Jonny Mellor will break 2:10 and top 20,he is training really well out in France and in great form.
Jonny Mellor will break 2:10 and top 20,he is training really well out in France and in great form.
Birkoboy wrote:
Jonny Mellor will break 2:10 and top 20,he is training really well out in France and in great form.
Agree, especially the top 20. I have him at 15.
Aussiestatman wrote:
Aussiestatman wrote:
Next is Chris Thompson with a PB of 2.11.19 from way back in 2014 here. Was 11th then and had a good second in a half this year in 61.07.
Thompson is selected to represent the UK in the world half champs 13 days after. Has to choose one or be below his best in Poland.
Fixed. Declined to run in Poland.
Aussiestatman wrote:
Aussiestatman wrote:
26th finisher could be Michael Clohisey after his 24th here last year in 2.15.06. Then sixth in Dublin in October in 2.13.19 in a PB.
Next should be Florian Carvalho with a PB of 2.12.53 when 11th in Paris last year. Is no chance of ever gouging the 6 minutes required to chase a NR. That record dates back to the golden age of French marathonning, quirkily reported here:
https://www.time-to-run.com/marathon/paris/rotich-2003Florian previously was one of his country's most consistent 1500m runners from 2011 to 2013 with three times sub 3.34.
28th may be Josh Griffiths, whose PB of 2.14.25 was set here in finishing twentieth last year.
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2017/apr/23/london-marathon-josh-griffiths-jo-pavey-british-runnersAussiestatman wrote:
Aussiestatman wrote:
Next should be Florian Carvalho with a PB of 2.12.53 when 11th in Paris last year. Is no chance of ever gouging the 6 minutes required to chase a NR. That record dates back to the golden age of French marathonning, quirkily reported here:
https://www.time-to-run.com/marathon/paris/rotich-2003Florian previously was one of his country's most consistent 1500m runners from 2011 to 2013 with three times sub 3.34.
28th may be Josh Griffiths, whose PB of 2.14.25 was set here in finishing twentieth last year.
Aussiestatman wrote:
Aussiestatman wrote:
Third lady may be Roza Dereje, 22yo and ranked 8. Very impressive in winning Valencia in December in 2.18.30. Couldn’t finish like many others at the worlds. Third here in the spring in 2.20.51. In 2018 won Dubai and second in Chicago.
Here is my take on the running in Valencia:
won the second deepest run all year in Valencia in 2.18.30. Halfway in 69.18 alongside Birhane and Vivian, then Azmera Abreha caught them by 35k, making 4 together. Birhane led by 4 sec at 40k and Vivian had been dropped. Roza though had enough left to go past Birhane and hold off Azmera Abreha.
Is out only 8 days from the running.
Aussiestatman wrote:
Aussiestatman wrote:
A sizeable gap before the ninth athlete. None of the rest can make a dent on the top 8.
Gideon Kipketer, Sondre Moen, or Dewi Griffiths?
Around that same level of talent is another late addition, Benson Kipruto.
Aussiestatman wrote:
Aussiestatman wrote:
Gideon Kipketer, Sondre Moen, or Dewi Griffiths?
Around that same level of talent is another late addition, Benson Kipruto.
Fourth last October in his PB of 2.05.13 in Toronto as defending champ.
Aussiestatman wrote:
Aussiestatman wrote:
Next lady should be Helen Davies, now 41, who ran her PB last year of 2.34.08 in winning Brighton. That took 3 sec off her best time here in 2012, where she has a rich history. That year's event is still regarded as the greatest top 4 match-up not only here, but anywhere in history. There were 14 women who had previously gone sub 2.23. A preview is here:
http://www.marathonguide.com/news/exclusives/LondonMarathon_2012/LondonMarathon2012Preview.cfmIt seems from that that neither Kenya or Ethiopia had selected their athletes for the Olympics yet. British women were gunning for the 2.31 required to make their team and only two achieved that, including a debutant at this classic distance. Another, Louise Damen would miss by 37 sec. Louise made amends in 2014 finishing 8th in Osaka to send her to the Comm Games, finishing 7th there.
Back to Helen: her rich history as at 2012, was that that was the 5th straight year that she had finished up top 8 among her countrywomen including 2010 when her third among Britons earned her not only a trip to the Comm Games in India but also the Euros in Barcelona.
Next lady could be Natasha Cochram who was fifth in Dublin last October in her PB of 2.30.50. 21st here last year in 2.40.31.
