subfive--
Good comments.
"female sprinters have less power then male runners of any type (generally) and yet many of them can with their relatively slight bodies blow the doors off some male sprinters above the 98 percentile."
I'm not sure what you're trying to say here. I assume you're comparing female sprinters with male sprinters, because female sprinters certainly have way more power than male distance runners, or even male middle distance runners.
98 percentile what? 98 percentile of female elite sprinters? Sorry, I can't make out what you're saying.
My point was that women, for the same body volume, have smaller bones and more body fat than men, assuming they train the same, and are natural; that is why they have a lower BMI, because for the same body volume, their body weight is less. That is why you cannot compare female sprinter BMI to male sprinter BMI, because the females will make it look like lower-BMI males are capable of the same relative level of performance as are the naturally-lower-BMI females, when they are generally not so capable.
Hence the apples-to-oranges objection.
"Females are not as strong as males of comparable size. And there are "relatively" small females with relatively low power to weight who can sprint well below 12 sec."
Well, let's talk body mass. I personally have seen elite women sprinters doing very impressive weights that involve sprinting muscles. When their relatively low body weight is taken into account, they are vastly stronger than many men, including for instance, middle-distance men, in lower-body/core movements.
However, that says nothing about your second point, which is somewhat correct. 12.0 is NOT a fast sprint time, and there are plenty of women who can run sub-12 FAT from the blocks...but when you say "relatively" lower power-to-weight ratios, relative to whom? The elites? Their power-to-weight is certainly quite high, that is what sprinting/acceleration is all about. It is certainly vastly higher than that of male distance runners.
Agreed that there are many males with slight builds who sprint below 12. Absolutely. Again, especially for men, 12 is nothing special. Most of those under-12 slight-build guys are young, BTW, before their bones have fully grown, and before their neurology begins to change. But you're doing the same thing here--you "think" it is a mistake to "assume" that nearly all can't sprint a sub-12 100m.
I'm saying that it isn't a mistake, and that the single data point supports this view--which is one more data point than your view has.
Again, I would remind you that Mo could have run 10m faster and he STILL WOULDN'T HAVE BROKEN 12. Do you realize how huge that is?
And again, I'm not saying that absolutely no trained distance runner could break 12. I'm saying that I would have to see it, and analyze it, to believe it.
What is a true distance runner? Someone who is good at distance but is not primarily a middle-distance runner. Take Rupp, for instance. Most people I know consider 800m to be middle-distance, and even the 1500/mile. (Personally I put the 1500/mile squarely into distance endurance, but whatever.) So let's say Rupp can go 3:50 for a mile. That's great, for sure, but I wouldn't say that makes him primarily a middle-distance runner. Although he is great at mid-d, he is a true distance runner--although cases like his are the most difficult, and especially when guys are juiced it is much more difficult to make such distinctions.
Taking your figures, name me one single sub-13:30 5k runner who has demonstrated a FAT sub-12 at the same time in his career as he was serious in the 5k.
"so now you are just saying that WCDRs don't normally "try" to go sub-12."
No, I'm saying that while distance is being trained seriously, no such athlete will go under 12, even if they otherwise had the capability when not seriously training distance. Again using your figure, show me anybody who has demonstrated FAT sub-12 capability while doing 100-mile weeks.
I don't know why this topic has such legs. It would be like me coming on here and using all of your arguments in reverse, that because some guy like Solinsky with a relatively higher BMI can lay down a killer 10k time, that all elite sprinters could go sub-30, or sub-34, or whatever. I would never make such a claim, because on a balance of probabilities standard, whatever evidence I could muster would not be sufficient, especially in view of available results.
What is amazing, however, is the range we're now seeing. I'm thinking in particular of guys like Jeilan, and in particular Eaton. Coe may have been another, but just think about Eaton.
I don't think there has ever been anybody like him. He's even better than Daley Thompson, and his 1500m absolutely crushes that of any of the other great decathletes who were good over the 100m--O'Brien, Clay, Thompson, Huffins, Nool, Hardee. Amazing.
Guys like him, and whatever he is doing, are breaking the mold. When we have seen this kind of range in the past, it may have been reason for suspicion, and for good reason: training is specific. The better you get at one thing, the worse you get at another thing that has different requirements. Sprinting and distance running have very different requirements. Nobody's claiming that Eaton's 1500m time is anywhere near elite, but it's unbelievably great for a 10.2 sprinter.
Is there the distance equivalent of Eaton? I have already stated my belief that a guy like Jeilan could exhibit great range, especially down to 200m. Is there an elite distance runner who could go under 12? Possibly, but I need better proof than anybody has offered before I would believe it.