Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Joe Beets wrote:http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/Don't make me laugh. You are the epitome of the WS doomsday mantra. Bearish prognosticators outnumber the Bulls by 10:1. Your employer tells you to play up the fear factor so that you can churn sales and reap fees from people who trust you. They are fools as you've so aptly described them yourself. Your hand is in their pockets.
So you're agreeing with Joe? That article sure seems to support what he wrote.
Joe,
OK, enjoy the laugh.
In regards to the discussion of net worth and paper wealth I have a couple of observations. Investors had similar experiences in 1999 and 2006, the hubris leading many to lever themselves into bad decisions.
For every stock or bond issued there is an associated entry on a corporate balance sheet. The viability of an investment in either is dependent upon cost and future earnings of the corporation. These factors actually have a negative correlation to recent stock market highs, when one considers traditional stock valuation metrics.
In regards to real estate valuations, low interest rates have allowed buyers to purchase homes at their upper budget limit, and with increased demand those prices floated higher. In a future market with higher mortgage rates one should expect to see falling demand along with price compression.
Igy
Your interpretation, which contrary to mine is always Bullish.
Well, no, that's not correct. My interpretation is that your article is quite bearish/fearful thus supporting Joe's post. It's obvious.
Did you read the article before posting it?
Is "Igy" short for "Ignorant"?
Glass more than half-full of something.....
Major U.S. stock indexes could be in for a fight to hang in record territory on Wednesday, with fewer traders expected to support a push higher as the Thanksgiving Day holiday exodus begins.
Investors will get a last big batch of economic data and minutes of the November Federal Reserve interest-rate policy meeting before the holiday break begins. U.S. markets will be closed Thursday and observe an early close on Friday.
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures eased 2 points to 18,993, while S&P 500 index futures slipped 1 point to 2,199.75. Nasdaq-100 futures fell 3.25 points to 4,871.50.
Major indexes hit record highs simultaneously for the second straight day on Wednesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.4% to finish at 19,023.87, its first session of moving past and closing above 19,000. The Dow's climb between 18,000 and 19,000 has taken 483 trading days, marking a 5.6% rise.
The S&P 500 index closed up 0.2% at a record 2,202.94, while the Nasdaq Composite Index gained 17.49 points to finish at a record 5,386.35. In addition, the Russell 2000 index hit a new record.
Even if the major indexes manage to deepen that record run on Wednesday, it may not be significant for the overall picture.
"The price action will only really become relevant on Monday, when 'normal service' resumes. I think we'll see a bit more of a short squeeze, but it's not 'real' buying per se, just a bit of momentum and a desire to squeeze the bears," said Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, in emailed comments.
A short squeeze refers to when short sellers of a security are being pushed out of their positions, adding upward pressure to a stock or an index.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
MarketWatch wrote:U.S. stock futures on Tuesday pointed to another push into record territory, as analysts said a rally for oil prices was spreading good vibes across
"On top of this, Donald Trump has confirmed that he will instruct the U.S. to withdraw from the Trans Pacific Partnership on his first day in office, a move that could stand to bolster the fortunes of U.S. businesses at least in the short to medium term, giving investors more to cheer," Blake added.
Which part of that was "bull"? The fact that futures (correctly) pointed to a record day, or what Trump said. Both are facts.
The only fun thing out of all of this is, we know he's lost his ass over the past 3 1/2 years.
Unfortunately it's not much fun for his clients.
See the Muppets wrote:
Unfortunately it's not much fun for his clients.
I guess I've hoped that his claim of having clients was BS.
If he does, I agree, sorry for them.
Another record! Life is good (unless you're one of Igy's Muppets.).
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
On 11/4/2016 the Dow closed at 17,888 and the S&P 500 closed at 2085. From an economic and market stand point nothing has changed other than a new round of speculation driven by large institutional investors.
One can view higher PEs and extended valuations and extrapolate that data as a "good thing." Or you can temper you enthusiasm and realize serious economic challenges remain, at a time of high government debt, obligations and slow economic growth.
I would prefer to be a Chicken Little rather than a Bloated Toad.
Igy
Big Dog Investments wrote:
Another record! Life is good (unless you're one of Igy's Muppets.).
Big,
How was AMZN working last week?
Oh yea, that's ancient history for a "successful" trader.
Igy
I bought AMZN about a month ago. Currently it's down less than 1%. The success of the trade will be determined when I sell it.
"Following news that its Alzheimer's drug has failed final stage trials, Eli Lilly stock is crashing this morning to 2 year lows. The 'safe haven', 'paid-to-wait' stock has tumbled almost 15% - erasing over 6 years of dividends, and sparking contagious selling across Biotech stocks."
Oh no. The Muppets bought on TINA thinking the dividends were safe, but forgot about the price paid.
Sorry, TINA, infrastructure spend, lower taxes all excuses to buy an overvalued stock market.
Ends in pain my Muppet friends.
Igy
Big Dog Investments wrote:
I bought AMZN about a month ago. Currently it's down less than 1%. The success of the trade will be determined when I sell it.
How about last week? You were down over ten percent my friend. The stock will be cut in half by the end of this cycle.
Good luck though.
Igy
Based on that logic, I'm up 10% this week.
And if you're suggesting it's going to drop a lot, then I may just buy some more. You're not exactly known for correctly predicting the market.
Big,
Historically there has never been a company that sustained a price to earnings ratio of 100 through a full market cycle. AMZN is at 193 times previous 52 weeks earnings. Earnings growth is derived from AWS (Amazon Web Services) their cloud based web hosting service. The same business that IBM, MSFT, ORCL, GOOG are increasingly moving into. AMZN was the first mover.
I prefer to base investment decisions on facts rather than charts and momentum indicators. I find it telling that most investors spend little time looking at facts and market history, this alone confirms my belief that the full cycle conclusion will be one to remember.
Have a good Thanksgiving.
Igy
Hso why are you wrong so often?