THREE KENYANS BANNED FOR DOPING

Kenyans always had urine tests. These were the first blood tests, not the first drug tests of any kind.

I'm quite happy to talk about facts, but let's make sure the facts are straight. Like the comment above, I wasn't following that closely, but I thought these were the first "blood" tests, not the first "out of competition tests" in Kenya. And even that confuses me, because I've seen references to suspect blood profiles directing targeted testing. Maybe that blood was collected outside Kenya. Nevertheless, there are many Kenyans outside Kenya. Wanjiru was based in Japan.

And this recent light of several names that have since failed a drug test to me still looks very dim. Kisorio is the biggest name caught, and I forget now, but wasn't it for steroids? Loyanae was caught for EPO, and has a good time, but I disagree with the poster who said "THIS IS BIG!!!". These are the biggest fish, and they are too few and too small, to support claims of widespread doping. The German journalist gave his documentary too soon. He needed to stay undercover longer. Even Kiptanui's interview gave very little substance beyond accusations that some athletes are looking for shortcuts to get rich quick. There are so few facts, it is not possible to say that whether these are rare exceptions, caused by greedy athletes and unethical managers, or just the "tip of the iceberg" of a large long-term undercover nationwide campaign that would make Ma blush.

You also mention that other federations are not up in arms over it. That's another one of the points I make from time to time. Which athlete or coach or federation or otherwise relevant official thinks East Africans are doping? Any respected journalists? For me, with Armstrong, it was important that he was being accused by other cyclists, and by journalists who closely covered the sport. I don't see this parallel with Kenyans and Ethiopians in distance running. The only ones making these accusations are anonymous forum posters, usually based on no more evidence than time.

rekrunner wrote:

Kisorio is the biggest name caught, and I forget now, but wasn't it for steroids?

Kisorio was CAUGHT with steroids - but later admitted to taking EPO despite never testing positive for it. Testing (esp in kenya) is a joke.

You really think these random dudes are better than PAUL TERGAT??

Ho Hum wrote:

Several Japanese runners have run 2:08 with comparatively awful track times, and they've hardly had any dopers in their ranks.

This should read, "38 Japanese runners have run 2:06-2:08 with comparatively awful track times, and they've had zero dopers in their ranks."

Well I'm certainly uninformed in that area, but I won't go as far as J.R. and say it's all drug company propaganda to make them rich. I guess due to the ethical nature of blood doping, there are not many controlled studies.I don't know about how all those other parameters change (heart rate, plasma volume variability and stroke volume) with EPO/blood doping. I've seen a few people argue (you?) that more red blood cells make thicker blood, which is harder to pump, effectively neutralizing any benefit. I also thought that EPO doesn't help so much during a race (i.e. by increasing oxygen delivery), but improves recovery. The main benefit for cyclists taking EPO, is that they can push hard on a mountain stage or time trial, and still compete the next day. Or they are still "fresh" the third week of a grand tour. Similarly, for a distance runner, the main benefit would be during training, allowing harder training, rather than during the race (unless we speak of a 3 week ultra-marathon in the mountains).You can't really even argue that cyclists prove EPO works, because they were also taking testosterone, steroids, cortisone, and HGH. These cycling anecdotes are uncontrolled studies at their worst.I would settle for studies that merely look at time though, ignoring all these other blood measurements. As important as RBC and HcT and MCV are, they don't tell me how the times are affected. When measuring a performance, only time (and place -- with a nod to malmo) matters. There are some "hi-lo" altitude studies that show 20 second improvements over 5K after just a few weeks, that last for a few weeks. This at least suggests altitude matters, for these amateur subjects who participated in the study. And it suggests to me that altitude also matters, for East Africans, who have lived many generations at altitude. (Hence my previous question about altitude tents being responsible for helping close the gap.) Now studies like this suffer from things like not being "double-blind" studies -- the participants, and testers, knew when they were at altitude. So you still can't rule out a placebo effect. Training in Flagstaff (or Kenya) helps athletes, but it might just be the quiet time dedicated to training that explains it.There is a cycling study that showed the effects of EPO, but its main conclusion was an improvement in time to exhaustion at some fixed power output. It's hard to see how that translates to distance running.

No. I think these random dudes are second rate athletes. That's exactly why I think the recent busts look more like individual exceptions, rather than an indication of a nationwide problem. I think they were lied to, and convinced to take drugs they didn't need, that may or may not have helped them.If someone caught one or more of Wanjiru, or Lel, or Kwambai, or Kibet, or Mutai, or Makau, or Bekele, or Geb or Mosop or even Tergat, then these busts would count much more.BTW, Loyanai produced the 50th best time, and is the 33rd best marathon performer. Tergat has the 19th best time, and is the 15th best performer.

brain fried? wrote:

Kisorio was CAUGHT with steroids - but later admitted to taking EPO despite never testing positive for it. Testing (esp in kenya) is a joke.

