Sage has had some missteps with the 100 mile distance, falls, going out to fast, nutrition and fueling issues etc. If he can race smart and finish in top 3 to 5 that would be a giant leap in the right direction. If he chases Jim and others he may implode again.
Loren, wrote:
What about Sage?
Goucher Needles wrote:
Clearly there has to be some pacing and balance. I'm referring to the difference between the guys who regularly finish 5th to 10th place be never trying to contend for a win. Their strategies involve cruising safely along, finishing hours behind the winner (and the getting positive feedback for their "great" performances). This applies to numerous relatively big names in the sport.
My point is that those people are inferior to the athletes who take significant but calculated risks to contend to win races, but sometimes die a painful death in races. They're not running stupid, they're riding the edge of their potential, sometimes getting it wrong. That second group could run conservatively from the start in finish in the top ten in every race, but those folks would rather compete. They are superior to the runners who play it safe, even when they die and finish in 92nd place or not at all.
Well said. It's the double edged sword of running, not just ultramarathons but shorter distances of running. If you take it out hard, absolutely close to the "red line" from the beginning, you are going to have an "epic" day one way or another. Either you absolutely destroy your PR or you completely blow up and "walk it in". If you have to "walk it in" some will respect the hell out of you for your "old school running" where you just ran...you went for broke. Others will question your strategy and call you a "moran" for even attempting it.
Laney 3rd two years ago and 4th last year, which shows it was no fluke. For some reason, he doesn't get as much attention or consideration as other top Americans, but the dude is a stud. I hope he does well this weekend.
I want Wamsley to go out hard and be crushing everyone. Then around 40k to go I want Killian to catch back up, pat him on the back say "Sorry Amigo" and rocket away to a CR win. Then Jim to drops out demoralized and goes home to play run at 50k/50m.
Not Fast but Furious wrote:
Walmsley will go out with the intention of winning and setting a course record per usual. And then he will blow up in epic fashion and Killian will cruise to the win easily. Jim is a head case.
Wrong. You are the head case.
Idiot Alert wrote:
Not Fast but Furious wrote:Walmsley will go out with the intention of winning and setting a course record per usual. And then he will blow up in epic fashion and Killian will cruise to the win easily. Jim is a head case.
Wrong. You are the head case.
Sure. Jim only blew up twice back to back at Western States 100. First time he got lost, sat on the side of the trail and walked in for 20th place after being under CR. Then the next year he had a DNF after again going out way too aggressively.
Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it. And you're the idiot for not knowing the history of this head case runner.
Not Fast but Furious wrote:
Sure. I only blew up eight times on this one page already, which makes me a head case? Sure I DNF'd a few 5 minute periods, because I'm so full of c*** that I had to go potty but so what. First time I got lost, sat on the side of the floor and wet myself in for 20th place after being under my personal CR in an old women's walk. Then the next I had a DNF after again going out way too aggressively trying to keep up with a limping 95 year old with a cane, so that's nothing.
Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it. And you're the idiot for not knowing the history of this head case runner.
By your actions we do know you.
Walmsley's two Western States catastrophes are very different. In the first race his pacers couldn't keep up and he got lost. No human racing at the level he was that day have the capacity to navigate 93 miles into an event. Besides his pacers, I put that on the race directors. One shouldn't be able to get lost in the grandest ultra race in the country. If there's a sketchy turn, put a dude there. WS100 has about 5 volunteers for very racer. One of them should have been in a lawn chair at that turn.
This year's race was different. I believe Jim simply drank his own kool aide. He was under course record pace over 20 miles of postholing snow and then 30 miles of 105 degree heat. That's not brave or bold, it's foolish optimism born of excessive self confidence spurred on by a media storyline that he's superhuman. There's nothing like a good ass kicking to straighten that out.
It's really hard to be against Killian, but I'm leaning Walmsley for the win at UTMB. If the snow holds off, it'll be in course record fashion.
??
Last year Tollefson was 3rd and Laney was 4th. just FYI
Jim took a wrong turn. The next two runners got to that spot with the same course markings and didn't miss the turn, one of them was a rookie (Miller), so course knowledge wasn't a factor.
By several accounts, Jim was starting to slow down already before Rucky Chucky. When he went off course he was told several times he had enough of a lead to win anyway, but he was unable to go after it. His mind gave up and his body soon followed.
If he hadn't gone off couse? He would have won, maybe a bit under CR or a bit slower than CR. It's not entirely true to say that he blew up in his first WS attempt.
Time to race, we'll see if the coconino clown..errr cowboy will be up to its name. Weather conditions will be harsh, so don't rely on past year results to predict this year performances.
TDS in progress:
Avery Collins, biggest rising runner in the ultra world. He may never have elite road speed but mark my words, dude is going to be one of the most consistent and top placing runner the next 5-10 years. He has what the other elite speed guys don't appear to have, wisdom with the 100. I am sure a lot of guys can burn through a 50k or 50 miler, it takes another level of beast to run hard, technical courses and master the pacing of the 100. Who the hell runs a 200 miler at 23 for the adventure?? That's next level..
Time to start laying down your picks. Go as deep as you'd like:
1. J. Walmsley (CR)
2. Killian J.(also under the CR)
3. T. Tollefson (will run an uncharacteristically careful race)
4. Z. Miller (will run an uncharacteristically careful race)
5. F. D'Haene
6. D. Laney
7. Andrew Skurka (my dark horse for a potential podium)
8. D. Bowman
9. Xavier T.
10. Tofol C.
11. Sage
12-20: Schlarb, Symonds, Andrew Miller, Ghelfi, Browning, Chlorier, Chaigneau, Grinius
1. Jornet
2. D'Haene
3. Xavier Thévenard
Walmsley will finish Top 10
I missed a cut and paste. Tollefson will finish third by running a charateristically careful race. Miller will finish fourth by be uncharacteristically safe.
https://www.leafly.com/news/pop-culture/how-cannabis-helps-ultramarathoner-avery-collins-run-100-milesthis is awesome wrote:
Avery Collins, biggest rising runner in the ultra world. He may never have elite road speed but mark my words, dude is going to be one of the most consistent and top placing runner the next 5-10 years. He has what the other elite speed guys don't appear to have, wisdom with the 100. I am sure a lot of guys can burn through a 50k or 50 miler, it takes another level of beast to run hard, technical courses and master the pacing of the 100. Who the hell runs a 200 miler at 23 for the adventure?? That's next level..
Stra wrote:
Time to race, we'll see if the coconino clown..errr cowboy will be up to its name.
1. Hawks
2. Everyone else
Goucher Needles wrote:
Time to start laying down your picks. Go as deep as you'd like:
11 + 8 = 19