Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Goooooodbye,
Think so, the last two 50% market drops were far from expected.
Igy
Drops are routine.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Goooooodbye,
Think so, the last two 50% market drops were far from expected.
Igy
Drops are routine.
Gooooodbye,
OK, Mr. Hello, how many 50% drop have there been in the last 100 years? What about the last 20 years?
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Waiting for the next drop....life can have unexpected downturns!
I replied to this post. Drops are routine. They are not unexpected. Agree or disagree, but don't change the narrative.
Goooooodbye,
Yes Sir! Whatever you say, sir?
Igy
Damn straight.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Econ,
Yes I did, what was your conclusion that was different from mine?
Igy
Stockman points out that Trump believes the Fed has been a problem and that the market is overvalued. Do you not support those positions?
Econ,
I believe Federal Reserve QE programs have inflated stocks, bonds, and commercial real estate. It is a common view held be Stan Drukenmiller, Sam Zell, Bill Gross, Carl Icahn, George Soros, Mark Faber, Jim Rogers, John Hussman, Jeffrey Gundlach to name but a few. There is no common thread here to their political views in this Presidential election.
It is your bias, not mine.
Igy
I'll take that as a yes.
Econ,
Take as it is, a NO.
It is your bias, not mine.
Igy
No? Do you seriously expect me to believe that you do not believe the Fed has been a problem and that the market is overvalued? Your posts in this thread suggest that you definitely support those positions.
Econ,
No, to the conclusion you wish to reach, that is, that my posts have anything to do with my presidential political preferences. I know too well your twisting practices.
Igy
Oh, the irony!
Wall Street was facing a downbeat end to the week on Friday, with investors staying on the sidelines ahead of inflation data, seen as a factor in the Federal Reserve's interest rate deliberations.
Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 49 points, or 0.3%, to 18,066, while those for the S&P 500 index dropped 6.15 points, or 0.3%, to 2,131.50. Futures for the Nasdag-100 index gave up 11 points, or 0.2%, to 4,802.75.
On Thursday, U.S. stocks finished higher as an Apple Inc.-inspired (AAPL) rally in the tech sector helped to lift the broader market.
"As markets increasingly consolidate, it appears as though traders are now just preparing for the FOMC and BOJ meetings next week," said Richard Perry, market analyst at Hantec Markets, in a note.
The U.S. Federal Open Market Committee and the Bank of Japan both wrap up their policy meetings on Wednesday next week. The BOJ is seen as easing policy slightly, while the Fed is widely expected to keep rates on hold. The CME FedWatch tool is currently showing a 12% probability of a rate hike at the Sept. 20-21 meeting.
There are no Fed speakers ahead of the meeting, as the central bank is in its blackout period.
"Perhaps the final game-changer could be U.S. CPI inflation, released [premarket Friday]. But once more, there is little expectation of any pick-up that would shout out for a rate hike," Perry said.
Economic docket: The inflation data for August are due at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, and they are expected to show consumer prices rose 0.1% month-on-month. Core inflation -- which strips out volatile items such as energy and food prices -- is forecast to come in at 0.2%.
A reading on consumer sentiment for September is due at 10 a.m. Eastern, followed by data on household net worth for the second quarter at noon.
Helloooooo? wrote:
[quote]Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Waiting for the next drop....life can have unexpected downturns!
I replied to this post. Drops are routine. They are not unexpected.
And this is reassuring how?
Irony Mann wrote:
Oh, the irony!
Mann:
http://www.wineexpress.com/shopping/prod_detail/main.asp?productID=34315Hi, Igy/K5! It's been said that the definition of insanity is repeating the same thing over and over while expecting a different result. That sure sounds like you!
Ah yes the insane Detector Dude.
Just for you, nice melody and lyrics.
http://www.letssingit.com/dr.-...ay-bj6ngnh
They're coming to take you away
September 16, 2016
Earnings Scorecard: For Q2 2016, 70% of the companies in the S&P 500 reported earnings above the mean estimate and 53% of the companies in the S&P 500 reported sales above the mean estimate.
Earnie wrote:
September 16, 2016
Earnings Scorecard: For Q2 2016, 70% of the companies in the S&P 500 reported earnings above the mean estimate and 53% of the companies in the S&P 500 reported sales above the mean estimate.
Earnie's numbers are non-GAAP (non-Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) for earnings. The GAAP equivalent number is a 36% beat, or 34% less than what Earnie quoted. The GAAP PE of 25.10 is the highest since 12/31/2009, high is bad.
Igy
What's really wrong with Ernie's claim (from Factset BTW) is:(1) The median estimate for Q2 earnings was MINUS 2.6%http://lipperalpha.financial.thomsonreuters.com/2016/07/sp-500-earnings-dashboard-2/(2) Whether you talk GAAP or forward earnings, the PE is above the 10 year average:
Earnings Growth Not Expected to Return Until Q4 2016
Analysts currently expect revenue growth to return in Q3 2016 and earnings growth to return in Q4 2016. In terms of earnings, the estimated growth rates for Q3 2016 and Q4 2016 are -2.1% and 5.8%. In terms of revenues, the estimated growth rates for Q3 2016 and Q4 2016 are 2.5% and 5.2%. For all of 2016, analysts are projecting earnings to decline year-over-year (-0.2%), but revenues to increase yearover-year (2.0%).
For all of 2017, analysts are projecting earnings growth of 13.4% and revenue growth of 6.1%.
Valuation: Forward P/E Ratio is 16.7, above the 10-Year Average (14.3)
The forward 12-month P/E ratio is 16.7. This P/E ratio is above the 5-year average forward 12-month P/E ratio of 14.8, and above the 10-year verage forward 12-month P/E ratio of 14.3. It is also above the forward 12-month P/E ratio of 16.6 recorded at the start of the third quarter (June 30). Since the start of the third quarter, the price of the index has increased by 2.3%, while the forward 12-month EPS estimate has increased by 1.9%.
At the sector level, the Energy (57.0) sector has the highest forward 12-month P/E ratio, while the Financials (13.1) sector has the lowest forward 12-month P/E ratio. Nine of the ten sectors have forward 12-month P/E ratios that are above their 10-year averages, led by the Energy (65.4 vs. 16.8) sector. The Telecom Services (13.6) is the only sector with a forward 12-month P/E ratio below its 10-year average (14.6).
https://www.factset.com/websitefiles/PDFs/earningsinsight/earningsinsight_9.16.16
We presently have a bear flag in major market indexes, and my guess as to the reason is (1) Previous expectations for positive market eps in Q3 are being unwound; (2) People have discovered what time of year this is.
Perhaps a buying opportunity around election time (January Effect again), assuming present projectsions for Q4 earnings aren't unwound as well.