NXN 2024 - The Way Too Early Preview - BOYS

SWFan!! wrote:

nxn fan1 wrote:

who has the edge right now between herriman and cba? niwot raced really well at nxn last year so they are always in contention.

If we pretend speed ratings are perfect and look at those numbers, then Herriman has the edge over CBA. CBA has a stronger front runner, but Herriman's front runner is strong enough where when counting team points they should only be a couple points difference. Most of the highest speed rated boys will not count towards team points. Last year the speed rating for the 1st team points person was 193 and 10th place was 188. It will be faster this year, but that gives us something to work with. Herriman's 4th runner had a 185 speed rating and CBA's 4th was 182. Their 5th runners were about equal. Herriman's top 4 would give them a lower score. I wouldn't count out Niwot. Their top runner hasn't raced well the last two races. If he can bounce back, then Niwot will also be in the mix. Niwot's 5th appears to be faster than Herriman and CBA's 5th, so even if their top runner isn't back in full force, they may still have an outside shot at the win. I think it's close enough that it will come down to who has the best day.

Again- I do believe that speed ratings aren't perfect, so this is all just an estimation based on the information that we have at this point.

nxn fan1 wrote:

SWFan!! wrote:

If we pretend speed ratings are perfect and look at those numbers, then Herriman has the edge over CBA. CBA has a stronger front runner, but Herriman's front runner is strong enough where when counting team points they should only be a couple points difference. Most of the highest speed rated boys will not count towards team points. Last year the speed rating for the 1st team points person was 193 and 10th place was 188. It will be faster this year, but that gives us something to work with. Herriman's 4th runner had a 185 speed rating and CBA's 4th was 182. Their 5th runners were about equal. Herriman's top 4 would give them a lower score. I wouldn't count out Niwot. Their top runner hasn't raced well the last two races. If he can bounce back, then Niwot will also be in the mix. Niwot's 5th appears to be faster than Herriman and CBA's 5th, so even if their top runner isn't back in full force, they may still have an outside shot at the win. I think it's close enough that it will come down to who has the best day.

Again- I do believe that speed ratings aren't perfect, so this is all just an estimation based on the information that we have at this point.

it seems as though you are taking only nxr speed ratings, cba #4 is a 185 and there #5 is a 184-185 guy.

jabouko wrote:

knees_on_borrowed_time wrote:

I’m admittedly not going to read all these pages to see if this has been covered.

But anyone else thinks it’s really wide open for the individual race? I can’t think of anyone I’m confident of being top 5, let alone winning. I feel like there are at least 20 guys you make a case for being top 5, maybe more. And no obvious “the guy to beat.”

I'm with you on this. Not a season with a dominant athlete putting up big speed rating numbers. Briefly checking for contenders:

HL - Gonzalez, Mechura, Putz
MW - Crane, Quagliaroli, Bontrager, Kimmel, Hansen
SE - Smith, Latham, Steorts, Sheets, Mantecon
NE - Barrett
SW - Evans, Steadman, Vause, le Roux
NW - Kitchen, Powell, Burton, Brownell, Stadlander
NY - Sykes? maybe no one from NY

With team points to worry about, I could see Barrett, Leonard, and Mantecon playing it same, but I think any of these guys could make top-10. Some of these guys may run for the win and miss out on All American

edit-- And thats not evening counting California -- Kushen, Pretre, Fitchen-Young, Noonan, Holman, or whoever makes it in

CIF section finals wrote:

knees_on_borrowed_time wrote:

I’m admittedly not going to read all these pages to see if this has been covered.

But anyone else thinks it’s really wide open for the individual race? I can’t think of anyone I’m confident of being top 5, let alone winning. I feel like there are at least 20 guys you make a case for being top 5, maybe more. And no obvious “the guy to beat.”

I think it’s always going to be wide open for an individual title at NXN.

Last year, Danny Simmons was considered the heavy favorite, but did he win? No.

2 years ago, everyone thought that no one other than one of the Young twins would win. But did that happen? No.

This year, there is ANOTHER Young in the conversation to win NXN: Eli FITCHEN Young. But he has to qualify first

CIF section finals wrote:

knees_on_borrowed_time wrote:

I’m admittedly not going to read all these pages to see if this has been covered.

But anyone else thinks it’s really wide open for the individual race? I can’t think of anyone I’m confident of being top 5, let alone winning. I feel like there are at least 20 guys you make a case for being top 5, maybe more. And no obvious “the guy to beat.”

I think it’s always going to be wide open for an individual title at NXN.

Last year, Danny Simmons was considered the heavy favorite, but did he win? No.

2 years ago, everyone thought that no one other than one of the Young twins would win. But did that happen? No.

This year, there is ANOTHER Young in the conversation to win NXN: Eli FITCHEN Young. But he has to qualify first