So, you're lying again.
You said:
Europe Excess Death Totals Weeks 1-17- All Ages: 2018: 1,244,275
Europe Excess Death Totals Weeks 1-17- All Ages: 2020- 831,679
The reality (as those who look at the provided source):
111,335 excess deaths after 17 weeks of 2018.
159,484 excess deaths after 17 weeks of 2020.
Please stop lying, Allen53.
2600 bro wrote:
Ok explain why 10% of the people in the world didn't die from SARS or MERS then?
dunes runner wrote:
Because there was no reason to.
I am Sam wrote:
You know the answer though
Yes. People's natural immunities.
I don't think Allen53 can stop lying. He's too far gone into conspiracy theory la-la-land where all the media and all the governments of every country in the world are part of a giant international cabal determined to...something something...precious bodily fluids...Protocols of the Elders of Zion...profit! His posts are so divorced from any recognizable reality that it's not worth responding.
dunes runner wrote:
2600 bro wrote:
Ok explain why 10% of the people in the world didn't die from SARS or MERS then?
dunes runner wrote:
Because there was no reason to.
I am Sam wrote:
You know the answer though
Yes. People's natural immunities.
You should open an immunology startup. You'd make a fortune as you clearly have the secret answer to all the world's viral diseases.
Hmmm you clearly don't know anything about SARS and MERS. Good try though.
dunes runner wrote:
Yes. People's natural immunities.
How could a disease kill 2.2 million Americans with a fatality rate of 0.5%? Well, how about if it hit twice because immunity was not produced or not for a long period by getting sick once?
The White House is privately saying that the death toll will grow to 3,000 per day by the end of the month. Trump finally admitted that 100,000 deaths were likely but the private predictions indicate that it will happen this month, as I have long predicted, and they think that the rate is going to rise, presumably because a) there are lots and lots of new cases within the last month that could turn bad and b) a bunch of states are re-opening prematurely.
Now, with regard to mortality rates, let's look at the actual figures, who do not even include the future deaths for current cases. In the U.S., there are about 1.2 million cases from 7.4 million tests, and 69,335 deaths. The death rate is 5.8% among the cases at the moment. The positive test rate is 16%. Surely, the pool that has been tested is far more likely to have the disease than those not tested, since you don't typically get tested unless you are really sick, unless you're wealthy or connected. So, the proportion with the coronavirus is surely far less than 16% in this country. If the Trump administration really wanted to know, it would have nationalized essential industries to produce the requisite number of tests. In WWII, we could build tens of thousands of liberty ships, but this administration can't even create the conditions for hundreds of millions of lab tests.
IHME just almost doubled its estimates of US deaths by August 4.
It had been around 72,000 and now it's 134,475
Grim.
Statistically I wonder what they got so wrong. It wasn't just opening states...they underestimated deaths even before states started reopening.
THey are pandemic experts...what did they get so wrong and why did it take so long to change it?Is there something about this disease that doesn't fit previous models?
agip wrote:
IHME just almost doubled its estimates of US deaths by August 4.
It had been around 72,000 and now it's 134,475
Grim.
Statistically I wonder what they got so wrong. It wasn't just opening states...they underestimated deaths even before states started reopening.
THey are pandemic experts...what did they get so wrong and why did it take so long to change it?Is there something about this disease that doesn't fit previous models?
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
It is my understanding that the original model was never intended to be used to predict total deaths, but to predict peak death rates to estimate peak hospital loads. There was some poor science communication along the way. The crux of the issue is that they assumed a symmetrical curve for death rate, while it is more likely that the curve will have a longer tail after hitting the peak. This issue was identified early on by Carl Bergstrom (not part of the IHME team).
https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1250304069119275009Maybe now they are now pivoting with a new underlying model? Not sure. In any case, I like this model better:
https://covid19-projections.com/agip wrote:
IHME just almost doubled its estimates of US deaths by August 4.
It had been around 72,000 and now it's 134,475
Grim.
Statistically I wonder what they got so wrong. It wasn't just opening states...they underestimated deaths even before states started reopening.
THey are pandemic experts...what did they get so wrong and why did it take so long to change it?Is there something about this disease that doesn't fit previous models?
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
By the way, the IHME model has been removed by the CDC website, and the Gu model (
https://covid19-projections.com/about/) is on there now.
Libertarian Centrist wrote:
agip wrote:
IHME just almost doubled its estimates of US deaths by August 4.
It had been around 72,000 and now it's 134,475
Grim.
Statistically I wonder what they got so wrong. It wasn't just opening states...they underestimated deaths even before states started reopening.
THey are pandemic experts...what did they get so wrong and why did it take so long to change it?Is there something about this disease that doesn't fit previous models?
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-americaIt is my understanding that the original model was never intended to be used to predict total deaths, but to predict peak death rates to estimate peak hospital loads. There was some poor science communication along the way. The crux of the issue is that they assumed a symmetrical curve for death rate, while it is more likely that the curve will have a longer tail after hitting the peak. This issue was identified early on by Carl Bergstrom (not part of the IHME team).
https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1250304069119275009Maybe now they are now pivoting with a new underlying model? Not sure. In any case, I like this model better:
https://covid19-projections.com/
Update: the IHME model has been updated with a new underlying mathematical model.
https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1257419249653551106Allen53 Can't Count wrote:
So, you're lying again.
You said:
Europe Excess Death Totals Weeks 1-17- All Ages: 2018: 1,244,275
Europe Excess Death Totals Weeks 1-17- All Ages: 2020- 831,679
The reality (as those who look at the provided source):
111,335 excess deaths after 17 weeks of 2018.
159,484 excess deaths after 17 weeks of 2020.
Please stop lying, Allen53.
Excess over what?
Stupid post
zxcvzcxv wrote:
How could a disease kill 2.2 million Americans with a fatality rate of 0.5%? Well, how about if it hit twice because immunity was not produced or not for a long period by getting sick once?
So the covid false flag virus wipes out 0.1% of the population (including all other flu deaths that have mysteriously vanished and have been counted as covid when they weren't) - then it comes back a year later and does the same thing again????
Something is seriously wrong with your observation skills and your logic.
Dangerous virus false flag:
Previous X year averages? It's how flu season severity is measured every. single. year.
Mein Gott wrote:
Allen53 Can't Count wrote:
So, you're lying again.
You said:
Europe Excess Death Totals Weeks 1-17- All Ages: 2018: 1,244,275
Europe Excess Death Totals Weeks 1-17- All Ages: 2020- 831,679
The reality (as those who look at the provided source):
111,335 excess deaths after 17 weeks of 2018.
159,484 excess deaths after 17 weeks of 2020.
Please stop lying, Allen53.
Excess over what?
Stupid post
Allen53 wrote:
The most morbid covid-cases are those who wear masks outdoors with no one near or alone in their cars.
Go get a dictionary and look up the word morbid in this context
dunes runner wrote:
2600 bro wrote:
Ok explain why 10% of the people in the world didn't die from SARS or MERS then?
dunes runner wrote:
Because there was no reason to.
I am Sam wrote:
You know the answer though
Yes. People's natural immunities.
Is that the same reason people didn't get Ebola?
(note...this is a clue, even you should work it out)
Not much to say other than the likes of dunes runner and Allen53 are really, really stupid and ill-informed. There should be tracking of their lies and misinformation campaign and legal accountability.
dunes runner wrote:
People's natural immunities.
I am Sam wrote:
Is that the same reason people didn't get Ebola?
Yes. People's natural immunities.
Yes... that well documented natural immunity to... Ebola. Keep going...
dunes runner wrote:
Yes. People's natural immunities.
