fitness so precisely with the race going on and full of adrenaline. It might as well have worked for Susan Kuijken.
I can give you examples of athletes that were in the lead, but then gave up sticks in the final seconds. Look no further than that ‘Barringer melt-down race’, in which leader Susan Kuijken gave up two sticks in the final seconds.
Fortunately for McCabe and Valby, risking placement, at the expense of the team, is one less stressor they will face in this race.
yup - and did she try to win? Yes. What did she give up? 2 spots. So your alternative was for her to NOT try to win...and to give up the 2 spots voluntarily?? Yeah, that makes a lot of sense.