Down goes the Dow

"The disconnect between fundamentals, i.e., earnings and earnings growth, and share prices should not be taken as a sign that fundamentals just don't matter; they just don't matter right now. Market participants are betting that low interest rates will be in place for many more years, and that simultaneously growth will reappear, providing fuel for the current rally."

-- Oliver Pursche, 8/15/16

Quote of the day wrote:

"The disconnect between fundamentals, i.e., earnings and earnings growth, and share prices should not be taken as a sign that fundamentals just don't matter; they just don't matter right now. Market participants are betting that low interest rates will be in place for many more years, and that simultaneously growth will reappear, providing fuel for the current rally."

-- Oliver Pursche, 8/15/16

Actually a pretty ignorant and telling quote from Mr. Pursche since written the 10 Year Treasury has gone up 1%, and bond proxy stocks are down about 10% on average. You just illustrated how the excuses for this market are made up and have little historical relationship to actual long term returns.

Igy

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

mellon wrote:

What's it like waking up every morning hoping today will be the day of the big crash so you can say "I told you so".

Interestingly while some are beating their chests with the market move, a closer look reveals interesting dispersions. The TINA Stocks (There Is No Alternative-dividend paying stocks) have followed the bond market down. These numbers are off the 52 week high: MLPs -8.9%, Telecom -10.6%, REITs -13.70%, Consumer Staples -9.68%, Healthcare -10.1%, and Utilities -12.4%.

Igy

Oh, the irony!

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Quote of the day wrote:

"The disconnect between fundamentals, i.e., earnings and earnings growth, and share prices should not be taken as a sign that fundamentals just don't matter; they just don't matter right now. Market participants are betting that low interest rates will be in place for many more years, and that simultaneously growth will reappear, providing fuel for the current rally."

-- Oliver Pursche, 8/15/16

Actually a pretty ignorant and telling quote from Mr. Pursche since written the 10 Year Treasury has gone up 1%, and bond proxy stocks are down about 10% on average. You just illustrated how the excuses for this market are made up and have little historical relationship to actual long term returns.

Igy

Seems to me that he got it right.

Yes, a 74% rise in the 10 Year Treasury Yield since he his comment. TLT, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF dropped in price 14.5% percent during the same period.......seems to me you don't know what your talking about.Igy

Lurker wrote:

Seems to me that he got it right.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Interestingly while some are beating their chests with the market move

Igy

I haven't heard anybody beating their chest over what the market is doing.

That's because nobody else is playing market guru with predictions on what it's going to do.

I don't have a problem with all of your sophisticated analytical data.

I just wish you would preface it with "Caution-The following is being done for my own entertainment. There is no evidence that it is helping any current investors".

mellon,

The caution should be applied to your views since it is based on nothing other than the direction of the market.

You should be happy.

Why you mad bro? Did you buy to many TINA stocks when that was the excuse of the moment?

Igy

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Yes, a 74% rise in the 10 Year Treasury Yield since he his comment. TLT, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF dropped in price 14.5% percent during the same period....

...seems to me you don't know what your talking about.

Igy

Lurker wrote:

Seems to me that he got it right.

He said interest rates are low - he's right.

He said growth will reappear - the jury's still out, but he's probably right.

He talked about fueling the "current rally" - 4 months later, the rally is quite alive.

He sure seems to know what he's talking about.

Lurker,

OK, but he was wrong on 11/4/2016--not ancient history. The rally is about algorithmic institutional trading, sorry to burst your bubble. As you agree there is no growth currently. And if it were to appear, is it already priced into the market?

Igy

"He said growth will reappear - the jury's still out, but he's probably right."

US Council on Competitiveness: "No Recovery: An analysis of Long-Term U.S. Productivity Decline."

http://www.gallup.com/reports/198776/no-recovery-analysis-long-term-productivity-decline.aspx?utm_source=blog&utm_campaign=TCB12616

"Conventional wisdom — as reported in many major newspapers and media

— tells us the U.S. economy is “recovering.” Well-meaning economists,

academics and government officials use the term “recovery” when discussing

the economy, implying that growth is getting stronger.

The study finds there is no recovery. Since 2007, U.S. GDP per capita growth

has been 1%.

The Great Recession may be over, but America is dangerously running

on empty."

What some see as economic recovery is fueled by debt and low interest rates. A truly phony, fake economy, and represented in the markets by stocks and bonds.

Igy

The US economy advanced an annualized 3.2 percent on quarter in the three months to September of 2016, up from 1.4 percent growth in the previous period and better than a 2.9 percent expansion in the advance estimate. It is the highest growth rate in two years, as consumer spending, exports and investment in structures rose faster than anticipated while fixed investment fell more, according to the second estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Lurker,

OK, but he was wrong on 11/4/2016

Igy

And you've been wrong on just about every other date.

.....and you will count your paper profits as proof of your wisdom....managing your E*Trade account....ploting your next trade with ouija board charts giving you the divining rod look into the future....

Igy

2/3. I don't own a Ouiji board, but you nailed the other two.

and you have yet to figure out you are tracing out someone else's trade...the same trade multiple and thousands of times...piling on the hubris and yet foolishness of it all...?and the E*Trader will provide liquidity for the institutional sales....but you don't have the experience to figure that out...but you will....you are just making the same mistakes millions before you have made....your beliefs are in fact what they are....common....average....

You assume too much.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Lurker,

OK, but he was wrong on 11/4/2016--not ancient history. The rally is about algorithmic institutional trading, sorry to burst your bubble. As you agree there is no growth currently. And if it were to appear, is it already priced into the market?

Igy

Sorry to burst your bubble, but institutional trading drives crashes/corrections too.

Also, I didn't say there was no growth. In fact, another poster has provided evidence that indeed there has been growth.

OK, I guess the $4.4 Trillion Fed balance sheet finally did the trick. Now I know why the market has gone up so much since 11/4/2016. Who could have predicted?