Aussiestatman wrote:
DeeksQuarters wrote:
Would love to see Jack Rayner finish this high, he's a massive talent, but he had a big injury earlier in the year and has logged less than 3000 strava km in the year to date. Brett Robinson is a more likely pick for top Aussie on the men's side?
Interested to know who you think can win between Nick Earl and Julian Spence in the battle of the Inside Running podcast rivals? Forget Kipchoge/Bekele, that's the real head-to-head battle here!
Sticking with Jack at 14 even with the influx of some good Europeans hungry for Olympic qualification. Wait a few days for my call on Earl v Spence.
Sadly, neither seem to be on the start list anymore.
This story written today still has Dereje and Azimeraw involved. Might need to update their journalists.
Aussiestatman wrote:
Aussiestatman wrote:
Next may be Jack Rayner, still only 24yo
14th here last year in 2.11.06 then disappointing 22nd in New York in 2.16.58 after crossing halfway in 64.51.
Doesn't look to be on the elite list any more
Aussiestatman wrote:
Aussiestatman wrote:
Fifteenth woman should be Gerda Steyn. PB of 2.27.48 from her 11th in New York last November then 13th at RAK over the half this feb in 70.55. Is building to something special.
No doubt in my mind that Gerda gets the 24yo NR from the golden days of South African distance running. Back to the time when in 98 and 99 two of her country’s athletes fought over podium places in Chicago.
If the conditions when the sun comes up are as bad as some are predicting, Gerda could move a long way up the standings.
Aussiestatman wrote:
Aussiestatman wrote:
No doubt in my mind that Gerda gets the 24yo NR from the golden days of South African distance running. Back to the time when in 98 and 99 two of her country’s athletes fought over podium places in Chicago.
If the conditions when the sun comes up are as bad as some are predicting, Gerda could move a long way up the standings.
Gerda will need a 1.14 improvement in her PB to claim the NR.
Aussiestatman wrote:
Aussiestatman wrote:
If the conditions when the sun comes up are as bad as some are predicting, Gerda could move a long way up the standings.
Gerda will need a 1.14 improvement in her PB to claim the NR.
Or 2.34 if you include Boston 1994.
Aussiestatman wrote:
DeeksQuarters wrote:
Would love to see Jack Rayner finish this high, he's a massive talent, but he had a big injury earlier in the year and has logged less than 3000 strava km in the year to date. Brett Robinson is a more likely pick for top Aussie on the men's side?
Interested to know who you think can win between Nick Earl and Julian Spence in the battle of the Inside Running podcast rivals? Forget Kipchoge/Bekele, that's the real head-to-head battle here!
Brett was in the lead pack at halfway in New York last year in 64.50 but things went pear shaped after 22 miles. Miles 23 to 25 in 5.50, 6.08, and 6.33 to eventually finish 23rd in 2.17.50.
Warning bells must be ringing. halfway in 63.50. no way he goes sub 2.08
dodge ball wrote:
Aussiestatman wrote:
Following is my mini bio written this time last year about the coming London marathon:
Kipchoge must win it. He is the G.O.A.T. No doubt. World Record Holder, owner of two other of the top 8 times of all-time. Undefeated in London. Winner of many more majors. What else can be said? After winning in Berlin, breaking the WR, he said he was interested in winning another marathon in 2.02.something so he could be the only owner of a 2,01, 2.02, 2.03, etc. Before him, no one had run sub 61.00 for either half of a marathon. In Berlin he ran the second half in 60.33 after a 61.06 opening half. enough superlatives? He is 34 years old and has won two marathons, mostly majors, in 4 of the last 5 years.
Kipchoge has ran:
1:59:40
2:00:25
2:01:39
2:02:37
2:03:05
2:04:00
2:05:00
2:08:44
So he is missing 2:06 and 2:07. Maybe one day he will get those too!
This came to mind immediately after he was falling back in the last few km, dropped by a pack of 6 on 2.05.50 pace, most of who are able to go sub 2.04
Aussiestatman wrote:
Fifth to finish could be Vincent Kipchumba, also known last year as Vincent Toroitich, 29yo and ranked 6. Won Vienna in 2.06.56 and Amsterdam in 2.05.09. Previous best was 2.10.32 when second in Dresden in 2016. Experts at year end 2019 selected him top ten on the basis of those two wins. I lined them up against Shifera Tamru who had two times under 2.05.30 and placed Vincent outside my top twenty.
Proved the other year-end experts were right, he is top ten right now.