NCAA Womens XC National Championships!!! Predictions, Discussion, Analysis!!!

Thanks FT...I did look for it, but the NCAA website is frustrating in finding anything. Of course, I may be somewhat useless as well ...

Jedsdead wrote:

Easy now, i am expecting Chmiel to surprise people...I was responding to the Stride report which puts her at 40th. She had disappointed at her last few XC races.

With her running a pb at 5k a few weeks ago, i thought she was being seriously overlooked. Her 5k at nationals worried me a bit...bit I’m hoping she was just keeping her reserves for the xc race.

Seems like many people forget to that if it wasn’t for someone named Tuohy, she would be an NXN champ.

20th or better would be a good result for her.

* 2 time NXN champ

Jedsdead wrote:

Thanks FT...I did look for it, but the NCAA website is frustrating in finding anything. Of course, I may be somewhat useless as well ...

yea, some of this stuff is not as easy to find as it should be. At one point I searched and found the rules on the entry declarations, but a week later I tried to find them again and could not.

Here is the live results link with the 8 declared athletes for each team listed.

Pepper Brooks wrote:

Here is the live results link with the 8 declared athletes for each team listed.

Thank you, but specifically I was looking for the rules on how many athletes could be declared, at what point they would have to declare final 7. It is this morning, but I forget when.

(the timing site link was already posted!)

BTW, the team nobody talks about is Alabama, who has 3 very good runners, and if Tyynismaa has improved (recent 4:33 / 9:03 Indoors) they have 4, so if they find a 5th.......

Stanford 115

NM 165

BYU 175

NC State 200

Arkansas 215

NAU

Washington

Colorado

Alabama

That is where Alabama will finish. Their 5th will score 140.

I think what we are going to really learn is that track and cross country are separate sports with separate championships requiring separate scholarships.

The teams that neglected indoor will run well today, those that tried to do both will under-achieve.

Cross country needs to stick to the already stated 5 mens and 6 women's scholarships, in addition to the 12.6/18 track scholarships.

Then if you are on a xc scholarship you can't run indoor track only xc and outdoor. if you are on a track scholarship you can only run indoor and outdoor not cross country.

Make 8k the distance for both genders. Make xc about true distance running where it is unwise to use those dollars on 800/middle distance athletes.

Richer than most wrote:

Stanford 115

NM 165

BYU 175

NC State 200

Arkansas 215

NAU

Washington

Colorado

Alabama

That is where Alabama will finish. Their 5th will score 140.

You have Arkansas 5th without Gregory?

Plenty of freshmen making an appearance. I believe there will be some surprises among that class. Tar Heel lineup is particularly interesting in that it looks like a last chance/ first chance plan because all runners are either Sr or Fr.

Richer than most wrote:

Stanford 115

NM 165

BYU 175

NC State 200

Arkansas 215

NAU

Washington

Colorado

Alabama

That is where Alabama will finish. Their 5th will score 140.

solid picks...it'll be close for the last podium position

thats too bad about Gregory...I was hoping to see her run XC again. That takes Arkansas out of any team consideration in my mind.

my picks for overachievers:

nau

university of michigan

unc

michigan state

liberty

my picks for underachievers:

arkansas

georgia tech

furman

That doesn't tell us anything if you don't say where they will finish. I have NAU top 6. Are you predicting top 3? 1st? Furman underachieving? What does that mean? Nobody has picked them top 20 so they can't really go down.

.................. wrote:

I think what we are going to really learn is that track and cross country are separate sports with separate championships requiring separate scholarships.

The teams that neglected indoor will run well today, those that tried to do both will under-achieve.

Cross country needs to stick to the already stated 5 mens and 6 women's scholarships, in addition to the 12.6/18 track scholarships.

Then if you are on a xc scholarship you can't run indoor track only xc and outdoor. if you are on a track scholarship you can only run indoor and outdoor not cross country.

Make 8k the distance for both genders. Make xc about true distance running where it is unwise to use those dollars on 800/middle distance athletes.

Though few will agree with you, I think yours is the correct opinion.

Only modification I'd make to it is allow XC scholarship athletes to run both indoor and outdoor track but can only participate in 800 and longer distances. Not sure of the need to have men run 8k vs 10k... 10k seems fine... women to 8k? perhaps...

I doubt she runs given that she last ran XC at Club Nationals in 2019 and I cannot imagine she is close to peak fitness yet. Then again, why not? It is a free year eligibility-wise, and she would probably like to give it a go regardless.

Why not? Because somebody else wouldn't get to run. The coach will put the top 7 on the line.

per rankings:

over:

nau, ranked 9th, predict 5th

umich, ranked 8th, predict 7th

unc, unranked, predict top 15

mich state, ranked 7th, predict 6th

liberty, unranked, predict top 20/15

under:

arkansas, ranked 1st, predict 8th

georgia tech, ranked 15th, predict ~20th

furman, ranked 14th, predict 25th

Presumably.