You really think these random dudes are better than PAUL TERGAT??

So if these dozens of guys going faster than Tergat are second rate athletes - how are they going faster than Tergat?

And don't talk about 'mental barriers'. That is garbage - Tergat is one of the greatest athletes ever, and knew how to push his body to the limit.

How do you get from here?

rekrunner wrote:

Even Kiptanui's interview gave very little substance beyond accusations that some athletes are looking for shortcuts to get rich quick.

To here?

]rekrunner wrote:

The only ones making these accusations are anonymous forum posters, usually based on no more evidence than time.

Seems to me that we have much more than anonymous posters making accusations. There are accredited journalist and even the athletes themselves starting to make accusations about an environment full of unscrupulous agents/coaches, unregulated pharmaceuticals with Athletics Kenya as overlord. While it is clear that you see these as blips on the PED radar screen surely you can see why others see this as smoke leading to a fire.

This really is no different than when everything starting falling apart in cycling a decade ago. No material numbers but a leak in the damn here and there and the whole thing has excellent potential to start falling apart.

Maybe you should clarify what random dudes you meant. If you mean the ones busted recently in Kenya, none of them were faster than Tergat.The ones I mentioned going faster were Wanjiru, Geb, Makau, Mutai, etc. These are not who I meant as second rate random dudes. Maybe the only surprises are Ethiopians in Dubai.And you also can't compare Tergat's time in 2003, to any times since Geb broke his record.

brain fried? wrote:

So if these dozens of guys going faster than Tergat are second rate athletes - how are they going faster than Tergat?

And don't talk about 'mental barriers'. That is garbage - Tergat is one of the greatest athletes ever, and knew how to push his body to the limit.

Kiptanui gave nothing of substance. The interview was too short. He said something like the athletes who were busted are motivated by greed. He didn't accuse any top Kenyan athletes by name, or all athletes collectively. He mentioned something about a being big problem but that could mean anything -- even a few no-name busts are damaging to Kenya's reputation -- that could be considered a big problem. It's all quite vague, and too early to tell if these are isolated incidents, or a big cover-up bursting at the seams. So far Athletics Kenya hasn't been implicated by anyone, except maybe for the quantity and quality of their testing.There is only one journalist. He did break the "Contador" bust, so he must have some credentials. But with the Kenyan story, he also was vague, saying he found a doctor, and a file of one athlete, and a store, and therefore the problem is widespread. He got one name, but didn't accuse her of doping. His evidence was too circumstantial and too flimsy. This is not like BALCO, or Operation Puerto, or USADA taking down Lance, or Walsh writing a book, or L'Equipe exposing the 1999 EPO tests. It's one guy who spoke prematurely based on a little circumstantial evidence, probably because of some internal deadline. At this point, it only merits further investigation to see if there is even any smoke, or if it is just a bunch of duds.Neither Seppelt or Kiptanui made any specific accusations. They didn't claim that 2:05 times are only possible with EPO. They both just made vague references that the problem is widespread.This is not like cycling at all. Not even close. In cycling, many insiders and outsiders believed that the whole peloton was dirty. Kiptanui and Seppelt did not say the whole country was dirty. LeMond accused Armstrong in 2001, because of Dr. Ferrari's reputation. In cycling, journalists had scientific evidence, and interviewed many witnesses who gave direct testimony. They talked about omerta in cycling. Cyclists spoke at their own peril. Who claims there is omerta in Kenya? No one.To support allegations, and make it more like cycling, we need to see some evidence of bigger names, and some evidence that there is structural support.

Jefe in the CO wrote:

Seems to me that we have much more than anonymous posters making accusations. There are accredited journalist and even the athletes themselves starting to make accusations about an environment full of unscrupulous agents/coaches, unregulated pharmaceuticals with Athletics Kenya as overlord. While it is clear that you see these as blips on the PED radar screen surely you can see why others see this as smoke leading to a fire.

This really is no different than when everything starting falling apart in cycling a decade ago. No material numbers but a leak in the damn here and there and the whole thing has excellent potential to start falling apart.

I'm not much on physiology but I'm pretty good at rhetoric and the rhetoric around this whole thing has always looked fishy to me.

There was a time when we read, and not just from Renato, that there was no doping in Kenya because their culture resisted using medicines and drugs of any kind, that the country was too poor to import something like EPO, that even if EPO was imported there wasn't enough refrigeration in the country to be able to use it, that Kenyan runners were confident enough in their own abilities that they were not interested in using PEDs and finally, that they were all so fit that something like EPO won't improve their performances.

