Down goes the Dow

agip,

What I find interesting is that just a few months ago the reason to purchase equities was low interest rates. The Fed Model or Dividend Discount Model was used as justification for higher valuations. Now that we have higher interest rates, the story become that higher growth supports higher valuations. In either case, there is little historical justification for either argument when weighed against current valuations and other economic factors. In my view it is all institutionally driven where traders mimic the same trend. If so, that is a very dangerous market.

On a running note, a break thru of sorts. Twelve days straight with only one of those days just a four mile walk, the rest running. I am actually getting dedicated. I tend to do better once I get a streak going. Saturdays I coach some friends and we are doing 4 x 800m hill cruise intervals in the foothills. Should be fun.

Hope your running is still progressing.

Igy

Three minutes -- 3! -- between posts by Igy and K5.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Go forth with confidence to managed your E*Trade account.

Oh, I will. I'll do so with the confidence that I understand basic mathematics (unlike you), that I will pay significantly less in fees, and that my investments will outperform yours (based on your views expressed here).

CAPE 10 = 26

S&P 500 EPS -17.7% since September 2014

GDP -2%

10 Year Treasury 2.34%

The only numbers that matter.

Igy,

You missed the most important one of all.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Big Dog Investments wrote:

I'm still in. Currently it's at 3x what I paid when Chicken Little warned against going long. The DGTD contrarian indicator is the closest thing I've seen to a sure bet.

Thanks for noticing me.

Thanks for giving us something to notice. That particular investment of mine is now up close to 250%. It's a good thing you warned against going long on that one.

Thanks for noticing me.

fair points on the market. But times change...economic conditions change...the econ numbers have improved so that's a more accurate story now.

Good news on the running. Good luck with the hills - they can be humbling.

I have my last road race of the season next week - I'm feeling confident. Had a good hilly tempo yesterday and set some training PRs. I know those dont' count but they do raise confidence.

Big,

Below was my actual comment on CHK. Of course you have always taken the comments of the Troll and attributed them to me, which by the way I told you were not mine. Fortunately the Moderators have done much with that nuisance. I have no reason not to wish you the best. My comments as listed below are market oriented.

Igy

"Big,

Best wishes on your CHK. I avoid speculative individual stocks. As I said before if I had to make an investment in CHK I would rather hold the bonds where the risk reward is more favorable.

In regards to market timing, you may, and the operative word is "may, be more of a market timer than I. I take my clues from valuations, economic indicators, and not technical indicators or the daily direction of the market.

Igy"

Read more:

https://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?board=1&id=7115929&thread=5369837#7115929#ixzz4RhtaPkJk

[quote]Ghost of Igloi wrote:

I take my clues from valuations, economic indicators, and not technical indicators or the daily direction of the market.

Igy"

I guess those clues must have told you we were in for the big crash you predicted 3 1/2 years ago.

How has that worked out for you?

Detector Dude you continue with your same fantasy, check in with the shrink. I'm not part of your K-5 feud.

Igy

There's a 65% chance that the U.S. stock market will rise in 2017

https://research.tdameritrade.com/grid/public/markets/news/story.asp?docKey=1-SN20161202006692&cid=1-SN20161202006692-MIT

No surprise there. The real surprise is the continued bearish sentiment on this thread for the past 3.5 years by the OP given all of the evidence to the contrary.

I thought it might be nice to offer a counter to the overwhelming bearish attitude here. Well Jeremy Siegel correctly predicted Dow 19K by the end of 2016 and now he's saying we may be only a few weeks from Dow 20K. Shalom.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/01/dow-could-rip-to-20000-this-month-whartons-siegel.html

Overwhelming Bearish sentiment. I think you need to rephrase that to overwhelming Bullish sentiment. In fact my Brearish yet balanced views generate a great deal of animis.

No, I'm right.

How can your views be both bearish and balanced?

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

CAPE 10 = 26

S&P 500 EPS -17.7% since September 2014

GDP -2%

10 Year Treasury 2.34%

The only numbers that matter.

Igy,

tragt hobn shoyn aumrekht wrote:

I thought it might be nice to offer a counter to the overwhelming bearish attitude here. Well Jeremy Siegel correctly predicted Dow 19K by the end of 2016 and now he's saying we may be only a few weeks from Dow 20K. Shalom.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/01/dow-could-rip-to-20000-this-month-whartons-siegel.html

Seigel forecast 2008:

He was right about 19K. It's quite telling that you had to go back over 8 years to find something he was wrong about.