Joe Beets wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:Joe,
....and Icahn reduced his holdings in CHK.
Igy
Done for tax purposes, so likely not a buy signal. I'm staying out.
I'm still in. Currently it's at 3x what I paid when Chicken Little warned against going long. The DGTD contrarian indicator is the closest thing I've seen to a sure bet.
Charting the S&P 500's bullish-leaning holding pattern ahead of the Fed
terrible prediction of the day:
RBS said in January 2016 to sell everything. They predicted a cataclysmic year.
whoops!
US stocks up 7% year to date
http://money.cnn.com/2016/01/12/investing/markets-sell-everything-cataclysmic-year-rbs/index.html
THE SKY IS FALLING, THE SKY IS FALLING!!!!
Wait...what?
[quote]agip wrote:
terrible prediction of the day:
RBS said in January 2016 to sell everything. They predicted a cataclysmic year.
whoops!
US stocks up 7% year to date
I did not know that the 2016 calendar year ended on September 20th.
S&P 500 Total Return Year to Date Price Returns (Daily):6.34% for Sept. 19, 2016.
Nor did I know that 6.34% rounded to 7.00%.
By the way, the return on the 12 mos ending on 9/20/16 is only 4.69%.
Chicken Little wrote:
THE SKY IS FALLING, THE SKY IS FALLING!!!!
Wait...what?
R U autistic or something?
Yes.
Wall Street stocks were poised for opening gains Wednesday, keying off rises in global equities after the Bank of Japan overhauled its monetary policy framework, and with a Federal Reserve interest rate decision ahead.
Stronger oil prices also helped underpin gains for stock futures.
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose 76 points, or 0.4%, to 18,124, while S&P 500 futures added 8.9 points, or 0.4%, to 2,140. Nasdaq-100 futures gained 25 points, or 0.5%, to 4,823.50.
Stocks pared gains to end flat ahead of the central bank decisions on Tuesday. The S&P 500 index finished up less than a point at 2,139.76.
Financial stocks rallied in Tokyo, with the Nikkei 225 index closing 1.9% higher after the BOJ kept its deposit rate unchanged at negative 0.1%. It also introduced a zero interest-rate target for 10-year government bonds, part of what analysts are calling "yield curve control." Japan's 10-year sovereign bond yields hit 0% Wednesday, for the first time since March.
"A steeper yield curve provides the motivation for banks to encourage customers to borrow, and is typically associated with a strengthening economy," said Rebecca O'Keeffe, head of investment at stockbroker Interactive Investor, in a note.
As financial companies tend to borrow short and lend long, the BOJ announcement provided "rocket fuel" for Japan banks to rally, she added.
BOJ sparks global gains: That upbeat sentiment spread to Europe, were banks also rallied, lifting the Stoxx Europe 600 up 1%. U.S. stock futures rose in tandem.
"The risk here was that no change would be seen, but the subtle tweaks have been enough to bolster market sentiment across the board, and as it stands, this is going to help drive Wall Street notably higher at the open," said Paul Webb, head of European retail at ADS Securities, in a note.
The Japanese yen initially sold off, then pared losses, though that came after the close of Tokyo markets. Against the dollar, the yen last traded at Yen101.42 after closing late Tuesday in New York at Yen101.72.
"All told, I believe the BOJ's pledge to keep policy loose not only until they achieve their inflation target, but until they overshoot their target on a sustainable level, is the most radical thing I've heard from a central bank," said Marshall Gittler, head of investment research at FXPrimus, in a note to clients.
In the long term, Gittler said, that should weaken the yen because it "promises they will just keep on trying and trying. But in the short term, I'd say a lot depends on what the Fed decides tonight."
Fed in the spotlight: With most analysts not expecting a change in U.S. interest rates, the talking point will be the Federal Open Market Committee's accompanying statement. Another will be whether the Fed hints at future policy changes, now the odds of a December Fed rate increase have risen to 58%, said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior market analyst at London Capital Group.
The big risk to a more hawkish Fed is the dovish stance seen across the globe, she argued.
"As the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England display an ultra-expansive stance, the Reserve Bank of Australia and New Zealand leave the door open for more action if needed, it is difficult for the Fed to act alone," she said.
The decision from the Fed is due at 2 p.m. Eastern Time, followed by a press conference with Chairwoman Janet Yellen. No other key economic data is scheduled.
More gains! This market is resilient!
