Hocker vs Ingebrigtsen in Tokyo

When I say "Africans" I am obviously including Moroccans and Algerians. I am certainly not arguing that Brits and Australians are necessarily better favored than Americans (not since Coe, Ovett, Cram and Herb Elliott).

But the results Americans have achieved at Olympic level in the md have been pretty slim pickings for the last half century - especially for a country its size - and it stands by contrast with the sprints, where - with the recent exception of the Jamaicans - the best Americans almost always take home the prizes internationally.

If Hocker was a Ryun, or a Wottle, I would rate his Olympic chances highly. But he isn't.

*Moroccans and Algerians in the 80' and 90's.

Armstronglivs wrote:

But the results Americans have achieved at Olympic level in the md have been pretty slim pickings for the last half century

You're stuck in the past. Morocco had Iguider, but there's no heir apparent and he's no longer relevant. Algeria has an aging Makhloufi with no heir apparent, and who knows if/when he'll emerge. Souleiman (long in the tooth), Tefera and Musagala's failures on the big stage are consistent. Kenya remains formidable but their two aces, by far, are out via injury (Tim) and missed tests (Manangoi).

So what your left with is the big favorite Jakob, the defending champion (Centro), unproven beyond Time Trials guys like Tefera and Musagala and a bunch of unknowns from the US, Kenya, Australia, and Great Britain. The US and Kenya have by far the best history of recent success.

Kobbs Hessler wrote:

Who ya got??

Ingebrigtsen.

Centro beats Hocker at the Trials if he moves with 600 to go. Hocker is an incredible talent but he won't be able to use his kick & get a medal in a fast race or in a race where he doesn't make good tactical decisions. Hocker needs a couple of years and some international experience. I'm hoping he exceeds my expectations but using a monster kick in a 3:35 race will look differently in a 3:30 race or a race where 4-5 guys have the same kick and move before he moves.

Just wanted to drop in and see I appreciate your take and analysis on things Thoughtsleader. Very thorough and well thought out. You are clearly a huge fan and very knowledgeable so kudos.

Armstronglivs wrote:

If Hocker was a Ryun, or a Wottle, I would rate his Olympic chances highly. But he isn't.

Can you be specific as to what you mean by this? How is Hocker not "a Ryun" or "a Wottle" ?

It doesn't make sense to compare Hocker to guys who competed 50 years ago. A better comparison would be Hocker vs. 2011 Matthew Centrowitz. I see a lot of similarities, and just like Centro I like Hocker's chances to make it onto the podium in Tokyo.

Armstronglivs wrote:

But the results Americans have achieved at Olympic level in the md have been pretty slim pickings for the last half century

Last half century lol

How about the last decade?

Clayton Murphy - 2016 800 bronze

Leo Manzano - 2012 1500 silver

Matt Centro - 2016 1500 gold

Donavan Brazier - 2019 800 gold

Nick Symmonds - 2013 800 silver

Matt Centro - 2011 1500 Bronze

Matt Centro - 2013 1500 silver

Jenny Simpson - 2016 1500 bronze

Jenny Simpson - 2011 1500 gold

Jenny Simpson - 2013 1500 silver

Jenny Simpson - 2017 1500 silver

Brenda Martinez - 2013 800 silver

Ajee Wilson - 2017 800 bronze

Alysia Montaño – 2011 800 bronze

Alysia Montaño – 2013 800 bronze

Emma Coburn - 2017 3k steeple gold

Courtney Frerichs - 2017 3k steeple silver

Jager, Chelimo, Rupp, Infeld… all with medals in 5k and up.

Granted, it includes world champs, but it certainly is longer than any British list.

All this in a country that refuses to acknowledge runners 😌

Even the title of this thread is disrespectful. These boards heavily criticise the brits for overestimating Mo Farah (a great championship runner who was lucky in terms of competitors and far, very far from the "best ever") and are now considering this guy Cole Hocker as one the favourites to win gold in Tokyo. This has to be a joke.

It is disrespectful for a number of reasons. First, you can't name a thread "Hocker x Ingenbritsen" before naming it as "Centrowitz x Ingenbritsen". Centrowitz looked better than Hocker at the US Olympic Trials (Hocker showed all his gears but it is clear from watching it that Centrowitz had more in the tank) and is the current Olympic champion.

Ingenbritsen is nearly 7 seconds faster than Hocker, honestly it is another world. Kejelcha and Barega are both superior to Hocker in a 1500m, but will not run the event. These Olympics will have the weakest 1500m field in a long, long time, and that is why realistically I don't put his chances of medalling as zero. But he should be happy to qualify for the finals.

Do you think Ingenbritsen and the Kenyans are concerned about Cole Hocker or Centrowitz?? I guarantee you it is the latter.

What a joke for a runner who did not even meet the Olympic standard (which is relatively slow compared to other distances) and has shown to have a solid kick in a average pace race.

Time to put both feet on the ground.