Now we learn that there is indeed EPO in Kenya, that it's not that hard to get and that there are Kenyans who have used it. Now we're down to "only the slower ones use it, the fastest ones are too fit for it to help," a claim that may be true but is certainly unsubstantiated. Add to that the widespread use of PEDs in other sports where there is a lot of money to be won and it's hard for me not to be suspicious. But like you, I don't claim to know.

One reason I'm more interested in competition than in times because I reckon that anyone contesting for the win at a major event is likely doing what everyone else contesting for that win is doing so it's only the times and not the outcomes that are influenced.

There are so many variables that require sorting out before people can make informed decisions about PEDs. But the basic fact remains, they are rife in our sport. Not as rife as cycling, because track and field has to deal with gravity more directly and body impact curtails how hard one can train, PEDs or not. So cycling and swimming and weightlifting as examples have low to zero impact.

Distance running is the lowest impact area of track and field and certain drugs which enable more training are more effective here.

However, if people could just see with your eyes they would know. As a qualitative study, just compare what known EPO users look like at end of race and compare. They all have a 'certain' look about them. Some say they look high.

rekrunner wrote:

Maybe you should clarify what random dudes you meant.

The random dudes I meant who are now faster than tegat? I wasn't talking about the busted guys - we KNOW they were dirty. I'm talking about the guys who are unbusted and so in theory better than tergat legitimately.

This guy is better than Tergat? Never recorded an international result prior to age 27 - then one year later runs 2:04:16? Faster than Tergat and virtually faster than Geb? Two superstars who took MANY shots at the marathon? IN HIS DEBUT?

Oh - and yeah he was also lying about his age initially. I'm sure this guy would never cheat. All of Kiptunai's talk must just be lies...

This is what's known as confirmation bias. Try doing your doping test with random runners who you DON'T know are cheaters.

I agree 100%. It seems like some people on this message board are trying to take the attention away from the real issues, and bringing up the same old argument about being born on altitude, walking 10K a day as a child, and some other bull crap. All done to explain the African dominance. But never accept the fact that the Africans could be using PEDs and getting away with.

[quote]gO aFRIkA wrote:

I agree 100%. It seems like some people on this message board are trying to take the attention away from the real issues, and bringing up the same old argument about being born on altitude, walking 10K a day as a child, and some other bull crap.

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Agreed. What they always fail to mention is that PEDS can and do give, not a slight advantage, but a tremendous one.

i'm happy to take a shot at this question & i have a good amount of confidence in the numbers

from another thread :

It's not valid to compare Tergat of 10 years ago, to athletes today. Maybe Tergat could have run faster, using an optimal race strategy, or better pacemakers, but he didn't have to. Like all events, the marathon has moved forward in the last 10 years. Expectations of times have dropped, competition has increased, and courses are now organized with pacemakers to target a certain time.It's also difficult at all to compare marathons on different courses, and even the same marathon from year to year.Looking at Paul Tergat, the ARRS attempts to remove course and condition biases, and his 2:04:55 time in London 2003, while 19th overall, doesn't even factor in the top 100 "bias adjusted" times. He was aided by more than 2 minutes by favorable conditions. They consider Tergat's best performance his 2002 London performance of 2:05:48 (with only 17 seconds of "aid" from conditions), ranking 31st all time. (Note that that page hasn't been updated since Dec. 2011).Tergat may be every bit the talented champion you think he is, but his times are quite weak by today's standards, and are a poor benchmark to judge today's marathon performances.I still don't know what you mean by "all of Kiptanui's talk" -- I only heard one short 3 minute interview -- a reaction to the recent bans. He didn't mention Dennis Kipruto Kimetto. He only claims there is a problem that needs to be solved. I don't claim he's lying, just that he didn't say anything specific. You can't really draw any specific conclusions from Kiptanui (or Seppelt). Only the vague allegation that there is a general problem which may or may not be big.

brain fried? wrote:

The random dudes I meant who are now faster than tegat? I wasn't talking about the busted guys - we KNOW they were dirty. I'm talking about the guys who are unbusted and so in theory better than tergat legitimately.

http://www.iaaf.org/athletes/kenya/dennis-kipruto-kimetto

This guy is better than Tergat? Never recorded an international result prior to age 27 - then one year later runs 2:04:16? Faster than Tergat and virtually faster than Geb? Two superstars who took MANY shots at the marathon? IN HIS DEBUT?

Oh - and yeah he was also lying about his age initially. I'm sure this guy would never cheat. All of Kiptunai's talk must just be lies...

HRE,

You are good at giving rhetoric, or detecting it? :-) I appreciate you might be suspicious, but this evolution in events is not contradictory. Reality changes over time. 10 years ago, maybe there was little electricity, and it was unreliable. These things change over time.

But if all these bad things are happening, I only hope that like cycling, these things will eventually be found out by new detection techniques like biological passports and improved testing.