Athing Mu now running the mile at Millrose - let the predictions begin

I vote ducking the 8!

Are you being paid for this promotion? You should be. Remind me, what's her fastest mile so far?

Ezrun wrote:

I vote ducking the 8!

Sacrilege.

What was Solinsky's 10k pr before he set the record?

everyone's dad wrote:

What was Solinsky's 10k pr before he set the record?

So she is also Solinsky?

Armstronglivs wrote:

Ezrun wrote:

I vote ducking the 8!

Sacrilege.

Guys seriously the more I think about it I'm surprised the story isn't that she's ducking the 8. Obviously her training times in the 800m are telling her she might lose. And rather than take a loss in her best event she's going to stay safe

LondonLocal wrote:

bear in mind she ran 4:37.99 on Jan 15th, I imagine anything under 4:30 might be a big ask...

But she was lapping people, so obviously there was no need to try to break any records that day. She can go under 4:30 with competition around her

Not her agent but happy to take anyone’s money for making sensible inductions if they’re so inclined…

Her fastest mile is the one that you don’t think she can run this Saturday. The one you have in mind was a VO2 Max workout in front of an appreciative home crowd.

So, just accept the wager—4:30.00 or higher and I come back here and eat crow, sub-4:27 and you never post on here about her again, and anything in between I’ll (generously) consider a draw despite your assuredness that a 7-10 second “PR” (in one week!) is basically unfathomable.

Guessing what’s holding you back—despite the exceedingly low stakes—is that you’ve never had to actually put anything on the line with your prognosticating before. Bloviating without any accountability or consequences is the more comfortable and safer route.

She ducking 8 bro... also wouldn't it be easier to post under one name

Geez, you’re dense… [insert face palm emoji here for not understanding even the most elementary form of analogically reasoning]

tbh after 2021 I thought that even in less than top shape Mu would be competitive in the 800m (it's january, so most other will also not be in their best possible shape), so this option did not occur to me at first.

Also, if she is so competitive and plucky, she shouldn't be afraid to lose to such good runners as Wilson or Goule.

It's also a bit hard to imagine for me that a speed based 400/800 type runner would not be in very good shape for the 800m but expect to improve >10 sec. in the mile

I'll take that wager you promised post under only one name from now on and I'll promise the context king will be no more

runbuggy!! wrote:

LondonLocal wrote:

bear in mind she ran 4:37.99 on Jan 15th, I imagine anything under 4:30 might be a big ask...

But she was lapping people, so obviously there was no need to try to break any records that day. She can go under 4:30 with competition around her

I don't think anyone was arguing she was going for a record or couldn't run any faster.

Armstrongleaves wrote:

Geez, you’re dense… [insert face palm emoji here for not understanding even the most elementary form of analogically reasoning]

Is that English or entirely your own invention? It appears it is meant to substitute for the fact she has yet to run a respectable time for the mile.

Speaking there of bloviating. There are never any consequences for what anyone posts here. It's a message board. People express their opinions. Like you do so freely.

Jo72 wrote:

tbh after 2021 I thought that even in less than top shape Mu would be competitive in the 800m (it's january, so most other will also not be in their best possible shape), so this option did not occur to me at first.

Also, if she is so competitive and plucky, she shouldn't be afraid to lose to such good runners as Wilson or Goule.

It's also a bit hard to imagine for me that a speed based 400/800 type runner would not be in very good shape for the 800m but expect to improve >10 sec. in the mile

Ummm, exactly. You’ve just further built out the case AGAINST the (preposterous) idea that she is ducking the 800.

There is absolutely no reason to think that anyone else in this field is ready to run faster than 1:58 high. There are no recent performances to support such a claim. Goule’s indoor PB is 1:59.13. Wilson’s is a 1:58.29. (And high schoolers?! Seriously?!) Mu has not run slower than 1:58.40 in a final since her indoor NCAA meet last February. If she is healthy and fit enough (even) to run a comfortable 4:37 mile, then she’s certainly fit enough with natural leg speed to soundly beat everyone in the Millrose 800 field.

Inference to the best explanation: she is switching because destroying a fairly mediocre field in the 800 is not as enticing to her as the much greater (and wow factor) challenge of stepping up against a pretty solid field of milers.

I’m not saying I’m convinced she will win this mile against a quality field; but I do think she is going with the intent to be in the mix, drop jaws, and demonstrate a range of world-class talent that we have not really ever seen from a 19-year old woman. And I frankly will not be surprised at all if she has a chance at the win when they hit the final lap.

As for an American indoor 800m record, I have little doubt that it—and perhaps a 1000m world record—will be coming by the end of the indoor season. But, first, a different kind of history!-making!

Armstronglivs wrote:

Armstrongleaves wrote:

Geez, you’re dense… [insert face palm emoji here for not understanding even the most elementary form of analogically reasoning]

Is that English or entirely your own invention? It appears it is meant to substitute for the fact she has yet to run a respectable time for the mile.

Autocorrect…[sigh]

should have been “analogical reasoning”…

Your reply about Solinsky demonstrated a profound inability to reason using analogies. And you’ve demonstrated that same inability many other times.

The poster (“everyone’s dad”) was not claiming that Athing Mu “is” Chris Solinsky. (I feel really weird even having to type that sentence out; but the mental density exhibited in your reply unfortunately seems to require it.)

Rather, “everyone’s dad” was claiming that Mu may be “like” (See what I did there? That’s called an analogy!) Solinsky in at least one important respect—namely, in having a PB on paper that doesn’t adequately reflect the athlete’s capacity but will continue to be their official “PB” UNTIL they choose to go after it and have the right mix of conditions to express their far greater PB potential.

Given your reluctance to invest any time in disabusing yourself of fallacious reasoning, I doubt this recommended link will get a new click from you, but here goes nothing.

There are many other web resources on the topic that are even more basic if that one is too much for you to handle.

why not 8 wrote:

Armstronglivs wrote:

Sacrilege.

Guys seriously the more I think about it I'm surprised the story isn't that she's ducking the 8. Obviously her training times in the 800m are telling her she might lose. And rather than take a loss in her best event she's going to stay safe

This is obviously why she is running the mile instead of the 800. Losing a mile race is a non issue, but potentially losing an 800 is a bigger deal and she doesn't want to risk it.

Also, last year she was peaking for the NCAA Indoor Championships in mid-March in order to score as many points for her college team in order to try to win a team national championship.

This year she is peaking for the World Championships in mid-July. So she is way behind on her speedwork right now compared to last year.

This is really intriguing. Kudos to her for stepping out of her comfort zone and taking a risk. Hope she kills it. One of the most likeable women in running and that’s saying a lot.