P.S I have nothing against Cole Hocker and he seems to be a nice guy who maybe will be a champion in the future, but he is not there yet and has shown very little to be considered a medal contender (yes, he gave it all to beat a sub-prime reigning Olympic champion that seemed to be not trying 100% to win the race). I am looking this from the outside impartially as an international runner and fan.

A Brazilian wrote:

Kejelcha and Barega are both superior to Hocker in a 1500m, but will not run the event.

See, I just don't get what sport some people on here watch. Or do they just share at PBs and make inane comments? PBs are not the be-all, end-all.

Do you think Mo Farah because he ran 3:28 in a 1500 would ever defeat an on-form Matthew Centrowitz or Sebastian Coe in a tactical championship 1500? If you do, you have a fundamental lack of understanding of the sport. Barega, love him but Hocker would blow his doors off in a slower 1500.

Can't wait to see people snub their noses when all three Americans break into the top 5. Won't be surprised if Hocker wins gold.

hoowie wrote:

Can't wait to see people snub their noses when all three Americans break into the top 5. Won't be surprised if Hocker wins gold.

If somebody who can run a 3:29 actually tries to run a 3:29, I wouldn't bet on any American to medal. But if it's a typical Olympics final, where they go out at 1:58 or whatever, your prediction could certainly happen. Those guys are kickers.

I watch the same sports as you do. Or maybe not, if you think Hocker is a better 1500m than Barega.

Here below is Barega closing in sub 13 last 100 in an indoor 3:34 race.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ec3nmFPCA9Q&t=220s

Kejelcha is a 3 31 1500m indoor runner in the race that Tefera set the WR

highhoppingworm wrote:

Just wanted to drop in and see I appreciate your take and analysis on things Thoughtsleader. Very thorough and well thought out. You are clearly a huge fan and very knowledgeable so kudos.

Thanks HHW, I'm starting to run some more and hopefully in a bit will rejoin the RRW thread! Good to see you pop in elite discussions as well. Very fun summer upcoming

In what of the last say 10 Olympics would Hocker have medalled in the 1500m? Maybe a bronze in Rio over Nick Willis. Maybe. No way he would have beaten Centrowitz or Makhloufi. I don't see him beating a prime Manzano. Actually it has been discussed in one of these threads Manzano closing a 12.0 in a similar race. Hocker did not show (at least not yet) to be superior to Manzano.

No chance in 2008. No way he beats a strong kicker such as Nick willis who could sub 3.30. Maybe a bronze over Baala? Maybe, maybe.

In 2004 no way. Guerrouj, Lagat, Rui Silva running the fastest last lap ever.

Then before you had Guerrouj, Lagat, Morcelli, Cacho, too many talents that are far, far superior to Hocker (at least as of today).

A Brazilian wrote:

I watch the same sports as you do. Or maybe not, if you think Hocker is a better 1500m than Barega.

Here below is Barega closing in sub 13 last 100 in an indoor 3:34 race.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ec3nmFPCA9Q&t=220s

Kejelcha is a 3 31 1500m indoor runner in the race that Tefera set the WR

Correction: His close is around 13.4 seconds for 100, 27.2 for the last 200, and 41.6 for the last 300. Check the video.

I'm sure Hocker is quaking in his boots considering he smoked those marks in the USA Trials.

He has a chance if the race is slow and decided in the last 100m. How many 1500m Olympic finals were decided on a 100m finishing kick? Zero

he is not the fastest over a lap in a slow race (as in Rio) or in a 3:35 race, which is how usually Olympic 1500 medals are decided.

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

Armstronglivs wrote:

But the results Americans have achieved at Olympic level in the md have been pretty slim pickings for the last half century

You're stuck in the past. Morocco had Iguider, but there's no heir apparent and he's no longer relevant. Algeria has an aging Makhloufi with no heir apparent, and who knows if/when he'll emerge. Souleiman (long in the tooth), Tefera and Musagala's failures on the big stage are consistent. Kenya remains formidable but their two aces, by far, are out via injury (Tim) and missed tests (Manangoi).

So what your left with is the big favorite Jakob, the defending champion (Centro), unproven beyond Time Trials guys like Tefera and Musagala and a bunch of unknowns from the US, Kenya, Australia, and Great Britain. The US and Kenya have by far the best history of recent success.

I thought I clarified that I meant counting not the N Africans of this era, but the 80's and 90's, when I said the Africans have dominated these events. I tend to think its Ingebrigtsen who's most likely going to change that domination this year. But Hocker - I doubt it - and I would be surprised if Centro is in contention again.

A Brazilian wrote:

He has a chance if the race is slow and decided in the last 100m. How many 1500m Olympic finals were decided on a 100m finishing kick? Zero

he is not the fastest over a lap in a slow race (as in Rio) or in a 3:35 race, which is how usually Olympic 1500 medals are decided.

Gee, many think Centro is, except Hocker was just faster than him over final 400. But perhaps someone else is. Granted, Hocker has to be in a position to use his speed, which is not always the case.