Down goes the Dow

U.S. stocks on Wednesday were on track to open with small gains, as equity benchmarks attempted to recoup some of the prior session's selloff.

Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 27 points, or 0.2%, to 18,036, while those for the S&P 500 index climbed 3.80 points, or 0.2%, to 2,126.00. Futures for the Nasdaq-100 index gained 13.75 points, or 0.3%, to 4,737.75.

All three stock-index gauges on Tuesday suffered big losses as a sharp slump in energy prices and uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's plans for monetary policy spooked investors out of equities. The S&P 500 index ended the day 1.5% lower, while the Dow average lost 1.4%, enough to erase their solid gains from Monday.

But on Wednesday, oil futures rebounded, pulling U.S. stocks higher with them ahead of the open. Crude oil climbed 0.3%, while Brent rose 0.2%.

The Energy Information Administration later on Wednesday releases its weekly inventory data, forecast to show a rebound in stockpiles.

Fed watching: However, traders were still hesitant of dipping their toes too deep into stocks ahead of the closely watched Federal Reserve meeting on Sept. 20-21.

"With the U.S. central bank now in blackout period ahead of the decision next Wednesday, there is little in the way of positive drivers helping underpin the market at this time," said Michael Hewson chief market analyst at CMC Markets, in a note.

"On the plus side, we won't have to listen to the arguments over whether Fed policy makers think they should or shouldn't raise rates when they convene to meet next week," he added. "Though it is clear that despite the rebound in the U.S. dollar over the past few days, it would be a major surprise if the Fed did anything at all next week."

The CME FedWatch Tool is showing a 15% probability of a rate increase next week. Goldman Sachs on Monday cut its September hike odds to 25% from 40% following dovish comments from Fed Gov. Lael Brainard.

The economic calendar was relatively thin on Wednesday, with the only major release the August import-price index, due at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time.

Market not bouncing back, trading below May 2015 previous high....Life is Good!

I'll take that bet.

Fax,

What bet is that?

Igy

Canary in the coal mine....

https://mobile.twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/776058786654089217?p=v

"If a person can be too smart for his own good, as the aphorism goes, portfolio manager John Hussman may be feeling the agony of high intelligence right about now....Hussman’s persistently poor performance is an object lesson in the futility of trying to outsmart the market, a temptation to which some very smart people succumb either through security selection or market timing."

From "Hussman's Returns, Like His Forecasts, Are Dismal"

Research Magazine

Gil Weinreich wrote:

"If a person can be too smart for his own good, as the aphorism goes, portfolio manager John Hussman may be feeling the agony of high intelligence right about now....Hussman’s persistently poor performance is an object lesson in the futility of trying to outsmart the market, a temptation to which some very smart people succumb either through security selection or market timing."

From "Hussman's Returns, Like His Forecasts, Are Dismal"

Research Magazine

Gil,

You published that two years ago before you left Research Magazine, a Wall Street media rag. It is about time you did some recent research, Hussman Total Return Fund number 3 out of 345 funds over the past year.

Igy

Almost back to where they were 5 years ago.

Gil,

True, but like your career, stuff happens. It's all cyclical you know.

Igy

U.S. stock futures pointed to gains for Wall Street Thursday, finding support as oil prices began to push higher, but investors still have to assess a raft of data that could influence the case for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.

Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 43 points, or 0.2%, to 17,961.00, while those for the S&P 500 index added 5.2 points, or 0.3%, to 2,118.50. Futures for the Nasdaq-100 index climbed 11.75 points, or 0.3%, to 4,740.25.

Futures started showing more of an advance as oil futures turned higher, with Brent crude up nearly 1%. West Texas Intermediate was up a more modest 0.3%.

Slumping crude-oil prices weighed on stocks on Wednesday, leaving the Dow industrials and the S&P 500 to close in negative territory.

Data deluge: But the direction of Thursday's trading action could come down to a deluge of economic data arriving premarket. In the limelight are retail sales for August, out at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, as they work as a bellwether for the broader economy.

Sales have been somewhat soft in 2016, and economists polled by MarketWatch expect August to be no different--they forecast a 0.1% dip last month, slightly weaker than in July. Retail sales excluding volatile auto sales are forecast to have risen 0.2%.

"This won't be enough to shift markets expectations on a rate move, but an upside surprise is likely to push the U.S. dollar higher," said Hussein Sayed, chief market strategist at FXTM, in a note.

The ICE dollar index was 0.1% higher at 95.363 in early premarket trade.

Traders are closely watching economic data to gauge whether the readings will move the dial on a rate move from the Fed. The central bank is widely expected to hold fire at its Sept. 20-21 meeting, with the CME FedWatch Tool pointing to an only 15% probability of a rate hike. However, for the December meeting, the probability currently stands at almost 53%.

There won't be any comments from Fed officials in the run-up to the meeting as the central bank is in its so-called blackout period.

Also on the data docket on Thursday are weekly jobless claims for last week, along with the August Producer Price Index and the July current account figures. The reports are all due out at 8:30 a.m. Eastern.

At the same time, the so-called Philly Fed data--a reading of manufacturing in the Philadelphia region--and the Empire state index for September come out.

At 9:15 a.m. Eastern, industrial production and capacity utilization for August are released, followed by business inventories for July at 10 a.m. Eastern.

Fresh intraday highs! Life is grand!

Waiting for the next drop....life can have unexpected downturns!

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Waiting for the next drop....life can have unexpected downturns!

A drop is never unexpected.

Goooooodbye,

Think so, the last two 50% market drops were far from expected.

Igy

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/fast-money-interview-on-cnbc-a-new-sheriff-in-washington-could-mean-a-panic-on-wall-street/

Why am I not surprised that you're a Trump supporter?

Econ 101,

The posting of a video with someone elses view does not constitute support of a candidate. The video is an interview with David Stockman and why a Trump election would be bad for the market.

Why am I not surprised of your response?

In case you haven't figured it our, half the country dislikes Trump and the other half dislikes Clinton.

So what?

Igy

Sorry, I thought you had watched the video.

Econ,

Yes I did, what was your conclusion that was different from mine?

Igy