Stating reality,
Plenty of Muppets that believe an economy that is so weak that it can't handle a quarter of a percent increase in interest rates is a good thing. Has nothing to do with a resilient market, rather more a belief that economic fundamentals have changed and price discovery has no place in the new economic order. We'll see how long that lasts. One thing for sure, the longer it goes, the greater reversion to mean.
Igy
Nonsense. Inflation is non-existent and we are at full employment. What else would the Fed do?
OK wise one, then why didn't the Fed after seven and a half years, and with a balance sheet of $4.4 Trillion move off the zero bound?
Check your current events. The Fed stood pat today.
Kiplio wrote:
Nonsense. Inflation is non-existent and we are at full employment. What else would the Fed do?
One of the desenters in today's Fed voting...
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Kiplio wrote:Nonsense. Inflation is non-existent and we are at full employment. What else would the Fed do?
One of the desenters in today's Fed voting...
Inflation is non existent?
Actually its not, even by government statistics that calculate inflation by adjusting for taking out the inflation.
I think many Americans would see inflation even higher measured by what they are experiencing in their own lives. I think its a big reason why so much of the American electorate is going against the established order in one way or another. They see a disconnect between themselves and these rosy economic indicators they read.
That is the problem I see with this market. Too many headwinds. Even if Hillary wins I foresee gridlock. Don't be so confident that there will be some big infrastructure spending program to stimulate the economy.
In Europe none of their problems have gone away. The news uses the phrase "post Brexit". But it hasn't even started yet. The entire Euro currency unwinding is still a real risk.
China continues to run up debt at a fast pace. Being a command economy they may very well avoid a crises. The government could just take possession of any debt. But running up a lot of debt just to achieve growth for the sake of growth is not healthy in the long run for the world economy.
For the forseeable future the stock market could continue to go up. Basically it always goes up, except when it doesn't. And nobody should be surprised when it goes down.
ryan foreman wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:One of the desenters in today's Fed voting...
Inflation is non existent?
Actually its not, even by government statistics that calculate inflation by adjusting for taking out the inflation.
The current U.S. inflation rate as reported on September 18 is 1.1%. While not technically "non existent", in historical terms it is quite low.
U.S. stock futures inched higher early Thursday, putting the equity market on track to build on the prior day's gains, which came after the Federal Reserve's latest update on monetary policy.
The Fed stood pat on interest rates on Wednesday, but Chairwoman Janet Yellen indicated an interest rate hike is likely by year's end as she expressed confidence in the U.S. economy.
S&P 500 futures were up 6.55 points, or 0.3%, to 2,162.75 early Thursday, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose 58 points, or 0.3%, to 18,276. Nasdaq-100 futures gained 16.25 points, or 0.3%, to 4,866.25.
On Wednesday, the S&P 500 ended 1.1% higher, while the Dow jumped by 0.9%, or 164 points, as each gauge finished in the green for a second consecutive session. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite tacked on 1% and scored a record closing high.
"The fact we saw no change [in U.S. interest rates] certainly gave equity markets something to cheer," said Jamieson Blake, retail sales manager at ADS Securities, in note. A low-rate environment has been boosting stocks and other riskier assets for years.
"This upside did, however, appear to have been fully priced in by last night's close, with Wall Street currently looking to start Thursday's session little changed," Blake added.
"The challenge is adjusting monetary policy before inflationary pressures come to bear," he said. "With this in mind, we should expect even relatively minor numbers like the existing home sales ... to remain very much in focus."
Economic news: A release on weekly jobless claims is slated to hit at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, with economists polled by MarketWatch forecasting 260,000 claims. An August report for the Chicago Fed's national activity index is also due at that time.
August figures for existing home sales and leading indicators are expected at 10 a.m. Eastern, with economists predicting a reading of 5.48 million for the housing-related release.
Ryan,
Good analysis. Few who post here have anything other than fantasy support for a higher market. I suppose paying a higher price for each unit of earnings makes sense if you're a Muppet.
Igy
Big Dog makes a killing on a company that is selling productive assets and raising capital thru a stock offering just to survive. His signature purchase may still end as dog pooh on Big's living room carpet.
Big Dog Investments wrote:
Joe Beets wrote:Done for tax purposes, so likely not a buy signal. I'm staying out.
I'm still in. Currently it's at 3x what I paid when Chicken Little warned against going long. The DGTD contrarian indicator is the closest thing I've seen to a sure bet.
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/just-plain-pathetic/Kiplio wrote:
Nonsense. Inflation is non-existent and we are at full employment. What else would the Fed do?
Required reading material for Muppets.
Igy